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In this Jan. 31, 2014 file photo, President Barack Obama speaks in the East Room of the White House in Washington. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)
In this Jan. 31, 2014 file photo, President Barack Obama speaks in the East Room of the White House in Washington. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

Research Report

A swoon by June? Markets enter weakest part of the 'Presidential Cycle' Add to ...

Globe editors have posted this research report with permission of S&P Capital IQ. This should not be construed as an endorsement of the report’s recommendations. For more on The Globe’s disclaimers please read here. The following is excerpted from the report:

As we turn the page to a new month and a new quarter, history reminds us that equity price performances have traditionally been weaker than normal during mid-term election years (MTEYs). Price returns during these four-year cycle lows have been atypically negative in January, but then frequently favorable in February. What’s more, March also typically posted an gain, just before a string of sub-par performances from April through September, with two-thirds of these months recording average declines.

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This year, the S&P 500 has recorded consistent MTEY results. My concern is that without a renewing catalyst, the seasonally vulnerable second and third quarters could prove similarly challenging to equity investors as they have in the past.

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