Beyond divvying up dollars, provincial budgets are political documents, and Tuesday’s B.C. budget will have to accomplish some key goals for the embattled B.C. Liberal government of Premier Christy Clark.
Intent on winning a fourth straight term in the May, 2013, election, the Liberals are running behind the Opposition NDP in the polls. And, the B.C. Conservative Party is attacking them from the right, eroding the centre-right coalition that sustains the party. The government is under fire over its competence in handling tough files such as justice, health and the HST that will be in the spotlight on Tuesday.
Pollster Mario Canseco says the budget gives Ms. Clark a shot at making a good impression with voters to begin shoring up support.
“It’s the government setting up the agenda for what they want to do,” says the vice-president at Angus Reid Public Opinion. “That’s part of what they need to do on Tuesday – find those two or three sound bites that people are going to think about even if you’re giving them a lot of bad news.”
Here are some of the issues the Liberals have to grapple with:
Deficit: Balancing the books is going to be a key competence test for the Clark government, and Finance Minister Kevin Falcon is sure he can pass. After some uncertainty, he said he can wipe out a $700-million deficit expected for the 2013 fiscal year. This year’s budget is in deficit, but Mr. Falcon will project that the budget for 2013 will be in the black. Failure to balance the budget would be embarrassing for the Liberals. Mr. Falcon told The Canadian Press last week the government won’t slash programs, but also won’t offer much in the way of spending increases either. All of this is a relief to Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president of the B.C. Business Council, who says he got the chills recently reading Don Drummond’s report about Ontario’s structural spending woes. “It’s a homegrown example of how things can spin out of control,” he said, expressing the expectation that Mr. Falcon can confirm a “realistic agenda” for getting back to balance.
Economic Outlook: Mr. Falcon said he’s not as optimistic on growth in Canada, as are his finance minister peers. “We’re in for a slow-growth period across the country, and I think finance ministers had better be budgeting in that manner,” he told The Globe and Mail during a weekend interview. “To be excessively optimistic, I don’t think is reasonable given some of the uncertainty that still swirls around us.” He recently backed the B.C. Economic Forecast Council view that growth for 2012 will be 2.2 per cent. Pointing to the housing outlook, Mr. Falcon said B.C. is a “bit of a standout” given a 26-per-cent jump in housing starts in B.C. in January compared to one per cent across Canada. He said he hoped his announcement last week on HST mitigation measures as they apply to new homes would help spur that sector. “It’s an important employer and a big part of our economy.”
