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Press release from PR Newswire

Political Risks Dampen Short-Term Outlook, According to Investors at Credit Suisse's Third Annual Global Macro Conference in New York

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Political Risks Dampen Short-Term Outlook, According to Investors at Credit Suisse's Third Annual Global Macro Conference in New York13:56 EDT Tuesday, May 22, 2012NEW YORK, May 22, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Credit Suisse recently held its third annual Global Macro Investors Conference in New York, bringing investors and experts together to dissect and discuss the major themes facing today's financial markets. The event drew about 250 attendees in a forum that examined the host of global issues that are part of every investment decision, and collected data via snap polls of the investors representing hedge funds, long-only money managers, banks, insurers and other financial market participants. (Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20091204/CSLOGO) "Euro break up fears, China slowdown fears, near-zero rates in the developed world, continued turmoil in the Middle East and a gyrating outlook for growth in the United States are just a few of the major issues facing markets, all against a backdrop of an opaque and evolving regulatory framework," said Eric Miller, Co-Head of Securities Research & Analytics at Credit Suisse. "Our Global Macro Conference puts all these issues out on the table with views and analysis to help clients separate the facts from the noise and make sound investment decisions." Bearish in the Short Term, Bullish Longer TermResponses from investors at the conference were especially telling about the intense focus on political risks in the near-term. 29% of investors believe there will be a Greek exit from the euro zone by the end of 2012, and 42% think that should Greece exit the euro, it will lead to an eventual full-fledged breakup of the euro currency. For the U.S., 70% of respondents believe the top priority for investors is fiscal reform, yet only a very small portion ? roughly 3% ­? expect that Washington will be able to effectively tackle fiscal issues by year-end 2013.The focus on short-term political challenges is leading to a more bearish-than-usual outlook for stocks, with only 59% of respondents saying equities are a preferred asset class over a one-year horizon. That contrasts with 88% who prefer equities over a 10-year horizon. Over that decade period, 29% of the respondents believe that Europe will provide the best risky asset returns, while 29% believe the best returns will come from emerging markets excluding China.   Other poll results included: 59% believe the U.S. will enter a new recession before the end of 2014 6% think China will have a hard landing (<7% GDP, 2 or more quarters) in the next 12 months 69% believe the first U.S. Fed rate hike will be in 2014 or later 48% believe that Brent oil will be less than $100/barrel at the end of 2012 68% expect global technology to outperform any other sector over the next 12 months. Further results from the investor poll are available on request. Credit Suisse's Global Macro ConferenceCredit Suisse launched the Global Macro Conference in 2010 as a unique annual forum to bring clients face-to-face with the world's preeminent financial, governmental, and academic experts from inside and outside Credit Suisse. A joint effort from the Bank's Research and Securities departments, the conference has quickly become one of the pre-eminent forums for thought leadership on global investing. Presentations, panels and keynote speeches were delivered by a global lineup of government and industry experts. Among this year's top external speakers and panelists were Peter Thiel, Founder of Clarium Capital Management; Rodgin Cohen, Senior Partner at Sullivan and Cromwell; Glenn Hubbard, Dean of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University and Nirupama Rao, Assistant Professor of Economics and Public Policy at New York University. Credit Suisse experts on hand included Chief Economist Dr. Neal Soss; Non-Japan Asia Economist Dong Tao; Mike Williams, Deputy Head of Americas Public Policy;  Head of Global Demographics and Pension Research Amlan Roy; Global Fixed Income Strategist James Sweeney; Global Head of Equity Strategy Andrew Garthwaite;  Head of Energy Research Jan Stuart; Head of Market Strategies Sean Shepley; and Head of Credit Strategy William Porter. The conference also serves as a showcase for Credit Suisse PLUS, the bank's innovative source of client-focused electronic solutions that span research, analytics and trading. Credit Suisse PLUS has recently broadened its offering of electronic solutions across interest rate products, structured products, foreign exchange and credit. Credit Suisse AGCredit Suisse AG is one of the world's leading financial services providers and is part of the Credit Suisse group of companies (referred to here as 'Credit Suisse'). As an integrated bank, Credit Suisse offers clients its combined expertise in the areas of private banking, investment banking and asset management. Credit Suisse provides advisory services, comprehensive solutions and innovative products to companies, institutional clients and high-net-worth private clients globally, as well as to retail clients in Switzerland. Credit Suisse is headquartered in Zurich and operates in over 50 countries worldwide. The group employs approximately 48,700 people. The registered shares (CSGN) of Credit Suisse's parent company, Credit Suisse Group AG, are listed in Switzerland and, in the form of American Depositary Shares (CS), in New York. Further information about Credit Suisse can be found at www.credit-suisse.com.Investment BankingIn its Investment Banking business, Credit Suisse offers securities products and financial advisory services to users and suppliers of capital around the world. Operating in 57 locations across 30 countries, Credit Suisse is active across the full spectrum of financial services products including debt and equity underwriting, sales and trading, mergers and acquisitions, investment research, and correspondent and prime brokerage services.SOURCE Credit Suisse AGFor further information: Steven Vames, Credit Suisse, telephone +1-212-325-0932, steven.vames@credit-suisse.com