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What the Charts Say

How technical indicators fared in 2012 Add to ...

Let’s look back on the performance of the 52 stocks submitted last year for the weekly column “What the Charts Say.” As usual, this report will cover a 12-month period from the beginning of December, 2011, to the same point in 2012, to allow the most recent suggestions time to mature.

2012 was a volatile year for North American stock markets. The U.S. market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index rallied 12.4 per cent to early April, declined 9.6 per cent to late May, appreciated 14.3 per cent to early September, lost 7.7 per cent to mid-November and moved up 5.4 per cent to finish the year at 1,426.18, for a 13.4 per cent gain in 2012.

More Related to this Story

At the same time, the Toronto market, as measured by the S&P/TSX composite index, began the year at 11,955, rose 6.6 per cent to late February, declined 11.5 per cent by mid-May and ended the year at 12,434 for a mere 4.0 per cent gain for the year.

There was only one “sell” recommendation for this period (BHP Billiton) and it was closed at a loss. At the same time, there were 34 positive results vs. 17 losses among the 51 “buy” recommendations, for a success ratio of 66.7 per cent. The average gain for all positions was 12.9 per cent; the best result was on Catamaran, recommended in February, which was ahead 73.6 per cent, and the worst was a loss of 18.2 per cent by Yamana Gold, first recommended in February.

Where will the ideas come from in 2013?

January was an especially strong month in New York; it could well be the harbinger for this year. The S&P 500 Index hit a 4½-year high in January and maybe ahead if itself at this time, but the strength of the U.S. market suggest further upside targets. Consumer staple stocks such as Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark and Kellogg are moving to all-time highs; pharmaceuticals (Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Bristol-Myers Squibb) are surging ahead; and General Electric and Deere have made significant base formations to propel them higher.

At the same time, the Toronto market is still lagging, however there has been major improvement in the energy sector, where Ensign Energy Services, Husky Energy, Precision Drilling and Suncor are on the verge of new uplegs and stocks in the utility sector (Atco, Emera, Enbridge and Fortis) continue to provide leadership.

Look for other ideas in the “What the Charts Say” column every Saturday.

Happy investing for 2013!

 

"What the charts said" in 2012

Name Symbol Pub.
Date
Price at
Pub.
date
Action
Advised
Recent
price *
%
Gain/
Loss
Carter's CRI-N 03-Dec 39.74 BUY 60.54 52.30%
Hornbeck HOS-N 10-Dec 34.62 BUY 38.8 12.10%
Myers MYE-N 17-Dec 12.87 BUY 15.5 20.40%
FamilyDollarStores FDO-T 24-Dec 58.67 BUY 63.5 8.20%
Wal-Mart WMT-T 31-Dec 59.76 BUY 69.5 16.30%
Empire EMP.A-T 07-Jan 58.8 BUY 61.17 4.00%
Canadian Tire CTC.A-T 14-Jan 63.65 BUY 68.75 8.00%
Caterpillar CAT-N 21-Jan 105.64 BUY 98.75 -6.50%
Sempra Energy SRE-N 28-Jan 57.67 BUY 75.73 31.30%
Inmet Mining IMN-T 04-Feb 69.43 BUY 60.5 -12.90%
Catamaran ** CCT-T 11-Feb 30.8 BUY 53.48 73.60%
Franco-Nevada FNV-T 18-Feb 42.07 BUY 54.05 28.50%
Yamana Gold YRI-T 25-Feb 17.72 BUY 14.5 -18.20%
Tyson Foods TSN-N 04-Mar 19.43 BUY 18.3 -5.80%
Eli Lilly & Co LLY-N 11-Mar 39.56 BUY 54.2 37.00%
VGI Group GIB.A-T 18-Mar 21.41 BUY 24.9 16.30%
Bellatrix Exploration BXE-T 25-Mar 5.33 BUY 4.6 -13.70%
Stantec STN-T 01-Apr 31.8 BUY 40.73 28.10%
Rogers Communication RCI.B-T 08-Apr 39.44 BUY 46.37 17.60%
Cheniere Energy LNG-A 15-Apr 16.86 BUY 21.57 27.90%
Plains Explor. & Prod. PXP-N 22-Apr 40.01 BUY 48.12 20.30%
AES AES-N 29-Apr 12.45 BUY 11.75 -5.60%
Microsoft MSFT-Q 06-May 30.98 BUY 29.75 -4.00%
Parkland Fuel PKI-T 13-May 13.92 BUY 20 43.70%
LSI Corp. LSI-N 20-May 7.19 BUY 6.9 -4.00%
CVS Caremark CVS-N 27-May 44.98 BUY 51.58 14.70%
Toromont Ind. TIH-T 03-Jun 20.63 BUY 19.9 -3.50%
Intel INTC-Q 10-Jun 26.41 BUY 24.5 -7.20%
Lennar Corp. LEN-N 17-Jun 25.9 BUY 41.07 58.60%
Lockheed Martin LMT-N 24-Jun 85.35 BUY 87.22 2.20%

* As of Feb. 2, 2013 or stop/loss price
** was SXC-T

Total positions: 52
Positive results: 34
Negative results: 18
Success ratio: 65.4%

Total gains: 564%
Average gain: 12.9%
Best result: 73.6%
Worst result: -18.2%

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