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B.C. NDP Leader Adrian Dix pauses while addressing supporters after conceding defeat in the provincial election. (DARRYL DYCK/THE CANADIAN PRESS)
B.C. NDP Leader Adrian Dix pauses while addressing supporters after conceding defeat in the provincial election. (DARRYL DYCK/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

NUMBER CRUNCHING

How Green voters might have made Dix premier Add to ...

Vancouver While final voting data won’t be available for at least two weeks, some observations can be gleaned from the preliminary results of B.C.’s 40th provincial election.

For example: If every Green Party voter had instead cast a ballot for the NDP, Adrian Dix would be premier. In a dozen ridings, the combined number of votes for the two parties was higher than the Liberals’ winning total. Take Coquitlam-Maillardville, for instance, where the addition of Green votes would have put the NDP eight percentage points ahead of the Liberals, and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, where it would have been six points ahead.

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The other ridings are: Boundary-Similkameen, Burnaby North, Comox Valley, Delta North, Fraser-Nicola, Maple Ridge-Mission, North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Surrey-Fleetwood and Vancouver-Fraserview.

However, if all Conservative votes had gone to the Liberals, that party would still retain the majority.

Ultimately, 50 seats went to the Liberals, 33 to the NDP, one to the Green Party’s Andrew Weaver and one to Independent Vicki Huntington.

Also of note is the riding of Saanich North and the Islands, now in a virtual three-way tie after 22 years in Liberal hands. After the initial count, NDP candidate Gary Holman has 33.2 per cent of the votes, Liberal candidate Stephen Roberts 33 per cent and Green Party candidate Adam Olsen 31.9 per cent.

Across the province, preliminary numbers consist of ballots cast during advance voting and from within electoral districts on voting day. They do not include absentee ballots or votes cast at district electoral offices. A final count will take place May 27, at which point the preliminary voter turnout of 52 per cent – marginally more than in the 2009 provincial election – will rise.

Also worth noting at that point will be the breakdown of voters by age group. If figures are similar to those of the previous general election, it could give weight to the theory that the NDP’s stunning loss was due, at least in part, to a failure to rally its base.

Polls gave the NDP a 2-to-1 lead over the Liberals among voters 18 to 34 and the Liberals a lead in the 55-and-up age group. In 2009, only 31 per cent of eligible voters between 18 and 34 voted, compared with 68 per cent of voters aged 55 to 74.

 

 

If Green Party voters had instead cast ballots for the NDP, Adrian Dix would be premier. Here are a few of the 12 Liberal-won ridings where, based on preliminary numbers, the Green-plus-NDP vote outnumbered the Liberal vote.

 

Boundary-Similkameen

7,853 Liberal votes

8,137 Green + NDP votes

(6,656 NDP, 1,481 Green)

 

Comox Valley

12,817 Liberal votes

14,316 Green + NDP votes

(11,024 NDP, 3,292 Green)

 

Coquitlam-Maillardville

9,044 Liberal votes

10,626 Green + NDP votes

(8,939 NDP, 1,687 Green)

 

Delta North

9,060 Liberal votes

9,936 Green + NDP votes

(8,758 NDP, 1,178 Green)

 

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows

9,860 Liberal votes

11,132 Green + NDP votes

(9,179 NDP, 1,953 Green)

 

Port Moody-Coquitlam

8,915 Liberal votes

9,899 Green + NDP votes

(8,372 NDP, 1,527 Green)

 

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