It has been two years since Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion project erupted as a key issue in the B.C. election. You might think that at least one of the major political parties in B.C. would have come up with a strong position on the proposal by now, but you would be wrong.
The B.C. NDP was blasted for a mid-campaign flip-flop in 2013 when party leader Adrian Dix announced his opposition to the project. It was calculated to bring back environmental support that was drifting to the B.C. Green Party. In the aftermath of their provincial election loss, New Democrats fell into dithering about Kinder Morgan because they had paid dearly in lost blue-collar support at the ballot box.
New NDP Leader John Horgan has reverted to the NDP's pre-election posture, saying he will wait until the environmental assessment is complete before taking a position on the pipeline. But he's also indicated that standing against the proposed pipeline expansion was popular in his riding. "I got more votes this time than I did last time – so that message resonated with my voters."
The NDP critic for the environment, Spencer Chandra Herbert, says the province should conduct a provincial environmental assessment. But based on what has come out of the National Energy Board review process to date, he expects to submit objections to the NEB on behalf of his party this summer. "Based on what they have filed, I can't see how you could support this project," he said in an interview. "There is no way I could say to my constituents that we could support this project when clearly Kinder Morgan can't answer safety questions."
That is inching closer to a clear stand. But look outside B.C., and the NDP position gets more complicated still.
The new NDP Premier of Alberta, Rachel Notley, has expressed interest in the Kinder Morgan proposal as a realistic means of getting Alberta oil to overseas markets.
Farther afield, federal NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair says the NEB review process has no credibility and the project cannot go ahead without a "credible, thorough" environmental review.
Without reference to polls this far out from the fall election, there is the prospect that Mr. Mulcair could be the next prime minister of Canada. Perhaps he and Mr. Horgan can agree to take the easy out and object to the current process, but none of that will win them any votes with blue-collar workers.
Ms. Notley, whose election team included key strategists from the failed 2013 BC NDP campaign, has been careful to leave the door wide open on Kinder Morgan. They weren't going to make the same mistake twice.
In that, Premier Christy Clark and Ms. Notley are on the same page.
The B.C. Liberals have walked a careful – actually, timid – line on Kinder Morgan since the election. At the NEB hearing, B.C. did not file any evidence that might yield a clue about which way they are leaning.
Ms. Clark has merrily exploited the split between the NDP and private-sector labour unions on this issue. The head of the building trade unions, Tom Sigurdson, criticized the NDP during the election for opposing the job creation that would come from the $5.4-billion Trans Mountain project. He has since worked with the Liberal Premier on a number of labour initiatives.
The B.C. Premier has also tapped into public concerns about the expansion of oil-tanker traffic that the project would bring. Ms. Clark has berated Kinder Morgan for withholding information about its emergency management program. And she has been sharply critical of the federal government's marine oil-spill response.
The B.C. Liberal government will have to take a stand when it submits final arguments at the NEB hearing (the deadline is Sept. 3). And there is one factor that could tip the scales.
The B.C. government is hoping to see one final investment decision related to its liquefied-natural-gas ambitions this summer. Two years ago, when Ms. Clark was confident of presiding over a trillion-dollar LNG industry, she had the luxury of saying "we don't need Alberta." She has, however, kept her options open and, if not a single LNG investment has solidified come September, those Kinder Morgan pipeline jobs won't be so easy to pass up.
Justine Hunter