News

Americans are a proud and patriotic people. They live in the world's only superpower. They have the highest standard of living in the world, measured by per-capita income. Today, however, they are perplexed, anxious.

Powerful countries expect to control many events, not have events control them; the most powerful country expects to control all events, and to respond to the unforeseen in dramatic, conclusive ways. Smaller countries accept that they are takers of world events, and use whatever influence they can, with others, to mould them.

Americans seem to have lost control of their ability to make decisions that will produce satisfactory results. Their deep faith in and love for their country remains unimpaired; their belief in its ability to get a grip on domestic and international problems has been shaken.

For some years now, basic problems have gone unaddressed and have worsened in the United States: fiscal and trade imbalances, unfunded liabilities for health care and Social Security, and the design and execution of a foreign policy that has sent U.S. prestige to postwar lows.

It was not supposed to be this way after the Cold War ended. Supreme militarily, untroubled economically, the U.S. sailed through the 1990s. Russia was down, out and friendly. China was only beginning its spectacular rise. Terrorism had struck, but far away: in Africa and the Middle East. Afghanistan, having thrown out the Soviets, seemed out of sight, in hand.

The United States could reduce its defence budget (the "peace dividend") and pick and choose its spots to intervene militarily (Rwanda, no; Bosnia, no and yes; Haiti, a little), enjoying a soaring stock market, the high-technology boom, rising housing prices and a balanced budget.

Today, according to Pew Center polls, 70 per cent of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Eight-one per cent believes economic conditions are "fair or poor." New, depressing economic news arrives almost daily. President George W. Bush's approval rating stands at 33 per cent; that of the Democratic-controlled Congress at 21 per cent.

A staggering 80 per cent say they want "change." This share of voters far eclipses the share who wanted change after eight years each of presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

The terrorist attacks of 9/11 were the most evident manifestation of events being out of control. The sense of vulnerability, even fear, does not guide Americans in their daily lives, but it has become part of the country's political discourse and shapes its spending priorities. In addition to the immense bureaucracy of the Department of Homeland Security, the airport searches and passport requirements, the curtailment of civil liberties, the torturing of prisoners, there was also the invasion of Iraq, the linchpin of the Bush administration's "war on terror."

The invasion and occupation were supposed to be easy, like a half-hour on the treadmill for a seasoned athlete. Instead, the U.S. is pinned down, caught between two broad options: to maintain or intensify military deployments with as many as 160,000 troops, for a long time, hoping for political stability; or to withdraw from Iraq with the possibility, or likelihood, of sectarian violence and civil war.

Afghanistan was supposed to be cleared of the Taliban, the friends of al-Qaeda, the murderers of Americans. Instead, the insurgency there has returned with a vengeance in certain parts of the country. Pakistan was supposed to be a reliable ally in the "war on terror." Yet the country has become the most dangerous in the world: unstable, nuclear-armed, run until recently by a dictator, incapable of exerting serious pressure against religious fanatics in its own territory.

Russia has returned to the world stage in a truculent fashion, featuring the return of 19th-century Great Russian chauvinism. The drunken, friendly Boris Yeltsin has yielded to the stern Vladimir Putin. China has become so economically powerful so fast, and its military budget has increased so rapidly, that Americans wonder how long it will be before their undisputed standing as the world's only superpower will last.

COLD COMFORT

China also holds more than $1-trillion in U.S. debt, which itself stands above $9-trillion. China's trade surplus with the U.S. remains huge. Jobs continue to move from the U.S. to China. It is cold comfort to hollowed-out towns and workers at empty mills that these moves might keep costs down in the U.S., make companies lean and lower inflationary pressures. Pew Center surveys of world opinion now show support for free trade lowest in the United States of all the countries surveyed.

The erosion of respect for and the popularity of the United States bothers at least some citizens in a country that is supposed to offer a "light unto the world," to be a repository of values and institutions to which all countries will aspire, now or eventually. To discover through the media or travel or personal experience that the country's standing has declined almost everywhere (India and Japan being two exceptions) is hard for alert Americans to accept.

Elections are usually fought on domestic issues, even in a country so engaged in the world. Domestically, the sense of losing control permeates many parts of the electorate.

Immigration has become a huge and emotional issue. For many Americans, whatever they think of immigration per se, a widespread sense exists that the country has lost control of its borders. There are so many illegal immigrants in the United States that a compromise immigration bill foundered in Congress, destroyed by critics who wanted massive deportations and even tighter border measures.

Immigration opponents play on the loss of jobs, which is in turn linked by opponents to the country's massive and chronic trade deficit. Americans are told that they are the world's best at everything. Yet that assertion doesn't jibe with the trade deficit. The answer to this conundrum must be, in the minds of many Americans: If we are the best and yet we run this kind of deficit, someone else must be to blame. The culprits are therefore: trade agreements that need revision, unfair trading practices and currency manipulation by others. To which the remedies on offer, from both parties, are forms of protectionism and assertive trade policies that will give Americans back control over trade.

Americans' vulnerability is deepened by how they have run their own country in the past decade. They have compiled deficits on trade, current account and the national budget. States, constitutionally impeded from running deficits, are scrambling to keep their budgets balanced. Americans have become significantly indebted to the rest of the world, a reversal to the historical pattern whereby the dominant power of an age runs a surplus with its colonies and weaker countries. If they peer down the road, Americans see enormous unfunded Social Security and public health entitlements. And they see around them, or at least some of them do, social debts: to the poor and the uninsured. They see a dollar that is losing relative value, a natural outgrowth of the trade deficit but nonetheless a symbol of a less omnipotent currency.

They are carrying very high personal indebtedness. Their financial institutions, as the subprime mortgage crisis revealed, got caught up in the "irrational exuberance" of debt. They launched a war that cost hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars. Fighting a war, Americans also cut taxes on themselves. The chickens of such folly have come home to roost, loudly and persistently.

Being in debt at home, and in debt abroad, contributes to this sense of not being in control. So, too, does being so heavily dependent on foreign oil, especially when suppliers include such countries as Venezuela, that is anti-American, and Saudi Arabia that Americans do not trust. Looking around the world provides cold comfort for Americans about which countries control large stocks of oil: Arab states, Iran, Russia, Nigeria. At home, all presidential candidates pledge to make their country far less dependent on foreign oil, but no credible plan to do so in the lifetime of any adult American can be crafted.

HOPE AND RE-ENGAGEMENT

None of the Republican candidates, when they were still competing, called for "more of the same," a devastating indictment of the Bush administration from the President's own party. It's one thing to put distance between yourself and an incumbent, since elections are about the future. It's another rarely to mention his name.

Barack Obama's remarkable appeal is based on the hope that he can, through the charisma of his personality, the force of his rhetoric, and the novelty of his resumé, cut through the gridlock in Washington, loosen the grip of special interests, make government "work again," and restore faith and trust.

Mr. Obama articulates the hope that Americans can take back control of their destiny by being more respected abroad and more unified at home, to shrink social deficits, transcend the divisions of race, join the struggle against climate change, and use government again as a way of solving problems rather than consider the institution as the country's biggest problem.

The good news for America, and for those who admire much about the American spirit, is that so many people are engaged in their politics now. Without understanding perhaps the difficult tradeoffs that lie ahead, many of our neighbours are excited by their politics, deeply desirous of changing course, wiser for the errors and failures of the Bush presidency, still believing in their country and its destiny as a force for good in the world.