In year-end media interviews, B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell has sounded like a man who still loves his job. This despite being utterly low in the polls, accused almost daily of being a big fat fibber and chastised constantly for introducing an unpopular sales tax.
Whether he loves it enough to stick around to run in another election is another matter.
Gordon Campbell has done too much for the B.C. Liberals to be presented with any kind of ultimatum to leave. The party would probably back him no matter how unpopular he became or how convinced Liberal strategists were that his leadership would mean certain electoral defeat in 2013.
No one believes it will come to that. Many in the party would not be surprised if Mr. Campbell announced his decision to retire later this year. B.C. could have a new premier before 2011.
Not surprisingly, the speculation about Mr. Campbell's future has ignited much talk about a leadership race. For the past couple of months, it has been the hot-button topic among ranking members of the party. And it appears some Liberal politicians are not waiting for Mr. Campbell to declare his intentions before testing the leadership waters.
Representatives have been calling prominent party members – including former cabinet ministers – on behalf of Aboriginal Affairs Minister George Abbott. Although it's possible these overtures are being made without Mr. Abbott's knowledge, that seems unlikely. It is certainly brazen, given that Mr. Campbell has not yet declared his intentions. But it's also a sign that those interested in the job are starting to focus on locking up important support early.
The question of who might succeed Mr. Campbell has also been consuming Vancouver's amorphous “business community,” which always has an enormous stake in these matters. Prominent business leaders have been in touch with the one person many believe would give the Liberals the best chance of winning the next election.
Carole Taylor.
The former finance minister spent only one term in government under Mr. Campbell and that was enough. She didn't much care for Mr. Campbell's autocratic leadership style. It was a huge loss for the government, as Ms. Taylor was a superb communicator and the kind of fiscal conservative the corporate community loves.
Paradoxically, she was also seen as a left-leaning democrat on social justice issues. A perfect political blend in many people's minds.
After announcing her intention to leave provincial politics in 2008, her supporters tried to persuade her to run for mayor of Vancouver. When she said no, many assumed it was because her husband, Art Phillips, a former Vancouver mayor himself, was getting on in years and didn't want his wife taking on a job that would involve long hours and being away from home a lot.
That is why most had ruled her out of any future Liberal leadership sweepstakes.
They shouldn't.
Ms. Taylor is interested in the job, I'm told, with the full blessing of her husband. That does not mean, by any certainty, that she'll go for it should Mr. Campbell step down. But she has apparently dismissed idle chatter that the leadership would have to be handed to her on a platter before she'd agree to declare.
As I understand her current thinking, Ms. Taylor could be persuaded to run if she is convinced the fix isn't already in for someone else.
She would certainly have a few advantages over the handful of others who are almost certain to go for the job, including Housing Minister Rich Coleman, Health Minister Kevin Falcon, Finance Minister Colin Hansen and Mr. Abbott.
Each of those men is tied to the one policy that is killing the Liberals among the public at the moment: the harmonized sales tax. And any one of them would have to defend the tax during an election. Ms. Taylor would not. In fact, she could say she successfully fought against implementing it when she was finance minister.
Among the fantasy list of candidates, Ms. Taylor would also likely have the easiest job of raising cash. She is incredibly well connected among a group with some of the deepest pockets in the country.
Not being in government offers advantages too. While campaigning, you don't have to be as careful about what you say concerning current government policies.
Ms. Taylor also enjoyed a relationship with the media that was the envy of many of her colleagues, including Mr. Campbell. As politicians go, she comes across as genuine and likeable.
Until the Premier makes a decision on his future, however, all this remains in the realm of speculation. That doesn't mean some aren't thinking ahead.
