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John Tory leads the pack of undeclared candidates for mayor of Toronto by a wide margin, according to a new poll by Angus Reid Strategies.

Of decided voters, 46 per cent said they would vote for former Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader John Tory, who came a close second to Mayor David Miller in the race for Toronto mayor in 2003. Ontario deputy premier and infrastructure minister George Smitherman polled a distant second, with 21 per cent of decided voters saying they would pick him.

In third place in the poll at 14 per cent is Toronto city councillor Adam Giambrone, a close ally of Mr. Miller and chairman of the Toronto Transit Commission who, like Mr. Tory and Mr. Smitherman, is also contemplating a run.

“There are three very viable candidates at this stage...but after the lessons we learned in 2003 frankly it is anyone’s game,” says Jodi Shanoff, vice-president of public affairs for Angus Reid Strategies. At the start of the 2003 race, former Toronto mayor Barbara Hall held a commanding lead with support from 50 per cent of voters, according to one poll at the time. By election day in November 2003, she finished a distant third to Mr. Miller, who began the race as a dark-horse contender.

Given that 47 per cent of those in today’s poll are undecided about their choice for mayor in 2010, Ms. Shanoff warned “these numbers will move significantly in the coming months.”

Among other prospective candidates who are considering a mayoral bid, former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray received 8 per cent support from those surveyed compared to 3 per cent for city councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong, 2 per cent for fellow councillor Michael Thompson and one per cent for city councillor Giorgio Mammoliti, the only one so far to publicly throw his hat into the ring.

One name that Angus Reid did not include in its list of possible candidates is city budget chief Shelley Carroll, who says she has not ruled out a run.

Candidates cannot officially announce their intentions until Jan. 4, the earliest date for filing nomination papers. The municipal election was set for November, 2010 but may be moved up to October, 2010 under proposed rule changes by the Ontario government.

For its survey, Angus Reid polled 500 Toronto residents recruited from its national online panel of Canadians. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.