Councillor Rob Ford is a surprise close second to George Smitherman in the mayor’s race, according to a poll commissioned by Rocco Rossi’s campaign and viewed by The Globe and Mail.
The poll puts Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone in third place, Mr. Rossi in fourth, magazine publisher Sarah Thomson in fifth and Councillor Giorgio Mammoliti in sixth.
We asked all the major camps for a glimpse of their internal numbers. Campaign workers for Mr. Smitherman, Mr. Pantalone and Mr. Mammoliti said they hadn’t conducted any polls yet. The Thomson camp declined to say either way.
Councillor Ford’s brother and manager Doug Ford said their internal polling puts Mr. Ford and Mr. Smitherman in a dead heat, but he refused to elaborate or show us the numbers.
“It’s neck and neck, let’s just say it that way,” Doug Ford said. “It’s extremely close."
The Rossi poll, conducted by a major firm which we agreed not to name in exchange for a look at the figures, surveyed 482 Torontonians drawn from an online panel over four days beginning March 26 -- the day after Mr. Ford officially entered the contest. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5%.
While the Rossi campaign agreed to reveal where the leading candidates placed, it would not divulge what percentage of the theoretical vote each captured.
However, campaign manager Sachin Aggarwal walked us through much of the rest of the poll and what he believes it means for Mr. Rossi, a former director of the federal Liberal party and CEO of the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario who has never held elected office.
“The head to head numbers reflect name recognition, particularly at this stage of the game,” Mr. Aggarwal said. “The other findings, which are extremely encouraging, are our potential for growth. Even voters who are currently favouring another candidate are still looking at us. That’s extremely important in a long election like this.”
Here, then, are some of the more interesting results from the Rossi poll.
1. The favourable and unfavourable ratings for each candidate:
George Smitherman: 44% favourable/32% unfavourable/24% never heard of him or her.
Ford: 35/ 30/ 35
Pantalone: 32/41/27
Rossi: 31/31/38
Mammoliti: 18/44/37
Thomson: 18/21/61
2. The percentage of respondents who say they’d never vote for the following candidates:
Ford: 12%
Smitherman: 11%
Mammoliti: 9%
Pantalone: 7%
Rossi: 5%
Thomson: 4%
This last set it is interesting, though not terribly surprising. Mr. Ford’s detractors tend to be as passionate as his fans. More fascinating is this next set:
3. Second choice for mayor:
Rossi: 17%
Smitherman: 15%
Ford: 9%
Pantalone: 9%
Mammoliti: 6%
Thomson: 6%
“Our numbers tell us that Ford and Pantalone have limited growth potential,” Mr. Aggarwal said, “and that Smitherman has high negatives and vulnerabilities.” He pointed to this next series of numbers to illustrate that last point.
4. The facts about George Smitherman and how it may or may not influence your vote. (Here the campaign provided respondents five “facts” about Mr. Smitherman and asked whether it would make them much more likely, somewhat more likely, something less likely or much less likely to vote for him or have no impact on their view. We’ve just included the overall result for ease of reading.)
i. recently a cabinet minister in McGuinty government: Even
ii: Worked as a lobbyist for bank mergers: -17
iii: Endorsed by some of the city’s unions: -18*
iv: No serious private-sector experience: -27
v: Involved with the eHealth scandal: -48
*The Globe’s footnote: Mr. Smitherman hasn’t been endorsed (at least not publicly) by any unions working directly for the city. The carpenters’ union has endorsed him.
4. The facts about Rocco Rossi, same formula as above applies.
i. Has strong private sector experience: +43
ii: Former CEO of Heart and Stroke Foundation: +35
iii: Former director of the national Liberal party: +8
iv: Never held elected office: -9
After answering the “facts” sections, respondents were asked who they would vote for, Mr. Rossi or Mr. Smitherman. Mr. Rossi beat Mr. Smitherman 61% to 39%.
All this means, “we’re on the right track,” Mr. Aggarwal said. “Voters are looking at us. They tell us who has potential for growth in the race and who doesn’t.”
Take all this with massive grain of salt. These are one candidate’s internal numbers, described by that candidate’s team. But the numbers are real. Not only that, they’re our first real glimpse at how the field is faring at this stage of the game. Nobody can deny now that Mr. Ford and Mr. Pantalone are serious players in this race that has grown very hot very fast. Only seven months (and lord knows how many more polls) to go.
