Independent MP David Kilgour will vote in favour of the federal budget but against an NDP amendment, a move that backs opposition efforts to topple the government and leaves the fate of Parliament effectively in the hands of a single member.
Mr. Kilgour has said he was undecided on which way he would vote, but in recent days expressed concern about the direction of the minority Liberal government and the decision to give rookie MP Belinda Stronach a cabinet posting upon her defection from the Conservatives.
Thursday afternoon, however, Mr. Kilgour decided to follow the lead of the Conservatives and give only his support to the broader budget, but not the amendment struck as part of a Liberal deal with the NDP.
"The deciding factor in my decision is a concern about what the postponement of an election will do to Canada's fiscal position," he said in a statement posted on his web site.
"How many more hastily-made long term commitments will the government make if given the opportunity?"
The Liberals and NDP combined have 151 seats versus the 152 for the Conservatives and Bloc, who are aiming to bring down the government.
With independent MP Carolyn Parish siding with the Liberals and Mr. Kilgour with the Opposition, the vote now comes down to Chuck Cadman, who has broadly hinted that he would vote with the Liberals.
If that happens, the two sides would end in a tie (153 to 153) and Liberal House Speaker Liberal Peter Milliken would enter the fray, casting his tie breaking vote with the government.
The vote is scheduled to begin at 5:45 p.m. EDT.
Mr. Kilgour's announcement came during a day of dramatic turns, which have suddenly become the hallmark of the federal political scene. Within weeks, headlines coming out of Parliament have run the gamut from health scares and political defections to broken hears.
Early Thursday, a call by Independent MP Carolyn Parrish — whose support is crucial to the survival of the minority Liberal government — to CTV's Canada AM raised questions about her ability to make it to the House of Commons because of a sudden illness.
A spokesman later insisted that she intended to vote in the House, even if she had to get there on her hands and knees.
“You can quote me on this, she's going to make the vote if she has to crawl,” spokesman Brian MacDonald told globeandmail.com, adding that she is in “a hell of a lot of pain” as result of either a ovarian cyst or kidney stones.
Ms. Parrish herself later said: “Come hell or high water, there's no frigging way I'm going to let one ovary bring the government down.”
Thursday's Parrish scare is just the latest in a whiplash string of events that have besieged the nation's Capital.
At issue is the survival of Prime Minister Paul Martin's minority Liberals in a budget vote that mirros the vote faced by Joe Clark's government in 1979.
Mr. Clark's government lost the vote after the Liberal Whip, determined to beat the Tories, brought in a New Brunswick MP — fresh from back surgery — by ambulance for the ballot.
In a further echo back to that era, sources said Mr. Martin's Liberals sent a doctor to Ms. Parrish's Ottawa home Thursday to make sure she was fine.
If Mr. Martin's Liberals — who have the backing of the NDP on Thursday's vote — lose, the Prime Minister has vowed to dissolve Parliament and call an election. That would come nearly a year to the day that Canadians last learned that they would be sent to the polls.
Exiting Thursday's cabinet meeting, Mr. Martin admitted that government ministers talked “more than a bit” about the vote, but also indicated that their discussions went beyond that to also cover further government business on issues like trade disputes.
