Dave Parkins for The Globe and Mail
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The pragamatist, the believer and the populist
It’s unprecedented in Canadian electoral history: a blank slate in provincial politics. Within three months, British Columbia will have a new premier and leader of the opposition – both of whom lurk somewhere among the dozen candidates in the Liberal and NDP leadership races. We take stock of the race so far, looking at the Believers, the Pragmatists and the Populists
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The Pragmatist
The pragmatist in politics is adaptable – the raccoon who can survive in a changing environment. The task of balancing political alliances requires dexterity too, although too much flexibility can be seen as a weakness. The pragmatic politician leans toward substance rather than charisma – not always the favourite of B.C. voters.
As both the B.C. Liberals and the B.C. New Democrats are suffering from stagnating support, the field has plenty of moderate leadership hopefuls offering to restore their fractured coalitions and appealing to the province’s rich field of swing voters.
The NDP’s Mike Farnworth carefully navigated the recent upheaval in his party and caucus, staying loyal to outgoing leader Carole James without demonizing her critics. Like Ms. James and former premier Mike Harcourt, he seeks to not inordinately terrorize the business community. His tough-on-crime positions as the NDP justice critic cross political boundaries. In fact, he’s attracted federal Liberals to his campaign, as well as key organizers from the Vision Vancouver team.
Pay attention to the political style inherent in his handling of the crime file. Mr. Farnworth says he plans to expand that approach to other issues such as the economy, looking to shore up NDP weakness on matters the Liberals have tended to monopolize. “It’s not a question of being left or right or middle. It’s about being relevant,” he said at his campaign launch this week.
On the Liberal side, those claiming the middle ground include former cabinet ministers George Abbott, Moira Stilwell and Mike de Jong.
Mr. Abbott stands out in the race so far in terms of caucus support and detailed policy proposals. He negotiated the political minefields of the ministries of health and aboriginal affairs without triggering explosive conflicts. Inside of cabinet, he stood up to Premier Gordon Campbell yet kept his post. Beneath the affable demeanour and self-deprecating humor is a tough core. His tendency to be flippant might add a frisson to the job of premier, but he is a moderate within the spectrum of the B.C. Liberal coalition.
— Dave Parkins for The Globe and Mail
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The Believer
You know where the believer stands. Look away. Look back. He or she is rooted on the political spot. With the unshakable confidence of a black bear, this politician has the kinds of ideals that will leave no room for doubt in the minds of British Columbians.
In B.C., that means clear choices. By polarizing politics and exploiting wedge issues, this brand of politician can motivate core supporters – and sometimes steal from opponents.
This is how Glen Clark won the 1996 election. The B.C. Liberals had more votes. However, Mr. Clark, who entered and left the race as premier, mobilized supporters in the right places and secured a majority of legislature seats.
Kevin Falcon is the most polarizing politician in the B.C. Liberal race. Mr. Falcon, who once touted “believer” politicians Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher as political heroes, has made a concerted effort to demonstrate that he has federal Liberals in his tent, because his natural base is with the Conservative end of the spectrum. He likes to “tell it like it is” and has a way of provoking his critics on the left. He excels in the cut and thrust of debate in the legislature. He is not known as a conciliator.
Adrian Dix will soon be joining the race for the NDP leadership. He will brand himself as the best person to take on the Liberals. As the opposition critic for health, and for the Ministry of Children and Family Development, he brought a ninja’s finesse to the art of going for the jugular.
Like any successful politician, Mr. Dix and Mr. Falcon also blur the lines, showing the occasional flash of the populist and demonstrating the ability to be pragmatic when called upon. But both would emphatically define their stands and preferred battles.
NDP leadership candidates Harry Lali and Nicholas Simons will similarly play to the true believers in the New Democrat base with traditional party appeals on social justice and the environment. Neither has a strong chance at winning, but they can drive the debate within the NDP. Mr. Simons wants to eliminate poverty and homelessness, while Mr. Lali promised to stir things up. In his own words: “If there is blood on the NDP convention floor due to full, honest and meaningful debate of contentious issues, then so be it.”
— Dave Parkins for The Globe and Mail
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The Populist
The populist is the humble beaver who can harness the power around him to reshape the political landscape. Alluring charm is among the items he employs to move things his way. Premier Gordon Campbell flirted with this approach early in his political career, although the plaid shirt he donned on the campaign trail did not fit well.
But Christy Clark, following her departure from provincial politics in 2005, has had three years to work on her charm and communication skills thanks to her weekday radio talk show on CKNW. Few modern Canadian politicians have had such an opportunity. Ms. Clark is deploying the results of this experience to cheerily suggest she had nothing to do with the more challenging aspects of the B.C. Liberal record because she was on the air while they were being developed and announced. Therefore, she says, she brings a fresh perspective to things, but one grounded in previous cabinet experience as deputy premier, education minister and minister of children and families.
John Horgan isn’t well known off Vancouver Island, but he is a good talker with a big personality that fills a room. He has strong New Democrat roots, but on policy, he can swing to the right end of the party’s spectrum – a Roy Romanow kind of New Democrat.
Dana Larsen, best known as the former Marijuana Party Leader, is running for the NDP with a platform topped by promises of direct democracy.
Ex-Parksville mayor Ed Mayne was virtually unknown until he entered the Liberal leadership race, saying he was motivated by the need to bring the people’s voice to Victoria.
Veteran political scientist Norman Ruff argues B.C. voters may be attracted to a populist these days thanks to the direct democracy efforts of the Fight HST campaign.
“The mood of the electorate has changed,” he noted. “The people want to be involved in decision-making more than they used to, and they are not prepared to give leaders the benefit of the doubt,” he said. “The political populist is likely to win out, the person who claims to be listening but carries a sense of direction.”
— Dave Parkins for The Globe and Mail
