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Canadians would be more likely to support extending the military mission in Afghanistan if they were convinced it would protect the rights of women and children, according to a new poll.

The results of the wide-ranging poll also suggest that Canadians are ill at ease with the fact that their country's traditional role as an international peacekeeper is being transformed. Almost two-thirds say Canada's military role should be to act under the United Nations in a pacification role rather than as a combatant.

With the Afghan mission set to end in February, 2009, the Prime Minister must decide relatively quickly whether Canada should extend its troop commitment in the southern province of Kandahar. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has said his government would only do so if a parliamentary consensus develops.

The poll, conducted by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV News, suggests that the best way for Mr. Harper to obtain that consensus would be to argue that Canada has a duty to safeguard the humanitarian gains of Afghan women and children.

When asked to list the most important factors in considering an extension, 81 per cent of those surveyed listed the rights of women and children. Sixty-eight per cent mentioned the likelihood of a terrorist attack on the West, including Canada, as being an important factor.

The poll of 1,000 Canadians was conducted July 12 to 15 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Peter Donolo, a partner with the Strategic Counsel, said the Prime Minister can probably best sell the mission on humanitarian grounds, but Canadians are also sympathetic to the notion that Canada could be attacked if Afghanistan isn't stabilized.

“There's resonance with our own vulnerability – the kind of arguments that were used with the original deployment,” he said. “But what's interesting is that what doesn't [have resonance] is the reputational stuff – that it will hurt our international legitimacy or reputation.”

That means that Mr. Harper's argument of a year ago – that Canadians don't “cut and run” – probably won't sell. The poll finds that 59 per cent of Canadians oppose sending troops to Afghanistan, up four percentage points from May.

Mr. Donolo also said that a lack of progress in Afghanistan may be behind another finding that shows 65 per cent of Canadians believe their role on the world stage is more suited to peacekeeping than as enforcers of peace. That sentiment was most popular in Ontario, where 69 per cent supported the idea. He said Canadians may be pining for the days before 9/11 and are “nostalgic for the blue helmets” of the UN missions of the past. But Canadian casualties and a perceived lack of success may also be persuading Canadians that they should refrain from the combat role.

Asked in Chile how he might persuade a skeptical public to back the mission, Mr. Harper insisted that he does not see any significant “moral opposition” to the deployment of Canadian troops.

“What I see is a growing concern of Canadians on the burden that we are carrying and the level of Canadian casualties,” he said. “I understand the pain. I understand the difficulty this causes the Canadian population.”

But he added that he hopes the mission can be extended.

“We went to Afghanistan because a failed state there caused a significant security problem [that] resulted in 9/11 and the deaths of a couple of dozen Canadians” and thousands of Americans, Mr. Harper said.

The poll also finds that Canadians are not particularly enthusiastic about the notion that it may take a decade to make significant headway in Afghanistan. When asked whether they support remaining in Afghanistan for 10 years or more, 70 per cent opposed the idea, while only 28 per cent backed it.

“One of the problems with the Afghanistan issue is a sense among Canadians that it's a morass,” Mr. Donolo said.

Perhaps most distressing for the Tories, Quebeckers continue to oppose the war in greater numbers than in the rest of the country.

“They are inclined to believe the worst on this,” Mr. Donolo said.

Winning seats in Quebec is seen as a linchpin to Mr. Harper's goal of achieving a majority government.