ANDRÉ PICARD
MONTREAL — Globe and Mail Update Published on Tuesday, Mar. 27, 2007 1:15PM EDT Last updated on Tuesday, Mar. 31, 2009 10:25PM EDT
In an outburst of populist anger, Quebeckers overturned the province's long-standing political order Monday and elected their first minority government in more than 125 years.
The Liberal Party of Jean Charest won the most seats, but it was Mario Dumont and his upstart Action Démocratique du Québec that emerged as the big winners of the evening, making gains everywhere except on the Island of Montreal.
"This is a cri du coeur that resonates everywhere," Mr. Dumont said. "This vote reflects a profound desire for change."
The Parti Québécois and its leader, André Boisclair, were the principal losers, with the sovereigntist party recording less than 30 per cent of the popular vote for the first time since 1970.
When the dust settled, the Liberals had 48 seats, the ADQ 41, and the PQ 36 in the 125-seat National Assembly. The last time Quebec had a minority government was in 1878.
[All three party leaders will hold press conferences at the National Assembly this afternoon, with Mr. Boisclair leading off at 2 p.m. EDT, followed by Mr. Dumont at 2:30 p.m. EDT and Mr. Charest at 3:30 p.m. EDT]
While it is not entirely clear how the three parties will align themselves, the Liberals almost certainly will continue to govern, even though Mr. Charest may be turfed as leader. Four of his cabinet ministers were defeated. Mr. Boisclair won his seat, but could also lose his job.
Premier Charest announced after midnight that he will accept the challenge he has been handed.
"Quebeckers decided to write a page of history and to challenge the political class in this province. I accept the challenge," Mr. Charest said to a cheering crowd of supporters in his hometown riding of Sherbrooke.
"The people of Quebec have now spoken and we now have a Liberal minority government. My government will serve each citizen in a spirit of openness and inclusion," the Premier said.
Ideologically, the ADQ is to the right of the Liberals; it has little in common with the PQ, aside from its nationalism.
But, when the PQ floated the idea of forming an alliance with the ADQ and holding a referendum on sovereignty, the "autonomist" ADQ flatly rejected the notion.
What is without doubt is that Mr. Dumont, at age 36, orchestrated one of the biggest political upheavals in the province's history, tapping into an undercurrent of voter dissatisfaction to redraw the political map.
With his appeal to middle-class families, seniors and those in the regions, Mr. Dumont is also well-positioned to be premier of Quebec next time around, if he is able to deliver on promises in his new position as Opposition Leader.
He said he will keep the Liberal minority government "under high surveillance."
Mr. Boisclair tried to put a positive spin on the loss, saying: "Only a few seats separate us from power." But he said voters sent a clear message that "they want to be listened to ... and governed differently."
Mr. Dumont's personal history — as a former Liberal youth president who went on to campaign for the Yes side in the 1995 sovereignty referendum — will make for an interesting dynamic in a minority government. So too will the fact that virtually all his candidates are unknowns.
The ADQ saw its popular vote soar to 31 per cent from 18 per cent during the 2003 election. The Liberals plummeted to 33 per cent from 46 per cent. The PQ dropped the least, to 28 per cent from 33 per cent, the second-lowest result in the history of the sovereigntist party. The left-wing Québec Solidaire and the Green Party each garnered four per cent of the vote.
Last night's mind-boggling outcome — pollsters and pundits predicted a minority government but not such a strong showing by the ADQ — was a fitting culmination to what was one of the most unusual provincial election campaigns.
First and foremost, there was a genuine three-way battle for power, rather than Quebec's traditional two-horse race.
At dissolution, the National Assembly included 72 Liberals, 45 PQ members, five ADQ members, one independent and two vacancies.
Polls in recent days placed the three parties in a statistical dead heat. A poll conducted last week for The Globe and Mail and CTV by The Strategic Counsel gave the PQ 31 per cent, the Liberals 30 per cent and the ADQ 28 per cent.
But ADQ support proved broader than anyone predicted, and their lack of political machine did not prove to be an impediment.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's federal Conservative minority government also has an important stake in the outcome. A victory for federalism, combined with a surge in conservatism in Quebec, could be the launching point for a federal election.
With the ADQ gnawing away at both the traditional parties, the federalist-sovereigntist dichotomy that dominated Quebec's political landscape for three decades dissipated.
While Mr. Dumont's "autonomist" position remains vague, his fence-straddling allowed him to move beyond the age-old debate about Quebec's place within Canada and focus on other issues.
He wooed voters, particularly outside of urban Montreal, with his small-c conservatism and focus on families.
But it was Mr. Dumont's campaign against "reasonable accommodation" that garnered the most attention, and dominated the headlines throughout the five-week campaign.
The question of whether sugar shacks should bake beans without pork to satisfy Muslim and Jewish customers generated more public debate than provincial debt, the health-care system and cultural affairs combined.
The tabloid-driven debate did not favour Mr. Charest, who promised voters continuity and stability. As the electorate has given every provincial government a second mandate in the past 40 years, this should have been a good bet.
But going into the vote with a low popularity rating and running a dull, rather uninspired campaign, Mr. Charest and his party stumbled.
The Premier found himself on the defensive most of the time and even the federal budget, which dumped $2.3-billion into Quebec's coffers, did not provide much of a boost. Mr. Charest promised to use $700-million of it for tax cuts — a move viewed as desperate and cynical.
Mr. Boisclair started the campaign the most downtrodden of the three leaders because he was under attack from within his own party, and was seen as haughty and technocratic by the general public.
After a slow start, his campaign picked up steam and, in the end, he surpassed all expectations.
Two other minority parties garnered small, but significant numbers of votes: Québec Solidaire, led by Françoise David and Amir Khadir, and the Green Party of Quebec, led by Scott McKay.
Almost 5.6 million Quebeckers were eligible to vote yesterday.
Mr. Charest watched the election unfold at the home of his father, Claude "Red" Charest, in Sherbrooke. Mr. Boisclair opted to spend the evening in the trendy Le Germain hotel in downtown Montreal, rather than in his working class Pointe-aux-Trembles riding. Mr. Dumont was in the more utilitarian Hotel Universel in Rivière-du-Loup, in his riding along the St. Lawrence River.
While voting is done, the vote-counting is not necessarily finished. Under provincial election laws, candidates who lose by 1,000 votes or less can request a judicial recount. Pollsters predicted that as many as 35 ridings could be decided by hundreds of votes.
The post-electoral period will also be tumultuous for the leaders.
In the coming weeks, retired judge Bernard Grenier will wrap up his much-anticipated investigation of Option Canada, a group created to promote federalism, and allegations it illegally spent $5-million from a secret slush fund to fight the separatists. Before the report can be completed, Mr. Charest, who played a key role in the 1995 referendum, must testify.
In the near future, another important inquiry will get under way, one that has as its mandate to figure out how Quebec can accommodate its religious and cultural minorities while retaining its fundamental values. The non-partisan commission is headed by sociologist Gérard Bouchard and philosopher Charles Taylor.
With reports from Rhéal Seguin, Ingrid Pertiz, Tu Thanh Ha and Alex Dobrota
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