Aaron White has suddenly found his services in as much demand as the latest version of Grand Theft Auto. The 29-year-old is about to graduate with a certificate as a petroleum engineering technologist from the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology in Calgary and already has several job offers.
Two years ago he was an underemployed University of Calgary graduate working as a server in a restaurant. Today he can command a starting salary of between $60,000 and $65,000 a year.
"A couple of years ago I looked around this city and realized the future was in energy," Mr. White says. "But energy companies don't want people with basic bachelor of science degrees; they want people with technical skills, so I went back to school.
"The demand is enormous."
Enormous indeed, say researchers, educators and the industry itself. Canada's wealth of natural resources puts it centre stage on world markets. The question is, can we supply all the engineers, scientists and technologists that will be needed to get those resources out of the ground and into the hands of eager consumers?
In Alberta, provincial forecasts suggest there will be a shortage of 6,000 energy industry engineers within 10 years, says Elizabeth Cannon, dean of the Schulich School of Engineering at the University of Calgary.
The mining industry will need 92,000 more workers by 2017 and a significant chunk will be engineers and engineering technologists, says Ryan Montpellier, executive director of the Mining Industry Human Resources Council in Ottawa.
The fact is, universities alone can not cope with the huge surge in demand, says Anis Farah, director of the school of engineering at Laurentian University in Sudbury. His school will graduate just 15 to 17 mining, chemical and mechanical engineers this year, although Laurentian is now gearing up to significantly increase its class sizes.
Currently only nine universities offer mining engineering, Dr. Farah says. And those nine graduate only between 120 and 150 new mining engineers a year, says Mr. Montpellier.
"Three years ago, our first-year class for all engineering courses was just 20, last year it was 80 and this fall we will have 110 students," Dr. Farah says. "Meeting the enormous demand for engineers in this sector is a major challenge. I am not at all certain if industry has any solutions."
University administrators say a number of factors are lining up to create a wave that may overwhelm Canada's ability to capitalize on the huge global demand for its resources.
As Mary MacDonald, dean of the MacPhail School of Energy at SAIT, points out, global appetite for oil and gas seems certain to continue well beyond the next decade. With world oil prices predicted to hit the $200 a barrel mark, and with Canada sitting on what many suggest is the second-largest oil reserves in the world, this country is well positioned to benefit.
Alberta alone has between $100-billion and $150-billion in new oil projects on the drawing board right now, says Dr. Cannon.
At the same time, however, demographics are working against us, Ms. MacDonald says. The huge bulge of baby boomers is now nearing retirement and the next generation is significantly leaner in numbers.
"About 25 per cent of all petroleum technicians are now in their 50s," she notes.
In the mining industry a third of all university-trained engineers are over 50, adds Mr. Montpellier.
"We just can't meet demand," says Dr. Cannon. "There is not enough money to expand university classes to that level — even if we could find the students. This year we will graduate 450 engineers in total with half of them going to the energy industry. We have plans to increase enrolment to about 600 but that still will not be enough."
Meeting future needs will depend on a mix of expanding university and technical college graduates, providing Canadian credentials for foreign-educated newcomers, and recruiting from overseas, she adds.
