1. Falling hotel rates
Yes, they're getting cheaper. As the recession encourages travellers to stay home, some North American hotels are marking rooms down - in New York, for instance, the luxury boutique Cooper Square Hotel opened this month with rates of just $275 (U.S.), well below the average New York rate in the fall. Other hotels are doing whatever they can to avoid price cuts, says hotel consultant Joel Rosen, chairman of Toronto-based Horwath HTL. Many are offering credits for food and beverage or hotel services, often worth $150 to $300 over three nights.
Outside Canada and the U.S., hotels are more desperate. A fall-off in U.S. travel has meant empty rooms for resorts in Mexico, the Dominican Republic and other sun destinations. To fill the gap, the properties are offering discounts to Canadian tour operators, says Moscou Côté, vice-chair of the Association of Canadian Travel Agencies. As a result, he says, this year's winter vacation packages are priced an average 20 per cent lower than last season's.
In Dublin, things are so bad that a number of luxury hotels, including the landmark Shelbourne, have been offering three nights for the price of two. And in London, Supranational Hotels managing director Niels Pedersen predicted recently that hotel prices won't rise above last year's levels until 2013.
2. Cheaper airfares
The average price of an air ticket could drop 3 per cent next year, as the number of passengers drops 5 per cent. Those were the predictions of Brian Pearce, chief economist with the International Air Transport Association. He spoke in Geneva this month after a meeting of the 30 world airline bosses who sit on the IATA's board of governors.
Even though oil prices have dropped, the world's airlines expect to lose $2.5-billion (U.S.) next year, with only North American airlines expected to make even a token profit. Watch for more-frequent seat sales in 2009 as airlines try to stimulate advance bookings. Air Canada's unprecedented December sell-off, which offered discounts through until next November, could be a harbinger of fire sales to come.
3. Discounted cruises
Cruise lines, once the fastest-growing players in the travel industry, are now offering discount deals to fill empty cabins. There are widespread sell-offs at the moment on Caribbean sailings. In Britain, MSC Cruises recently offered a second cabin for $1.75 to anyone booking a Mediterranean cruise. Cruise giant Carnival Corp. told investors that the booking outlook for 2009 remains uncertain.
Look for bargains on the water in the coming months, especially with 15 ships making their maiden voyages. Among them is the largest cruise ship ever, Royal Caribbean's 5,400-passenger Oasis of the Seas. Among its offerings will be a levitating bar that ascends and descends through three levels, the first-ever carousel at sea, and "Central Park," an open-air tropical garden the length of a football field.
4. Easier airport security
Airport screening procedures could become less of a hassle in the coming months. Machines to scan liquids and gels in carry-on luggage are now in the trial stage. That would be the end of having to carry 100-millilitre containers in clear plastic bags.
Also on the horizon is one-stop security, meaning that once passengers clear security at one airport, they won't be checked again at a connecting airport. Canadians flying through Europe could be among the first to benefit, if Canada pushes for such procedures under the new Canada-Europe Open Skies agreement, says Georgina Graham, IATA's director of security and facilitation.
Meanwhile, Kelowna International and 10 U.S. airports are testing full-body scanners that show security agents what is under passengers' clothing. Transport Canada will decide in 2009 whether to expand use of the machines to other Canadian airports. They will probably be commonplace at European airports by 2010.
5. The beginnings of greener air travel
This could be the year that flying makes some real progress toward sustainability. Both Japan Airlines and Continental Airlines will conduct demonstration flights in January using bio-fuels made from plant sources.
