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Most teenagers who smoke make repeated and naive attempts to quit, but have lost confidence in their ability to rid themselves of the addiction two years after taking that first puff, according to a new study.

Researchers in Montreal analyzed data from 319 teenagers who completed reports on their smoking habits every three months for five years.

The study, published online Wednesday in the American Journal of Public Health, found that teen smokers go through stages in their attempts to stop smoking, and highlights that perhaps policy makers should refocus their attention on cessation tactics instead of prevention strategies.

“They're developing all these symptoms and they're really interested in quitting, and they still think they can until they reach about 24 months or 2 years after the first puff and they say ‘Oh my God, I can't quit.' And then at 32 months they are extremely aware that ‘I can't do this. I can't quit,'” said Jennifer O'Loughlin, lead author of the study and a professor in the department of social and preventive medicine at the University of Montreal.

Indeed the study found that a month and a half into smoking, teenagers will naively try and stop smoking completely. They will make their first serious attempt two and a half months after taking the first puff. But by 21 months, they are no longer confident in their abilities to stop smoking, and are aware of the difficulty in quitting 32 months into the habit.

The study found that while 70 per cent of teens expressed a desire to quit, only 19 per cent were successful for 12 months or more by the end of the five-year study. Further, girls were more likely to attempt to kick the habit and be more successful doing so than boys.

“I think the message is for kids before they put that first cigarette in their mouth ... is that the first cigarette could be a time bomb,” Dr. O'Loughlin said in an interview. “You don't know if you're going to be the kid who is going to escalate and continue down this trajectory or you're one of the lucky ones who will not find it interesting.”

And for tobacco control policy makers? “There's a really short window between the first puff and not being able to stop smoking. I don't think we're talking about prevention any more. I think we're talking about cessation strategies.”

According to the 2006 Canadian Tobacco Use Monitoring Survey by Statistics Canada, about 15 per cent of teens were either daily smokers or smoked occasionally.

Rob Cunningham, senior policy analyst for the Canadian Cancer Society, who funded the study, said the research suggests more needs to done in terms of legislation, programming and taxation. “In particular, federal and provincial governments must get the contraband situation under control – cheap cigarettes discourage teen smokers from quitting,” he said.