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babad's weekend

A different look at the news

  • Rejecting Donald Trump
  • Remember Dewey vs. Truman?
  • Wine production and climatic events
  • What to watch and read this weekend
  • What to watch for (and ponder) in the coming days

The past week

I’ve learned over the past few weeks that some Trump supporters can be as vitriolic as the man himself.

Well, to use his words, I’m not a bad hombre (or a nasty woman) because I don’t like his policies and the comments that accompany them.

It’s true that Donald Trump is a journalist’s dream. He’s outrageous, which obviously makes for good copy.

But most importantly, he needs to be held accountable for his policies and the hatred that he spews. He and his comments need to be deconstructed day after day so everyone knows what they’re getting if he’s elected president of the United States.

So I’m troubled when a certain type of person comes out of the woodwork via Twitter or e-mail to tell me that I should write more about Hillary Clinton’s bad points, that Mr. Trump has it right, and that I somehow haven’t tapped into the heartbeat of America. I’m not thin-skinned, and I don’t pay much attention to certain comments, but I do find those certain comments worrisome.

Whatever I happen to think aside, I write mainly about economic and market issues, primarily as they relate to Canada.

And economists happen to believe that a Clinton presidency would have a marginally negative impact up here, while Mr. Trump could be big trouble. Which is one of the reasons I frequently revisit the issue.

And that’s aside from what I think about Mr. Trump’s comments on Muslims and Mexicans, locker room banter, bad hombres and nasty women.

The markets believe Mr. Trump is headed for defeat (in what he sees as a rigged election), as you can see in the rise of Mexico’s peso.

“As for a Trump victory, it would immediately be followed by short-term market panic over fears that he could spark a global trade war,” Angelo Katsoras, a geopolitical analyst at National Bank, warned recently.

“The risk of market turmoil is reinforced by the fact polls show that the citizens of almost all G20 countries (with the exception of Russia) are rooting for a Clinton victory.”

This week, Mr. Trump was faced with an opportunity to win back some lost ground.

And here’s what my colleague Affan Chowdhry says of the last debate.

“The final presidential debate in Las Vegas followed the trend by breaking new ground in aggression and ugliness. The script went something like this: Debate starts more or less normally, then Hillary Clinton presses one of Donald Trump’s buttons, what happens next is an onstage outburst and public meltdown. This time, it was Ms. Clinton’s attack on one of his beautiful towers in Las Vegas, built with Chinese steel. Ms. Clinton consistently did a masterful job throughout the debates of getting under Mr. Trump’s skin. She played him like a puppet.

“The tone of the election is enough to drive voters away. But the numbers tell a different story. A record 84 million watched the first debate, and then a big drop off for the second debate with 66.5 million tuning in. In the final debate: the audience punched in at 71.6 million for the third most-watched debate in history. At some point after voting day, American voters will need a cleanse diet to get all the toxins out – because they can’t help but watch.”

It’s true that Mr. Trump has tapped into an anger in America. Which no doubt needs to be addressed. Just not by him.

“One major reason why Donald Trump has not fallen behind even further in the polls despite his many gaffes is the general collapse in trust for the traditional governing elite,” Mr. Katsoras said.

“The view that this elite is responsible for America’s bungled wars, the financial crisis and stagnant wages has allowed Trump to survive errors that would have eliminated most other establishment candidates,” he added.

“Win or lose, the rise of Trump (and Sanders for that matter) has changed the country’s geopolitical landscape and is a warning to the governing elite that the American public is angry with the current state of affairs.”

Which suggests to an outside observer that the issue is real, and a Bernie Sanders is needed, but a Trump is certainly not.

“Investors continue to regard Donald Trump with a wary eye, although they are none too keen on Hillary taking a clean sweep either,” IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said after the third and final debate.

“Most continue to cross their fingers and hope for a GOP victory on the Hill and Mrs. Clinton in the White House.”

And on that note ...

“Of course I accept the results.”

“Rigged!.”

Photo illustrations

Chart of the week

Not good news from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine this week: “2016 production among the lowest in 20 years, yet highly contrasting situations as a consequence of climatic events.”


Your weekend

First, have a mid-project check-in on my friend Dave McGinn’s midlife series. Here’s what he says this week:

“Here at the start of this project examining a person’s 40s, which we’ve dubbed Halftime, it seemed natural to take a look at one of the biggest things that hangs over middle age and comes up so often in people’s thinking about those years: the dreaded midlife crisis. The term gets thrown around so casually it’s hard to tell what it even means. The social scientists I spoke to all say there is actually no such thing. It’s a myth. But that’s not why I’m trying to make the case that it’s time we stopped using the term.”

On to books. And hockey.

Author Brent Popplewell reviews 99: Stories of the Game, by Wayne Gretzky, of course, with Kirstie McLellan Day.

And Michael Hingston looks at Marty Klinkenberg’s The McDavid Effect: Connor McDavid and the New Hope for Hockey.

Night out: My colleague Kate Taylor looks at American Pastoral, with Ewan McGregor’s directorial debut, and finds it lacking the “emotional range” of the Philip Roth novel.

Source: Giphy.com

And Barry Hertz takes apart a movie based on one of my favourite series, Lee Child’s Jack Reacher.

It’s Tom Cruise again in the title role, and Barry feels this sequel lacks the tension and drama of Mr. Child’s novel.


The week ahead

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and deputy Carolyn Wilkins are back before a Commons committee on Monday, having just cut their forecasts for economic growth and leaving the door open to another cut in interest rates.

Baseball’s over for Toronto Blue Jays fans but ... the NBA’s regular season starts on Tuesday. The Raptors are up Wednesday night against Detroit.

Also on Tuesday, our new Supreme Court nominee, Justice Malcolm Rowe, will be questioned by Members of Parliament and Senators.