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Within 24 hours of announcing he was running for the leadership of the Parti Québécois, Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe stunned the sovereignty movement by dropping out of the race.

Mr. Duceppe's organizers quickly realized that their strategy to take over the PQ had failed miserably and that an unpredictably strong level of support had quickly moved behind former PQ senior minister Pauline Marois, the only other declared candidate in the race.

The battle of titans everyone expected will not take place. A series of events that unfolded late Friday and all day Saturday convinced Mr. Duceppe that he would do better to remain Bloc Leader in Ottawa than pursue his strategy to become PQ leader.

A poll conducted by Crop for the Montreal daily La Presse on Saturday showed a vast majority of Quebeckers — 45 per cent — preferred Ms. Marois as PQ leader over Mr. Duceppe, who received the backing of 21 per cent. Mr. Duceppe reached the conclusion he didn't have the support.

"The Crop poll clearly showed an important and insurmountable trend in support of Ms. Marois. This was not visible two weeks ago," Mr. Duceppe's chief of staff François Leblanc said Saturday.

Ever since the PQ's disappointing third-place showing in the March 26 election, Mr. Duceppe had been preparing his move to lead the party. Former PQ leader André Boisclair felt he was being pushed out and couldn't hold back his frustration when he attacked Mr. Duceppe publicly. The confrontation led to Mr. Boisclair's downfall and resignation last Tuesday, opening the door to the PQ leadership race.

On Friday, Mr. Duceppe surprised everyone by throwing his hat into the ring so quickly, gambling that he could rapidly build momentum and discourage Ms. Marois from running. He had even planned a meeting with her on Saturday to discourage her candidacy.

Ms. Marois didn't take the strong-arm tactic by Mr. Duceppe's strategists lightly and announced her candidacy only minutes after the Bloc Leader went public with his announcement. She was bitter and angry that once again opponents were mounting an attack on her bid to become the first woman to lead the PQ. She has tried and failed twice before to win the leadership. On another occasion Ms. Marois was squeezed out of the race by Bernard Landry, who went on to replace former leader Lucien Bouchard.

Mr. Duceppe still believed he could defeat Ms. Marois if a third candidate could step in and attract support away from Ms. Marois. The Duceppe camp was hoping that the third candidate would be the newly elected MNA, Pierre Curzi, an award-winning actor who made the jump to politics last winter.

"We learned that Pierre Curzi was not going to be a candidate. Without his candidacy, whatever support Mr. Curzi would have received would likely go over to Ms. Marois. We realized the hill was getting steeper to climb," Mr. Leblanc said.

After making calls throughout the day, Mr. Duceppe organizers realized that no more than two PQ caucus members — Maxime Arsenault and Sylvain Simard — were willing to publicly support him. The Bloc leader had been counting on the support of seven to 10 caucus members.

"Mr. Duceppe understood that in a two-way race with Ms. Marois, the party would come out deeply divided. Barring a miracle, the outcome of the race was now predictable. We saw the trend building yesterday (Friday) but it became more and more obvious as the day unfolded," Mr. Leblanc said.

"Everyone was telling us that with Gilles in Ottawa and Pauline in Quebec, this would be the best tandem. We finally acknowledged that they were right."

The danger which now haunts Mr. Duceppe is that his leadership of the Bloc may be left scarred and weakened by his sudden reversal. In a press release Saturday, Mr. Duceppe said he will seek a vote of confidence by the Bloc caucus members on Monday and will also put it to a vote at a Bloc Québécois meeting in October.

"It is my duty to avoid a confrontation in the sovereignty movement that could divide and therefore weaken us. The message of 'Pauline in Quebec and Gilles in Ottawa' also weighed in," Mr. Duceppe stated in throwing his support behind Ms. Marois.

Mr. Duceppe declined an invitation to make a public appearance on Sunday with Ms. Marois who will officially launch her candidacy. He has accepted an invitation to attend a fundraising event in Montreal with her on Monday.

The PQ is now left with only one prominent candidate and the strong possibility that Ms. Marois could be crowned leader. All other potential candidates, such as Pierre Curzi, Bernard Drainville and Joseph Facal have indicated they will not run.

The party will meet May 26 to decide the cut-off date for candidacies and the rules for the election of the new leader. Party president Monique Richard has said the rules will be much tougher than the last time when in 2005 anyone signing-up a total of 1,000 supporters spread across a minimum of 40 ridings could enter the race.

The PQ remains a party that is heavily indebted and still hurting from the last election. Many riding associations will want to avoid a long and costly leadership race and may make it so difficult for marginal candidates to enter the race that Ms. Marois' crowning will appear as a foregone conclusion.