News

Health Canada's new plan for dealing with any influenza pandemic estimates That level of protection depends on Shire Biologics of Laval, Que., which has a contract with Health Canada to produce the vaccine. The British company that owns Shire is trying to sell the vaccine manufacturer, leading some to wonder whether a new owner could move the operation to another country and leave Canadians defenceless against a global flu outbreak.

“Of course, it has been a concern for us,” Arlene King, director of immunization and respiratory infections at Health Canada, said Thursday in a teleconference held to announce the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan.

“However, I think it is really premature to speculate on that divestiture. And I think it's important to realize that we will ensure that the capacity to protect Canadians is maintained.”

Shire has said that, whatever happens, it will honour the contract. Critics say a backup strategy should be in place.

The plan announced yesterday provides action guidelines for all levels of government in case of an influenza pandemic, which Dr. King said experts believe is overdue. The urgency has been underscored by an outbreak of bird flu that has killed at least 19 people in Vietnam and Thailand.

There is no evidence that strain has developed the capacity to spread from one human to another. That would permit it to infect large numbers of people worldwide.

But “we have to be prepared for the unlikely event that currently circulating strains of avian influenza might acquire the characteristics of a pandemic strain,” said Ron St. John, director-general of Health Canada's Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response.

A model developed at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta that does not take into account anti-viral drugs or vaccines predicts that as many as 10.6 million Canadians would become clinically ill in a pandemic flu like the one that hit in 1918, and as many as 58,000 would die.

The plan announced Thursday focuses on the provision of a vaccine and sets out guidelines for prevention, preparedness and response. If a pandemic broke out, vaccine production would begin immediately, Dr. King said.

The plan says: “It is estimated that the next pandemic virus will be present in Canada three months after it emerges in another part of the world, but could be much sooner due to the volume and speed of air travel. Upon arrival, the virus may spread across Canada with great speed.”

Dr. King said that even with the best science available, isolating the new strain of virus would take two to three months. And “once the vaccine strain is available to our manufacturer, it will take another 48 days to produce the first doseof vaccine.”

Canada currently can produce six million doses per month, Dr. King said, “and that's why it would take six to 12 months to protect all Canadians, depending on whether we would need one dose of vaccine or two.”

It has also been suggested that Canada has not done enough to stockpile anti-viral drugs that could help prevent sickness and reduce symptoms of the flu. Dr. King said the government is buying an anti-viral drug, oseltamivir, to be used in an emergency.

But, she warned, “we don't know if anti-virals would be effective in treating serious illness or in preventing complications and death, particularly during a pandemic. And they will not stop a pandemic.”