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One year from now, British Columbians will head to the polls to choose their next provincial government. The previous election was decided on a promise of a debt-free B.C., and defined by the image of a weather vane twisting in the wind. The next 12 months will shape the ballot question for May 9, 2017.
Premier Christy Clark, who pulled off an unexpected victory for the Liberals in 2013, is the campaign veteran with a well-rehearsed script already. She will likely pull together the same campaign team that delivered her last electoral success and is already polishing her lines about the danger posed by the "forces of no" who currently occupy the opposition benches. Importantly, there is no sign that the centre-right coalition in B.C. is in danger of splitting.
For New Democratic Party Leader John Horgan, there is still a gruelling year ahead to introduce himself to voters and to put together an election team that is unlikely to be run by the people who crafted the failed 2013 NDP campaign – the one that inspired a devastating ad campaign that cast then-leader Adrian Dix as the fickle weather vane. Another task is to define what his party will offer voters this time out. And he still faces a potential split among progressive voters because the sole B.C. Green MLA, Andrew Weaver, has maintained an outsized presence in the legislature.
Ms. Clark had an 18-second answer when asked what she will be doing in this pre-election year: "Making sure we continue to grow the economy, and I think demonstrating to British Columbians why a balanced budget matters, why investment in infrastructure matters and, most importantly, the difference between trying to say 'yes' to growth and saying 'no' to everything." That is about 10 seconds too long for a good campaign sound bite, but she has plenty of time to hone her message.
The New Democrats are not the front-runners out of the gate, but they have some advantages. Ms. Clark has gathered baggage that she did not carry in 2013 – school closings, ever-climbing hydro rates and an unprecedented environmental disaster at the Mount Polley mine, to name a few. The NDP Leader also appears to have made progress on the rift between his party and private-sector labour leaders who have criticized the NDP for failing to put forward a jobs agenda.
Mr. Horgan, who is just marking his second anniversary as leader of the New Democrats, says he still has a lot of travelling to do to make sure British Columbians have an opportunity to figure out who he is.
He also needs to talk about jobs – and the key will be coming up with a comeback to the BC Liberal tag that he leads the party of "no development."
"I don't believe that, fooled once, the electorate is going to fall again for pixie dust, for the notion that somehow the Premier is the only one who has the right answers to industrial development in British Columbia," he said in an interview. His message is closer to a sound bite, but suggesting that voters were fools might not be a winning strategy. He added that he wants to talk about a diverse economy that is not just about resource jobs, and the need for a robust education system to tackle inequality – ideas that will probably have better selling points.
Much can change in the political landscape by next spring, but some issues will be clear before this year is through: Ms. Clark's obsession with liquefied natural gas will have paid off with a firm commitment on what would be the province's biggest private-sector investment, or it will have finally evaporated. As well, the debate over oil pipelines in B.C. will reach the point that neither party can equivocate any longer on the question of whether they support a substantial increase in oil tanker traffic in Vancouver's harbour and off the coast.
Both of those issues – LNG and pipelines – have the power to transform the race. But pollster Greg Lyle of the Innovative Research Group predicts the environment will be dangerous territory for both of the main parties in the coming election. Safer to talk about jobs and the economy, or health care and education.
The jobs mantra that worked so well in 2013 may not be so easy to replicate this time around, Mr. Lyle noted. The Premier promised voters she had a plan to retire the provincial debt on LNG riches, and if there are no shovels in the ground, that is one kind of problem. But even if it does proceed, Ms. Clark can't just recreate the last campaign and expect it to work a second time.
"It's pretty important for any government to have a next chapter," he said. "There has got to be a reason why they need a mandate to continue."
Justine Hunter