With businessman John Tory unequivocally out of a campaign he never actually entered, Toronto’s marathon mayoral race faces two new questions as the five leading contenders slog towards the post-Labour Day sprint.
What becomes of the political donations that may have been earmarked for Mr. Tory’s eventual entry? And how will his exit affect the endorsements of the bloc of centrist councillors who quietly determine City Hall’s balance of power?
Fundraising veterans and campaign officials have differing takes on what might be called the Tory windfall. Mr. Tory has impeccable connections on Bay Street and in philanthropic circles, having raised millions for charities like the Salvation Army.
“John Tory is a formidable fundraiser,” says John Matheson, who is working on Rocco Rossi’s campaign. “That money now, by definition, is free.”
How much there was, of course, can never be known. Contributors “tend to give it to people they like and if they don’t like anyone, they don’t give it,” observes former Ontario premier David Peterson. Other campaign veterans point out that many donors so far have been sitting on their wallets and purses.
Fundraisers for the two leading candidates, George Smitherman and Rob Ford, took pains to play down any financial upside of Mr. Tory’s departure.
Veteran Bay Street lawyer Ralph Lean, who helped Mayor David Miller in 2006 and is working on Mr. Smitherman’s team, insists that his candidate’s fundraising is squarely on track. He disputes the theory that Mr. Tory would be able to cash in a lot of chits at this stage of the game.
“I don’t think there was much money,” he says. “I expected that if Tory was going to run, he would do a lot of self-financing.”
“That’s false,” replies Mr. Tory, who says he compiled a list of about 40 non-aligned fundraisers willing to work on his campaign, which he intended to finance through donations plus a personal contribution of approximately $30,000, as he did in the 2003 race.
Doug Ford, campaign manager for brother Rob, says his team is steering clear of Bay Street contributions, opting instead to raise small dollar contributions ($50 to $100) from “grassroots” supporters. Mr. Tory’s decision “doesn’t make a difference really,” Mr. Ford says. “We’re going after different segments of the population than the other candidates.”
Both Mr. Lean and Mr. Ford agree the new campaign finance rules – which prohibit corporate and union donations, and limit individual contributions to the mayoral campaigns to $2,500 – have made it more difficult to assemble a war chest.
Mr. Tory’s decision will also force thousands of middle-of-the-road voters disenchanted with the roster thus far to pick a candidate.
“The broad middle is up for grabs,” Mr. Peterson said. “John and George would have been in the same space, overlapping into Rocco. The Ford supporters tend to be of a different type. The middle is much broader than the extremes and that’s where John would have been.”
Councillors Peter Milczyn and Denzil Minnan-Wong were among Mr. Tory’s faithful on council – their three-person cell, headed by Councillor Case Ootes, was charged with helping to draft a detailed platform.
It outlined plans to tackle the city’s finances, transit woes, the social issues Mr. Tory has noted on multiple occasions have been missing from the campaign so far – and included timelines for each, Mr. Milczyn says.
The concept? “Change that would work.”
“We were planning to roll it out at John Tory’s campaign launch – but we needed a candidate.”
Mr. Milczyn wagers about half of council – largely its centrist-voting councillors – was holding out for a Tory candidacy.
Gloria Lindsay Luby was one of them. And now, she says, she’s hearing a lot of “none of the above.
“People you meet on the street, that you talk to casually, say, ‘I’ve always voted, and this time I’m not going to.”
With Mr. Ford pulling ahead in a contest with many undecided voters, some normally right-of-centre councillors are becoming cautious about endorsing his simple “cut-spending” mantra.
“People just buy into a simple phrase – ‘Oh yeah, we’re going to cut.’ …It’s not until the cuts hit home that they say, ‘Wait just a second here,’ ” Ms. Lindsay Luby says.
