Alberta is a province unlike the others -- at least when it comes to provincial politics, with its long periods of one-party government. There have been only four party administrations over the province's century of history: the Liberals from 1905 to 1921, the United Farmers of Alberta from 1921 to 1935, the Social Credit Party from 1935 to 1971, and the Progressive Conservatives from 1971 to the present. The lifespan of the longest-lasting Alberta administration was 36 years; the average lifespan is 25 years.
This suggests that the current provincial Progressive Conservative administration is nearing the end of its rope - unless it can renew itself. Who or what might form Alberta's next government?
It's not a simple question, because of another feature of Alberta politics: No provincial government has ever been replaced by its traditional opposition. When Albertans change governments, the party in power has always (thus far) been replaced by a new group with a big, new idea.
Peculiar, isn't it? And unique in Canada. But this is the story. The provincial Liberals formed the government from 1905 to 1921, with the Conservatives in opposition. But the Liberals were swept out by the United Farmers of Alberta, with new ideas on agricultural, transportation, and democratic reform.
From 1921 to 1935, the Liberals, lusting to return to office, formed the opposition to the UFA. But then the Great Depression impelled another change: Albertans threw out every single UFA member, including the premier, and replaced them with the upstart Social Credit movement, led by William Aberhart, with new ideas on monetary reform. Albertans don't fear political novelty - they seek it.
Perhaps, you may say, the elections of 1921 and 1935 were anomalies. From 1905 to 1921, the Alberta political landscape was in a formative stage, and during severe economic depressions, political systems are unstable. The province eventually settled down to the good old two-party system with which most of the rest of Canada is blessed (or cursed): governments replaced periodically and predictably by their traditional oppositions.
In Alberta, when Social Credit finally ran out of steam, who should replace it (though, this time, it took two elections to do so)? Not the Liberals, but the Peter Lougheed Conservatives, with a higher energy level than the old administration and new ideas on economic development and diversification.
If this pattern persists in the 21st century, the next government of Alberta could very well be formed not by traditional opposition parties such as the Liberals and the NDP, but by something new. What might be the central issue that will engender and motivate Alberta's next government?
There are several candidates. The provincial Liberals and NDP, perpetual losers in the province's politics, will most likely pin their hopes on promises to spend more money in such areas as health care and education. But these hackneyed proposals don't cut much ice in a province where per capita provincial spending in almost all categories is already among the highest in the country.
Others might propose "firewall building" as the big idea that will elect the next provincial government: pulling Alberta out of the Canada Health Plan, the Canada Pension Plan, and the RCMP policing agreement, and replacing them with Alberta-made and Alberta-run programs.
Perhaps. But many Albertans think these proposals are merely a reaction to the frustrations of the 1990s, and could be persuaded that bridge-building, not firewall-building, is a wiser strategy.
Then there's the dark horse -- dark green, actually -- which I'd bet on if I were a betting man.
Recently, when pollsters ask Albertans to name their No. 1, top-of-mind concern, guess what finishes a very close second to health care? Environmental conservation.
