Globe reporters discuss the Alberta election

Globe and Mail Update

"In his first electoral test as party leader, Ed Stelmach led the Alberta Progressive Conservatives to a landslide victory last night – a feat even his predecessor Ralph Klein wasn't counting on," The Globe's Dawn Walton and Katherine O'Neill write today in their article Alberta Tories win overwhelming majority

"The [provincial] Tories, Canada's oldest reigning political dynasty, were leading or elected in 72 [of 83] ridings, with about 53 per cent of the popular vote.

"Before the 28-day election campaign kicked off last month, Mr. Klein predicted the right-wing party would win its 11th consecutive majority, but likely lose seats because of an uneasy electorate," Ms. Walton and Mrs. O'Neill note.

Mr. Stelmach was pleased with the results.

"Welcome to Alberta's century. Friends, today Albertans have spoken," the premier told a packed room of cheering supporters in Edmonton.

"We knew we would have a big battle on our hands and the candidates came through."

When the Premier entered the room, his wife Marie by his side, Christina Aguliera's pop song Ain't No Other Man was blaring in the background.

"Ladies and gentleman, it's not really how long you govern, it's how well you govern," he said to cheers of "Ed! Ed! Ed."

The opposition Liberals were never able to exploit widespread sentiment in the province that it was time for a new government.

An expected electoral breakthrough in Calgary, a long-time Tory stronghold, didn't materialize for the Liberals, putting the future of party Leader Kevin Taft in serious doubt.

"All of us should hold our heads high for fighting for democracy because no matter what, trying to change the world for the better is always worth the effort," Mr. Taft told crestfallen supporters in Edmonton.

He vowed to stay on as leader and not give the Tories "a free ride."

The Tories, who have governed debt-free Alberta since 1971, also gained back seats in Edmonton. In the past, the oil-rich province's capital city has been derisively dubbed Redmonton for its habit of electing left-leaning politicians.

Despite the desire for change and heavy advertising from special-interest groups urging voters to elect a new government, the electorate appeared swayed by Mr. Stelmach's promise of "change that works for Albertans."

What's your view? What do you want to know about the election?

Ms. Walton and Mrs. O'Neill, based in Calgary and in Edmonton respectively, joined us online Tuesday to analyze the results and answer your questions.

Your questions and their replies are posted at the bottom of this page.

Dawn Walton Ms. Walton is a Globe and Mail national correspondent based in Calgary. She has previously written for The Ottawa Citizen, Canadian Business magazine and The Kingston Whig-Standard.

She is a National Newspaper Award winner and has been twice nominated for the Michener Award for meritorious public service journalism.

She holds a Bachelor of Journalism from Carleton University as well as an LL.B. from Queen's University.

Dawn Walton Mrs. O'Neill has been covering Alberta politics for The Globe and Mail since moving to Edmonton at the start of the 2004 provincial election campaign.

She is a Carleton University journalism graduate, holds a political science degree from Wilfrid Laurier University and has also reported from Toronto City Hall and Queen's Park.

During the final week of the 2004 Alberta campaign, Mrs. O'Neill convinced former Tory premier Ralph Klein to officially write down his retirement plans.

"I will stay 3¾ yrs., Ralph" the Prairie populist famously wrote in her notebook — much to the chagrin of many Conservatives.

Mr. Klein ended up leaving politics in December of 2006, mainly because of a dismal showing he received earlier in the year during a leadership review by his party.

Sasha Nagy, globeandmail.com: Dawn and Katherine: Thanks for taking reader questions today. My first thought, when seeing the results was that perhaps Ralph Klein wasn't such a great leader after all. Here we have Ed Stelmach, panned by everyone, trouncing the competition a la King Ralph. I think the Tories could probably win with a garden gnome leading them. What about Stelmach? Do these results vindicate him? Do they remove the question marks that surrounded him entering into this campaign.

Katherine O'Neill: Thanks, Sasha. Last night was a big for Ed Stelmach because he's finally emerged from Ralph Klein's long shadow. Since the ex-farmer took over from Mr. Klein, there has been lots of talk that he was not up to snuff to lead the right-wing political dynasty. There was even speculation his leadership would be in jeopardy if he lost seats but still retained a majority. That talk is definitely dead this morning.

Kerry Williamson, New Zealand: Hey Dawn and Katherine, nice work on the election-that-nobody-cares-about.

When I left Alberta five months ago, it seemed that voters were baying for the blood of Stelmach and his government. But now we've got another solid Tory majority. What happened?

Dawn Walton: Greetings Kerry. How quickly things changed since you left. You probably recall the 2004 election was dubbed the "Kleinfeld" campaign about nothing that saw then-premier Ralph Klein lose support, which precipitated his forced retirement in 2006.

This campaign was supposed to be about change — or so the opposition parties had hoped. Observers said this was the Liberal Party's best shot at knocking down the 37-year-old regime headed by new, untested leader Ed Stelmach in a booming economy that is starting to show cracks.

Polls showed a great many Albertans wanted to change. Liberal Leader Kevin Taft hoped to capitalize on it, but the polls were never behind him as the agent of change.

Last night, around 60 per cent of eligible voters stayed home, the worst turnout in Alberta's electoral history. Forty-seven-per-cent of the popular votes was cast for opposition parties, but it badly fractured among the Liberals, New Democrats, Wildrose Alliance and Green Party, which allowed the Tories to sweep the province with 53 per cent popular support.

But some observers suggest the result is not as much of an endorsement of Mr. Stelmach's Tories as it is an outright rejection of the alternatives. In any event, Albertans have asked the Tories to change from within.

Joe Loria, Calgary posted the following question on your main article on the election. Care to comment?

"The Liberal Party of Alberta might as well fold their tent. There is not enough demand here for the kind of policies they are selling." Ditch the "Liberal" name, ditch the leader, join forces with the right-wing parties, hold a leadership convention, and go from there.

Katherine O'Neill: Thanks for the question, Joe. Last night's result was a massive disaster for the Alberta Liberals. Albertans told the pollsters during the campaign that they wanted change, but the Liberals were never able to capitalize on this widespread sentiment. The debt-ridden party, which had a tiny election war chest compared to the Tories, saw its seat count drop to nine from 16 seats.

I'm not so sure their policies can be blamed. For example, they've been proposing to scrap health care premiums for years. If it was such a bad idea, why did the Tories decided to eliminate the fee just hours before dropping the writ last month?

Moving forward, I think the party needs to radically transform its brand if it ever wants to defeat the Tories. The Liberal name obviously doesn't sell well in Alberta -- there's still lots of resentment and anger about Trudeau's loathed National Energy Program. A new name should be a given, but don't count on it happening. The Liberals have considered this in the past and always rejected it.

Kevin Taft should step down as leader immediately so the search for his successor can begin. The party, which hasn't governed Alberta since 1921, needs to recruit a strong leader with mass appeal, especially in rural Alberta. There's lots of chatter that someone like Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier would fit the bill.

Bradly Wiebe posted the following question on your main article. Care to comment?

"Nearly half the province voted for someone other than the Tories . . . and they get a whopping 10 seats to work with instead of the 40 or so they are due by popular vote. Shameful." [What would have happened under proportional representation?]

Dawn Walton: Excellent question Bradly.

Fair Vote Canada, a national lobby group aimed at improving voting systems across the country, quickly issued a press release this morning to note that for only the third time in the past 20 years Albertans have a majority government actually elected by a majority of the popular vote.

But the association's president, Stephen Broscoe, was quick to point out that just under half of Albertans voted for opposition parties, yet gained just 11 of the 83 seats in the legislature.

"As usual, the first-past-the-post voting system distorted the results and denied fair representation to a significant portion of the electorate," he said.

Mr. Broscoe said while it's impossible to know what the legislature would have looked like under another voting system, he said if all votes cast had equal value, Albertans would likely have elected about 44 Tories, 22 Liberals, 7 New Democrats, 6 Wildrose Alliance, and 4 Green Party MLAs.

"We would have seen a much stronger opposition, a more balanced legislature, and most importantly, Albertans would have seen their votes accurately reflected in the election results," he said.

It may also be worth noting that only about 38 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots yesterday, a record low in a province where turnout has been sliding for years. In 2004, just 44.7 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots, which until last night, was considered the worst turnout in Alberta's history and the lowest of any provincial election in the country since 1970.

Vern McPherson posted the following question on your main article. Care to comment?

Why did they (Alberta voters) not choose the Wild Rosers, who are further right?

Katherine O'Neill: Wildrose Alliance Leader Paul Hinman has already blamed Tory fear-mongering for his party's poor showing last night. Mr. Hinman told a Calgary radio show this morning Tory Leader Ed Stelmach's comments during the campaign that a vote for the Wildrose Alliance party was really a vote for the Liberals was a "watershed moment".

I think he's partly right that the fear of vote splitting convinced some disgruntled Tories, especially in rural Alberta, to not stray and vote for this new upstart right-wing party for fear of electing a Liberal.

However, I think the Wildrose Alliance's biggest problem was its lack of profile and money. Plain and simple. It was formed in January and the party didn't even run a full slate of candidates. It also had a tiny campaign budget.

Toxic Issue: Was Taft insane to actually state in his platform that he would introduce hard caps on Alberta's energy sector? Do you seriously think anyone who would endorse such an idea is actually competent enough to run a provincial economy that is energy-development based? On that alone, he failed to attract my vote.

Dawn Walton: We expected the environment and climate change to be hot button issues in this election and both did rank high with voters, according to some polls.

Alberta has the fastest growth in greenhouse gas emissions and is responsible for one-third of the country's total. Progressive Conservative Leader Ed Stelmach pledged to let emissions to rise until 2020 and then cut them by 14 per cent from 2005 levels by 2050.

It was a policy criticized both in Alberta and across the country.

On the campaign trail, Mr. Stelmach was followed by oil sands protestors, but he maintained that his is a plan that is "achievable, realistic and fiscally responsible."

He attacked the Liberal policy of hard caps in the shorter term suggesting it could cripple the province's economy and cut 335,000 jobs. It was a statistic he initially refused to source, but eventually clarified as representing the number of energy-related jobs across the country.

Liberal Leader Kevin Taft was unable to exploit that misstep. He also had the support of several special interest groups that rated his environmental plan as superior, but wasn't able to translate that into voter support either. Mr. Stelmach's pledge not to let government "control the economy" was clearly more persuasive in oil-rich Alberta than what the Liberals proposed.

Dennis Petruk: So, the two reporters are from Ontario and are somehow qualified to report from an Alberta perspective. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The one important thing they don't, or won't, realize is that to be right wing in Alberta is not heresy. It's accepted and, quite frankly, enjoyed. Our premiers don't blatantly lie to us before an election and get re-elected. Ministers don't threaten to wear a diaper. Our province is the main engine in the Canadian economy and the Conservatives were somewhat responsible for it.

Where, oh where, did these two get the impression that "Albertans want change?" Perhaps next time, the G&M should get an Albertan to cover our election. There's something scary about an Ontarian covering an election in Alberta.

Dawn Walton: What you are suggesting amounts to asserting only NHL players can write about the Stanley Cup playoffs; only actors can write movie reviews; only soldiers who have been on tour in Afghanistan can write about the mission, and; Albertans cannot write about Ontario, Quebec, Ottawa …

But to address your other point, a number polls showed a great number of Albertans wanted change, a fact that was widely reported by our news organization and others. However, we were, as far as we can tell, the only media outlet to suggest early on that despite the mood for change, the Tories looked poised to make gains and even surpass the 70-seat mark.

Ron White from Calgary writes: WOW! I didn't see that coming. As a long-time PC I decided this time I needed a change and voted Liberal. I was quite shocked and disappointed that again there is no opposition to this government. I figured they would get elected but not like this. Ladies, How come we didn't see this coming?

Dawn Walton: Hi Ron. The shock you express is shared by many here. The provincial media didn't want to believe it and neither did many voters, but The Globe and Mail spoke to a few prescient folks who predicted precisely this result.

Our Strategic Counsel poll showed an overwhelming majority for the Tories. Based on that poll, political scientist Keith Brownsey at Mount Royal College expected Ed Stemach's Tories would take 70 seats.

Janet Brown, a public opinion research consultant who has designed a seat projection model that predicts election outcomes with uncanny accuracy, echoed that sentiment.

"I feel like I'm really sticking my neck out, but I think they're going to gain seats," she said of the Tories.

She projected the next legislature would house 72 Tories, 8 Liberals and 3 New Democrats.

The final result: Tories 72, Liberals 9 and NDP 2.

During the 2004 provincial election, Ms. Brown predicted every seat correctly except one in the contentious riding of Edmonton-Castle Downs where Tory Thomas Lukaszuk beat Liberal Chris Kibermanis by three votes — a tally confirmed by the courts.

Sasha Nagy writes: Dawn and Katherine: Thanks for answering questions on the Alberta election. In closing, can you fill us in on what can we expect to see now from the Stelmach government?

Katherine O'Neill: Mr. Stelmach told reporters last night after his victory speech that he intends to meet with his caucus on Thursday to begin mapping out the government's agenda. He will also need to put together a cabinet in the coming days, which will be difficult task considering he now has 71 people to choose from. Many people may remember his first cabinet after he took over from Ralph Klein in late 2006 was widely panned. There were criticisms he appointed too many rural rookies and not enough Calgary MLAs.

Policy wise, Mr. Stelmach told reporters that he's going to continue building a plan to manage Alberta's explosive growth. He said there would be no radical changes and he will continue to govern with a steady hand. That's quite vague, I know, and hopefully we will all find out more when Mr. Stelmach meets with reporters in Edmonton later this afternoon.

Dawn Walton: It may be worth noting that this resounding victory for Mr. Stelmach may finally end the quiet complaining from those who backed Jim Dinning, a Calgary businessman, in the hotly contested 2006 leadership race. Mr. Stelmach may have been the compromise candidate who spent more than 14 months as the unelected premier, but now, it's clear he has the blessing of his party and the people of Alberta.

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