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Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals are showing momentum for the first time since their election as they prepare to deliver a budget this week that could provoke the fall of their fragile minority government, setting the stage for an election campaign.

An Ipsos-Reid poll shows that 47 per cent of Canadians think the Prime Minister and his Liberals deserve to be re-elected. This represents a jump of 18 points since the question was asked during last spring's federal election campaign, which saw the Liberals reduced to minority status.

Mr. Martin and Finance Minister Ralph Goodale will deliver the budget, the first of this minority government, on Wednesday.

The poll results may stop opposition parties from attempting to challenge the government on the budget. There are 133 Liberal MPs — 21 votes short of a majority in the House of Commons.

Last week, the Liberals lost a vote on a foreign affairs/international trade bill. It was not a confidence motion so the government did not fall, but it underlined the vulnerability of this government's minority status.

"The marbles are right now in the corner of the government," Ipsos-Reid senior vice-president John Wright said. "You don't want to pull the trigger on an election. You don't want to play games in the House that get this government defeated.

"The numbers are pointing toward Paul Martin being elected with a majority government if he runs a good campaign because we now have almost half the population saying he deserves to be re-elected."

However, the poll also shows that Mr. Martin and Mr. Goodale must walk a fine line with this budget, as Canadians are asking that the $11-billion surplus be spent not only on social programs, but also on tax cuts for middle-income earners.

Sixty-six per cent of the respondents want the surplus to go to health care, 46 per cent said postsecondary education should benefit, and 45 per cent want tax cuts for middle-income Canadians. Thirty-nine per cent said the money should go to reduce the debt, and the same number would use it for a national child-care program. Thirty-four per cent want increases to environmental spending, such as the cost of implementing the Kyoto accord, and 27 per cent said funding to the military should be increased.

The poll of 2,002 Canadians was conducted between Feb. 15 and Feb. 17. It is considered accurate within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Mr. Wright said that the number of people who think the Liberals under Mr. Martin deserve to be re-elected is an important result, because it is a precursor to a vote.

"It's like looking at an instrument panel. Right now, the Liberals are looking at some pretty favourable numbers and they may not have the vote there at the moment, but all the other indicators are that they have the likelihood of growth. ....."

The poll shows that Mr. Martin is still stuck in minority territory. Only 37 per cent of Canadians — the same number who supported his candidates on election day — say they would support the Liberals if an election were held tomorrow. This is a drop from the 40-per-cent mark the Liberals enjoyed in October.The recent signing of the offshore oil agreements with Newfoundland and Nova Scotia have helped Liberal fortunes in Atlantic Canada. The poll gives them 48 per cent of the decided vote in Atlantic provinces, compared with 33 per cent for the Conservatives. In Ontario, the Liberals are at 43 per cent, 15 points ahead of the Conservatives.

In Quebec, the Liberals are not doing as well. The Bloc Québécois has 39-per-cent support compared with 34 per cent for Mr. Martin and the Liberals.

The poll also notes that Mr. Martin is a bit of "drag" as leader, with 39 per cent of the respondents saying their opinion of him has worsened since the election. Twenty-nine per cent say it has improved.

Mr. Wright said the Liberals are partly benefiting from the weakness of the Conservatives and Leader Stephen Harper. "Canadians also look at the alternative that they have and the Conservative Party is just not going to cut it," Mr. Wright said. "The Conservative Party has some real problems in this country breaking through."

The poll shows, too, that a majority of Canadians, 56 per cent, approve of Mr. Martin's leadership. This compares to 38 per cent of Canadians who say Mr. Harper has shown that he's "truly ready to be Canada's next prime minister."The opposition parties are worried Mr. Martin's government will call an election when the polls indicate they can win a majority.

"I don't think [the polling numbers] should embolden him to the point of being brazen. I think what this does is allow them to have some confidence going into [the budget debate]," Mr. Wright said.