Vaccinating Canadians against H1N1 is costing the country nearly twice as much as health officials expected and the tally could easily climb above $2-billion before the pandemic has subsided.
The national inoculation program is only a few weeks in, but $1.51-billion is already being spent, according to a review of estimates from federal, provincial and territorial governments. The actual figure is likely much higher because many provinces are still revising their costs while others have yet to release total estimates.
Even at $1.51-billion, the vaccination effort is proving far more expensive than health officials estimated. In September, provincial and territorial health ministers predicted the cost of buying the vaccine and delivering it at around $16 a dose, or $806-million in total based on the 50.4 million doses ordered. The total cost is currently running at about $30 a shot and climbing.
"I think we said right from the beginning that the on-the-ground part of this was probably always the biggest
"It's always what people underestimate and this is a huge operation. We've seen that play out, the difficulty in running this program."
Dr. Wilson said it won't be known whether the money being spent on this vaccination campaign is justified until after the virus passes. If rolling out the vaccine in October, instead of November as previously planned, helped protect a large segment of the population and did not hinder workplace productivity, then the cost is justified, he said.
"We're sort of in the grey zone, is it worth it or not? We'll have to see how this plays out to determine that. If there is a potential third wave and the vaccine program has helped mitigate that in Canada ... then it still may be worth it," Dr. Wilson said.
But other health experts questioned the cost, saying the public expense far outweighs the seriousness of the illness.
"You really have to ask serious questions about the cost-benefit," said Richard Schabas, Ontario's former chief medical officer of health who is now the medical officer of health for Ontario's Hastings and Prince Edward Counties Health Unit. "I think this is the most overhyped, overblown exercise I've ever been a part of. We continue to lavish resources on a problem that is just not that big."
Public health officials say costs have climbed because of an unexpected surge in demand for the vaccine and interruptions in supply. That forced many regional health authorities to open more clinics and alter distribution plans.
"We really, quite honestly, weren't expecting quite the lineups for vaccines," David Butler-Jones, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, said in a recent interview. He added that it's important to keep in mind that this is the largest immunization program in Canadian history.
"This is just so unprecedented in terms of what the provinces and territories have actually been able to accomplish, in getting [the number of people vaccinated], in the space of one week, normally what wouldn't be done for a month or two," he said.
The Globe on H1N1
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The costs of the H1N1 program start with the vaccine itself, which is made by GlaxoSmithKline. The federal government ordered 50.4 million doses for $403.2-million in total. The federal government is covering 60 per cent of that amount, with the provinces and territories picking up the remainder.
But the cost of getting that vaccine into millions of arms has jumped far higher, and faster, than health officials expected.
