Political showdown looms as budget vote nears

TERRY WEBER

Globe and Mail Update

With the fate of Prime Minister Paul Martin's minority Liberal government hanging in the balance, Parliamentarians faced their most important day since last June's election Thursday even as drama — suddenly the hallmark of the federal scene — continued to swirl.

Within hours, MPs of all stripes will face off in the House of Commons to decide whether Canadians will be sent to the polls just a year after their last trip to the ballot boxes to pick a government.

Around 5:45 p.m. EDT, MPs will vote on a pair of budget bills, with the Liberals fighting to hold on and the Opposition determined to bring down what they say is a government lacking what they call "moral authority" to govern.

But, even with the only hours remaining, the political waters — which have seen everything from health scares and political defections to broken hearts make headlines — continued to churn.

Early Thursday, a call by Independent MP Carolyn Parrish — whose support is crucial to the survival of the minority Liberal government — to CTV's Canada AM raised questions about her ability to make it to the House of Commons because of a sudden illness.

A spokesman later insisted that she intended to vote in the House, even if she had to get their on her hands and knees.

"You can quote me on this, she's going to make the vote if she has to crawl," spokesman Brian MacDonald told globeandmail.com, adding that she is in "a hell of a lot of pain" as result of either a ovarian cyst or kidney stones.

Ms. Parrish herself later said: "Come hell or high water, there's no frigging way I'm going to let one ovary bring the government down."

Thursday's Parrish scare is just the latest in a whiplash string of events that have besieged the nation's Capital.

At issue is the survival of Prime Minister Paul Martin's minority Liberals in a budget vote that echoes the vote faced by Joe Clark's government in 1979.

Mr. Clark's government lost the vote after the Liberal Whip, determined to beat the Tories, brought in a New Brunswick MP — fresh from back surgery — by ambulance for the ballot.

In a further echo back to that era, sources said Mr. Martin's Liberals sent a doctor to Ms. Parrish's Ottawa home Thursday to make sure she was fine. A spokesman for the Prime Minister's Office refused to comment on the MP's medical condition and the likelihood she would make it to the House.

"It will be clear this evening if she votes or not and there's plenty of time until then, speculating in the meantime gives absolutely no purpose whatsoever," PMO spokesman Marc Roy said.

If Mr. Martin's Liberals — who have the backing of the NDP on Thursday's vote — lose, the Prime Minister has vowed to dissolve Parliament and call an election. That would come nearly a year to the day that Canadians last learned that they would be sent to the polls.

Exiting Thursday's cabinet meeting, Mr. Martin admitted that government ministers talked "more than a bit" about the vote, but also indicated that their discussions went beyond that to also cover further government business on issues like trade disputes.

If the Liberals win the vote, he added, he expects Parliament to continue with business as usual.

"We have heard the conservatives say that if the government wins the vote tonight, things should return to normal, and I think that that is really what Canadians want," he said.

The Conservatives — along with the Bloc Québécois — are looking to topple the government and have said they will support the main budget bill but defeat the government by voting against the so-called NDP amendment. The Opposition has cited its concern over damaging testimony out of the Gomery inquiry into the federal sponsorship scandal as necessitating an election.

By Thursday it was strictly a numbers game, with all sides were pulling out all the stops to make sure their members will be present and accounted for when the bells signal the Parliamentary vote.

"It is our intention to have everybody in the house," a spokeswoman for the Conservatives said Thursday.

The Liberals and NDP combined have 151 seats versus the 152 for the Conservatives and Bloc.

With Ms. Parrish's vote, the two sides would be tied, leaving the fate of the government in the hands of two other independents Chuck Cadman and David Kilgour.

Reports have suggested that Mr. Cadman, based on his constituents' opposition to a snap election, was leaning toward siding with the Liberals. Mr. Kilgour, on the other hand, has said he won't make up his mind until just before entering the House of Commons but has expressed disappointment in the government's actions in recent days.

Liberal Whip Karen Redman also said that party expected to turn out in full force.

She said ailing Energy Minister John Efford, whose attendance had been in question, is in Ottawa and will be in the House for the vote. However, she said, the Liberals would honour the agreement to "pair" off to cover the absence of Conservative Darrel Stinson, who is undergoing medical treatment.

"I think it will be [Ontario Liberal MP] Peter Adams, who is not seeking re-election," she said in an interview.

"Peter has agreed to sit out if we need him to."

As for the likelihood of any further surprises before MPs make it inside the House for the vote, Ms. Redman would only say: "Oh gosh, because we're not aware of them that's what makes them surprises, so who knows."

Canadians were thunderstruck earlier this week when star Conservative MP Belinda Stronach — a one-time candidate for the leadership for that party — held a press conference alongside Mr. Martin to announce that she was crossing the floor and would serve as Liberal Human Resources Minister.

The move sparked outrage among her former Conservative colleagues and some of the responses from across the country drew charges of sexism because of their personal nature. Ms. Stronach's decision also triggered sudden, intense interest in her personal life because of her relationship with Deputy Conservative Leader Peter MacKay.

Mr. MacKay retreated to his family's farm in Nova Scotia, admitting to reporters that the week's events had left his heart a little "banged up." He later returned to Ottawa to sit with his party for Thursday's vote.

Within a day of Ms. Stronach's move, the Liberal party faced its own short-lived crisis when MP Jim Karygiannis was rushed to hospital from the House of Commons complaining of chest pains.

He later received a bill of clean health and is expected to be in the House for Thursday's vote.

Exiting Thursday's Cabinet meeting, Liberal ministers remained confident, even if Oppostion parties forced a vote.

"What we have to offer as a government is certainly a lot better than what (Conservative Leader Stephen) Harper has to offer," Mr. Pettigrew said.

He also took a swipe at Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe, saying he has "his own personal agenda" for wanting an election.

Meanwhile, Mr. MacKay said he was ready upon his return to Parliament to take on the government.

"I'm voting against the government, I know that's a surprise," Mr. MacKay said, smiling.

"I think that the prospects remain very real for an election."

Tensions later spilled over into the House of Commons, where the Liberals faced more questions about the sponsorship scandal and a trust fund trust fund designed to eventually repay sponsorship dollars that went into party coffers.

"What all this really means is not one red cent will be set aside in all likelihood until after another Liberal election campaign has been run with dirty money," Mr. MacKay said charged during the session.

With a file from Canadian Press

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