News

The three federal by-elections called last week for Sept. 8 are variously being painted as an early indication of Stéphane Dion's success in selling his carbon tax, a test of the all parties' current fortunes, and a potential factor in whether a general election is called later this fall. In fact, the votes in the Quebec ridings of Westmount and Saint-Lambert and the Ontario constituency of Guelph should be viewed as none of the above. As with most by-elections, they will tell us little other than which individuals will fill vacant seats in the House of Commons.

To begin with, it is fallacy to attempt to read broader trends into such a tiny sample size. If the Liberals win Montreal's Westmount riding next month, it will not mean that their fortunes have been revived in Quebec - only that they have held on to one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. But beyond that, a confluence of factors will often make a by-election an inaccurate representation of how even a specific riding would vote in a general election.

While national campaigns focus primarily on each party's leader and platform, a strong (or weak) local candidate is much more likely to tip the balance in a by-election. Voters are more inclined to register protest votes for opposition parties, knowing that there is no chance of changing government. And voter turnout is usually very low.

Partly because of the difficulty in getting those voters to the polls, each party's on-the-ground organization matters a great deal more than it normally would. And the strength of that organization tends to be skewed by parties flooding the

ridings with volunteers from the surrounding area, and political

staffers spending their weekends helping out.

Voters in Westmount, Saint-Lambert and Guelph should take a strong interest in next month's votes to ensure strong parliamentary representation. But the rest of the country should wait for the main event.