Gold investors are getting excited about the prospect of another round of U.S. quantitative easing, the experimental policy that involves the Federal Reserve printing money to buy government bonds and stimulating the economy in the process. The Fed has attempted two rounds already, and with the economic recovery now stumbling, some observers believe a third round could be in the works.
At least two Fed officials have supported these hopes. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president William Dudley told the Bronx Chamber of Commerce that "it's possible" the Fed could do another round of easing, echoing a similar sentiment from Federal Reserve vice-chair Janet Yellen last week.
Gold jumped to a one-month high of $1,700 (U.S.) an ounce on Tuesday, and continued to rise on Wednesday morning, to $1,710. Gold investors love the idea of governments starting up the printing presses because they believe such actions devalue currencies and make gold an attractive alternative.
However, Pierre Lapointe, global macro strategist at Brockhouse Cooper, believes Fed officials might simply be jawboning the possibility of quantitative easing here – that is, talking up the possibility of more monetary policy stimulus to convince people that it still has the ability to give the economy a boost. Taking action is another matter, though.
"By opening up to the possibility of QE3, the Fed wants to convince consumers and investors that it still has tools in its toolbox," he said in a note to clients. "But in our opinion, the effectiveness of another round of quantitative easing would be questionable at this point."
He argued that the second round of easing – or QE2, which was announced about a year ago – put a lot of money into the economy, but had little impact on the growth. That's because money ultimately flowed into risky assets or went into overseas investments. And instead of increasing their lending, banks simply put their money in deposits at the Fed. QE3 would likely yield similar results.
