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Odds of a GM bailout: 40 per cent

Globe and Mail Blog Post


The latest efforts of General Motors Corp. to get a U.S. government handout, which include a compelling YouTube video, aren't working with regular investors – if Intrade, the online prediction market, counts as regular.

Intrade has initiated a market for whether the U.S. government will inject $20-billion (U.S.) or more into the Big Three auto industry before the end of 2008. Last Friday, the odds suggested that the chances of a bailout were more than 80 per cent. Now, that percentage has dropped to just 40 per cent.