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The Harper Conservatives will enter a federal election campaign with a polling lead that puts them within striking distance of winning a majority government, according to a new survey taken on the eve of an expected vote.

The new poll for The Globe and Mail-CTV News finds Canadian voters satisfied with the direction of the country and significantly more confident in the leadership abilities of the Tories and Prime Minister Stephen Harper than they are in those of his main rival, Stéphane Dion and the Liberals.

According to the poll, conducted by the Strategic Counsel, 37 per cent of Canadians would opt to vote for the Tories were an election to be held today, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP and 9 per cent for the Green Party.

In the 2006 election, the Tories polled 36 per cent, compared with the Liberals' 30, the NDP's 18 and the Greens' 5.

“With these numbers, a majority is within the reach of the Conservatives, but not yet in their grasp,” said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel. “I think that's the really important difference.”

The Tory gains are significant when compared with June, when scandals such as the Bernier affair left the two major parties statistically even in terms of voter support.

The Conservatives have built their lead on increased backing in British Columbia and parts of Ontario.

In areas of Ontario outside Toronto, they have turned the tables on the Liberals from the last election and now lead in popular support, 41 to 35.

The survey also finds that 45 per cent of Canadians believe it's time for a new government, down from 63 per cent in January, 2006, when voters threw the Paul Martin Liberals out of office.

“The number of people who believe the country is on the wrong track has declined,” Mr. Donolo said.

Canadians told pollsters the biggest issue facing the country is the economy, with 18 per cent saying it is the most pressing current concern. That's followed by health care at 15 per cent and then the environment at 14 per cent.

The survey shows that, of the major parties, the Conservatives are picked by 38 per cent of voters as the best able to manage the economy should there be a slowdown. The Liberals are picked by 27 per cent, the NDP by 8 per cent and the Greens by 3 per cent.

Mr. Harper's campaigners have already signalled they will run the campaign on their economic credentials, lashing out at the Liberal plan for a carbon tax, saying the plan would harm the economy.

In head-to-head comparisons, Mr. Harper is found by Canadians to lead Mr. Dion in a number of areas, including who is better to deal with the United States and the economy, and who offers the most positive vision of the country. Mr. Harper is also seen by 53 per cent of Canadians as the most decisive leader, compared with 17 per cent for Mr. Dion.

“The Conservatives would like this election to be about Harper versus Dion and leadership,” Mr. Donolo said.

Mr. Dion, on the other hand, must try to draw the votes of other left-of-centre voters, most of whom would opt for the Liberals as a second choice.

The Liberal Leader, said Mr. Donolo, will have to try to coax those voters away by arguing that the Liberals are the only way to prevent a Tory majority government.

If there is a silver lining for Mr. Dion, it is in Quebec, where both his and his party's appeal have ticked upward.

Of those Quebeckers surveyed, 26 per cent would opt for the Liberals, up five points from the last vote. The Tories, for their part, are down two points to 23 per cent, while the NDP has jumped four points to 12. The Bloc Québécois has lost eight points to 34.

Pollster Greg Lyle said Mr. Dion can maximize his chances by focusing on a Liberal advantage on the issue of compassion.

“That may already be paying off in the province of Quebec,” said Mr. Lyle, of Innovative Research Group Inc.

Mr. Lyle said the more robust Ontario numbers for the Tories probably stem from a fairly quiet summer that was free of controversy.

“There were lots of stories, but no coffee-talk stories,” he said.

On the matter of the Bloc Québécois drop, Mr. Lyle said Gilles Duceppe's flirtation with the Parti Québécois may have harmed the party and there have been few issues involving national unity that the BQ can capitalize on.

Mr. Lyle added, however, that the BQ may be able to make up lost ground by arguing that it is the only party that stands strictly for Quebec's interests.

The survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted Aug. 25 to 31 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.