Grits must now govern, analysts say

ALLISON DUNFIELD

Globe and Mail Update

Now that the Liberals have won this evening's budget vote, they must use the momentum to push forward on their spending initiatives and to demonstrate progress on legislation, political analysts say.

“For the Liberals...I think it gives them a summer of stability and an opportunity to actually now move to the next stage of implementing their many-faceted policy agenda and to actually see some of the social and economic policies in place and up and running for the fall.

"It also gives them the opportunity to wait until the heat over the Gomery inquiry settles down," Paul Nesbitt-Larking, a political scientist at Huron University College at Western University, told globeandmail.com in an interview just prior to Thursday's votes. The political scientists interviewed gave their opinons on the hypothetical survival of the Liberal minority.

The crucial vote, an amendment to the budget containing concessions for the NDP, came down to, as Opposition Leader Stephen Harper said, "the slimmest of margins" in the House of Commons Thursday around 5:45 p.m. EDT. The Liberals, NDP and Independent MPs Chuck Cadman and Carolyn Parrish together made up 152 votes in favour of the budget amendment. The Tories and Bloc also came up with 152 votes, meaning the Speaker, Peter Milliken, ended up breaking the tie in favour of the Liberals.

University of Toronto political science professor Stephen Clarkson said he feels the Liberals have been floundering since they were elected as a minority government last June and now, the onus will be on Prime Minister Paul Martin to "deliver."

The government will have to come through on a flurry of pre-election style announcements, including numerous day-care agreements with the provinces and the Atlantic Accord with Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Prof. Clarkson said if the budget vote passes, the Liberals will "have to be seen delivering the goodies."

Parliamentary process has also been hijacked by the political manoeuvring on Parliament Hill over the last month, as the Conservatives have pushed hard for a no-confidence motion to try to defeat the government and force an election.

Mr. Clarkson noted that the Liberals seemed to have regained some of their "political smarts” over the past few weeks by allegedly courting a number of Tory MPs to their benches and by unexpectedly gaining prominent Ontario MP Belinda Stronach just Wednesday.

He said in terms of Mr. Martin, he will have to work hard leading into the fall session to restore his poor image.

"He looks tired, overworked, hassled, frazzled."

The political scientists say that like Mr. Martin, Opposition Leader Stephen Harper and the Conservatives will also have to rethink their strategy and rejuvenate their party, after the devastating loss of Ms. Stronach and the vote for which they strenuously pushed.

Prof. Nesbitt-Larking said the Tories must go away and take a "long hard serious look at where they've been over the past year," including their success rate at appealing to Quebeckers and to moderate, central Ontario voters -- their two goals after last year's federal election.

"I think in both cases they'll find that some very serious soul searching reveals some very serious challenges."

Analysts also said that Mr. Harper himself may find that his leadership is in question following a failure to bring down the government.

Lawrence LeDuc, a political science professor with the University College at the University of Toronto, said he believes while there will be a buzz as to whether Mr. Harper is the right person to lead the party after Thursday's vote, the Tories will likely try again to defeat the government -- as early as the fall.

He said they continue to believe that they can form a minority government, although a blip in the polls that had them leading the Liberals earlier this month seems to have disappeared.

Prof. Nesbitt-Larking said the Tories will have to learn from some of their mistakes, including harsh and personal criticism of the Prime Minister and personal attacks on Ms. Stronach. He said they must also avoid making controversial issues such as same-sex marriage a wedge issue.

As for the Bloc Québécois, the political scientists agreed that they have the least to lose on Thursday night's vote.

The party is in strong standing in their home province and in the polls, they said, and will likely maintain that status through until Mr. Justice John Gomery releases his report on the sponsorship inquiry late this year.

As for the NDP, even if the budget vote does not pass and they do not win their amendments, the analysts agreed they have proven that they have what it takes to hold a minority government to account.

Prof. LeDuc said it may even mean an increase of 2 to 3 percentage points in the next election and a significant boost in seat counts.

In all, Thursday evening will be a significant turning point for the minority Liberals and will prove their ultimate ability to survive and gain strength, the analysts said.

Prof. Nesbitt-Larking said a newly implemented budget means the Liberals must begin governing again, and "start moving on with progressive public policy agenda."

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