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Don Vialoux.
Don Vialoux.

BNN MARKET CALL

Three top stock picks from Horizons’ Don Vialoux Add to ...

Don Vialoux is Research Analyst at Horizons ETF Management Canada. His focus is technical analysis and seasonal investing.

Top Picks:

United States Oil Fund

(Not currently held personally or in the fund)

Crude oil enters into a seasonal sweet spot from February 12 to April 22. Average gain per period during the past 30 periods was 9.0 per cent. The trade has been successful in 21 of the past 30 periods including nine of the past 10 periods. Strength is related to greater demand related to increasing economic activity into spring.

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Horizons Comex Silver ETF

(Purchased by the fund on December 27)

Silver entered into a period of seasonal strength from late December to the beginning of March. Average gain per period during the past 16 periods was 11.0 per cent. The trade was profitable in 11 of the past 16 periods.

iShares China Large-Cap ETF

(Not currently held personally or in the fund)

The Chinese equity market has a period of seasonal strength from the end of December to the end of April. Average return per period during the past 20 periods was 9.0 per cent. The trade has been profitable in 15 of the past 20 periods. Strength typically enters the market just before the Chinese New Year.

Past Picks: February 20, 2013 (figures in US$)

United States Gasoline Fund

Then: $64.27; Now: $58.98 -8.24%; Total return: -8.24%

Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

Then: $57.35; Now: $70.63 +23.16%; Total return: +24.91%

iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF

Then: $60.82; Now: $69.88 +14.90%; Total return: +18.77%

Total return average: +10.81%

Market outlook:

North American equity markets have a history during a U.S. mid-term election year of moving higher from late February until mid-April followed by a correction until the beginning of October followed by a strong upside move to close at a high for the year. Political rhetoric has a significant impact on economic prospects and equity market returns during the year. History is about to repeat.

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  • USO-N
  • HUZ-T
  • FXI-N
  • UGA-N
  • RSP-N
  • DVY-N
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