In 2004, David Green was one of a horde of people jostling for the chance to buy part of a decommissioned industrial building in a seedy part of Toronto.
“People were fighting in the sales office,” says Mr. Green, who felt caught up in the fracas as red “sold” stickers began appearing on the floor plans.
The pace, he recalls, had rival buyers thinking, “they're all going to be gone in a second if I don't grab a salesperson and hand them a cheque.”
Five years later, Mr. Green is living in the transformed Garment Factory Lofts and the neighbourhood surrounding him is known as über-cool Leslieville.
His real estate investment has soared in value.
“I got lucky. Because when I bought, I was terrified,” he says.
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Like many homeowners who have seen the value of their property swell since 2004, Mr. Green is wondering how he can pocket that gain. And whether he can repeat that success with another property. And those quandaries lead him to the question all prospective sellers are facing right now: How long will the high-octane Toronto real estate market keep running?
For Mr. Green makes his living as a television actor, but his sideline is investing in stocks and real estate. That's where his Master of Business Administration degree comes in.
As he tries to figure out his next move, he is talking to real estate agents and visiting presentation centres in such developing neighbourhoods as Corktown, Leslieville and Queen St. West.
On a recent morning, he strolled the short distance from his loft on Carlaw to a Queen St. East coffee shop, where he met with Paul Johnston of Right at Home Realty.
Mr. Green has been keeping an eye on the Toronto real estate market and, all of a sudden, prices have risen “inexplicably”, he says.
Lofts in his building have sold for more than $400,000. If he could sell for an amount approaching that number, he could realize a nice gain on the $220,000 or so he paid in 2004 when the lofts were just a neglected factory and a plan on paper.
“You made that great move when you bought,” says Mr. Johnston. “Replicating that great move is very challenging.”
The two go through the numbers: Based on price per square foot, which is the way most lofts and condos are sold, Mr. Green could expect to sell for about $550 per square foot in the current market.
Mr. Green believes that buying into a project long before construction gets under way could be the way to prosper because units typically rise in value when they are ready for occupancy. If all goes well, he could end up with a larger unit for the same amount invested.
But while his neighbourhood has flourished, it's not easy to spot the next weed-choked wasteland that will begin to attract development.
The discussion prompts Mr. Johnston to reminisce about his past career as a disc jockey. He had to drive a rented smoke machine back to Queen and Carlaw after his gigs.
“Returning them at 10 o'clock on a Thursday night – it was pretty sketchy,” he recalls.
The area has come a long way since. “But where is the next Leslieville?”
