Campbell wins again by focusing on governing, not the polls

GARY MASON

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

gmason@globeandmail.com

What will be the hallmark of Gordon Campbell's third term as British Columbia Premier?

You'd think that for someone who has held power in a province for eight consecutive years, a discernible pattern of governing would have emerged by now.

But that hasn't been the case with Mr. Campbell, who last night became only the fourth Premier in B.C.'s history to win three consecutive terms in office.

Mr. Campbell's first four years in government after his ascent to power in 2001 were marked by a sometimes extreme, neo-conservative fiscal agenda that was all about taking on native groups, slashing budgets and challenging unions.

His second term could hardly have been more different. In it, Mr. Campbell underwent a remarkable political transformation. He became a champion for aboriginal rights and a leading advocate for the environment. His government brokered unprecedented peace agreements with public-sector unions it once chose to fight.

It is now all part of what has been a fascinating, often perplexing, but ultimately successful and rewarding life dedicated to the public service.

For someone not possessing the easy charm and likeability quotient you would associate with longevity in political life, Mr. Campbell has managed to do one thing extremely well: win elections. Dating back to his time as a city councillor in Vancouver in the 1980s, he has run in eight elections and lost only once. (In his only loss, he was elected as an MLA but was not successful in his bid to become premier).

Throughout it all he has chosen to ignore polls that illuminate the public's uneasiness with him. Instead, he's just focused on governing.

"British Columbians should be proud of a decision to take steps that some people told them they shouldn't take because they weren't easy to take," said a victorious Mr. Campbell, alluding to his controversial carbon-tax policy. "They send a message to others who may have looked at this [policy] with trepidation."

Mr. Campbell led his party to victory last night because the public was more confident with him in charge of the ship of state during turbulent economic times. We will talk about what this election means for Carole James and the NDP in a minute.

Three elections in a row and you begin talking legacies. Mr. Campbell is an extremely competitive person. Leaving a long, impressive list of accomplishments from a lengthy and distinguished time in government are important to him. Third terms are about finishing off projects not yet complete. About reaching goals you set years earlier.

And, of course, for Mr. Campbell it will be about seeing the Olympic cauldron lit in Vancouver, a moment signalling the start of the 2010 Winter Games. Mr. Campbell expended much political capital bringing the Olympics to B.C. Having to watch Carole James play the role as host premier for the Olympics would have been an indignity almost too great to bear.

Mr. Campbell and the Liberals will have other things to think about in the short term, like the economy. It is a mess. The first priority of B.C.'s newly elected governing party will be to assess just how extensive the financial damage is and then draw up a game plan to fix it.

The $39-billion budget unveiled by the Liberal government in February was based on the assumption the economy would shrink by slightly less than 1 per cent (0.9) in the current fiscal year. Central 1 Credit Union, a leading economic forecaster, is now predicting the economy could contract by 3 per cent or more.

It would seem a given now that the projected budget deficit of $495-million is wholly unrealistic. It could reach $1-billion.

And the economy is only the most immediate problem. There are also perennial issues such as health care, aboriginal relations and the digital-age dilemma of ensuring children get the kind of education necessary to allow them to succeed in a complicated universe. And then there are recent issues such as an escalating gang war that is leaving people dead in the streets of Greater Vancouver.

For the New Democratic Party, meantime, the questions are much different.

Carole James will almost assuredly face questions about her leadership. Many inside the party assume the pressure for her to leave will be too great to bear. She does not seem like the type willing to wage the kind of ugly, internecine battle that might be necessary to save her job.

If Ms. James does leave, it will likely lead to a complete review of party policy - and it should. The NDP's decision to abandon its principles and oppose the Liberal carbon tax in an attempt to exploit rural anger was a complete disaster. Instead of being the party of new ideas, the NDP came across as the party of old, tired ones.

But last night was Gordon Campbell's night. Despite being arguably one of the most divisive figures in B.C. political history, he is now unquestionably one of the most successful. And that is something no poll can dispute.

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