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Globe Ottawa bureau chief Brian Laghi and several other Globe reporters write today in their article Harper plays down speculation he would like to spark federal vote :

Stephen Harper dampened speculation yesterday that he is looking for a way to provoke a federal election campaign after the Parti Québécois' stunning losses in the Quebec vote.

Mr. Harper, whose Conservative Party has seen encouraging poll numbers of late, said yesterday that the results of Monday's election are good for Canada, but that his government still has much to do.

"I know everybody sees election opportunities in this but the public didn't elect me to sit around looking for election opportunities," he said.

"We're getting things done. We've got a lot of stuff before Parliament that still has to get passed and that's the first job of this government, to get things passed."

Still, the Prime Minister did not close the door on a possible vote.

So will the Prime Minister pull the plug and send Canadians to the polls this spring?

Will he win his long-sought majority if he does?

How do the results of the Quebec election really help the federal Conservatives?

Mr. Laghi was our guest earlier today to answer those and other questions on this week's instalment of The Hill_Live, our weekly discussion on federal politics.

Your questions and Mr. Laghi's answers appear at the bottom of this page.

Mr. Laghi began his journalistic career 25 years ago as a reporter for a small daily newspaper in Fort McMurray, Alta, and also worked as a reporter in Saskatoon, Sask., before moving to The Edmonton Journal, where he covered politics and served as that paper's Legislative buerau chief.

He moved to The Globe and Mail in 1995, covering Alberta and the Arctic for the paper until 1998, when he moved to Ottawa.

Mr. Laghi spent much of the next six years covering the conservative movement in Canada and the merger of the Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance. He became The Globe's bureau chief in Ottawa in October, 2004.

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Jim Sheppard, Executive Editor, globeandmail.com: Welcome, Brian, and thanks for joining us today on The Hill_Live.

You wrote in today's Globe that Mr. Harper yesterday played down the idea of a spring election despite the perceived shift to the right that occurred Monday in the Quebec election. But we also hear that there's a lot of pressure on him within the party to go to the polls sooner rather than later.

What's the perceived advantage for Harper and the Conservatives in going this spring? What's the possible disadvantage?

Brian Laghi, Ottawa Bureau Chief: Hi, Jim. It's great to be here.

I think that there are many factors that Mr. Harper has to consider before trying to provoke his own defeat or even before calling an election by himself.

But there are two key advantages, it seems to me, to pulling the pin this spring.

First, the Quebec election suggets that the coalition that votes for the Bloc Québécois may be coming unglued. Mr. Dumont's ability to attract right-of-centre voters who also see themselves as sovereigntists demonstrates that a chunk of BQ voters can also be sheared off by the federal Conservatives — and that could mean more seats for the Tories in Quebec.

Second, it appears that Ontario voters may have cottoned to Mr. Harper's budget of last week, which has been characterized as balanced and moderate. If the polls are to be believed, then suburban voters in Ontario, who have in the past expressed concern that the Tories are extreme, may be coming around.

The Conservatives need seats in Ontario and Quebec to fashion their majority, and the polls suggest the time may be ripe to take a chance.

On the downside, a spring vote could backfire on Mr. Harper if it looks like the only reason he wants one is to win a majority. I think that's why he's taken pains over the past few weeks to tell Canadians that he wants to govern and that may be at the bottom of his comments to the media yesterday that he isn't looking for opportunities to call an election.

There could be trouble for Mr. Harper if the public concludes that the only real reason for the election is so Mr. Harper can cobble together a majority.

It leads to the next question about hidden agendas. For example, some voters might ask whether Mr. Harper is seeking a majority to do all the scary things he hasn't told them about.

Miles Lunn, Toronto: Unless Harper falls on a non-confidence vote, wouldn't calling an early election run the risk of backfiring? Some people might see this as arrogant, especially considering the fact most Canadians don't want another election. David Peterson tried this in 1990 when way ahead in the polls and it resulted in his stunning loss.

Brian Laghi: I think you have a point. One of Mr. Harper's great strengths is his adroitness as a strategist. But it can also be seen as a weakness.

Given that Mr. Harper is already viewed by some people as a touch on the Machiavellian side, pulling the pin right now might cement the notion that the only reason he's called an election is for political gain and little else.

Despite the cynicism in our system, voters still believe their leaders should be in it to promote a program or a series of policies and not simply for power's sake.

Moreover, a lot of Canadians probably think this government is doing an okay job. After all, the budget has passed and separatism seems to be on the decline. So they might ask how can you justify an election when everything is going relatively well.

Ranald Walton, Hamilton, Ont.: Sir, it would appear that the Conservatives have rebuilt the last piece of the Mulroney majorities with their rising fortunes in Quebec. I also think the problems of the opposition Liberals and BQs are profound and, if anything, will grow with time.

So why would the Conservatives call an election now? Would it not make more sense for the current government to govern as if it had a majority (i.e., not take any nonsense) and bide its time until the opposition walks the plank?

Brian Laghi: Again, a point well-taken. Given the opposition's difficulties, it might be wise for Mr. Harper to start pushing the harder edges of his agenda in the knowledge that the opposition won't defeat him.

Could it be time, for example, to press ahead with efforts to dismantle the Canadian Wheat Board?

Second, as I said before, Mr. Harper is sometimes seen as a tad on the opportunistic side. Why not continue to govern and demonstrate that, despite the great opportunity afforded you to win a majority, you have relented in favour of governing with integrity?

I think it's harder to say how Stéphane Dion will perform in the future. It's tough to see things getting much worse for the Liberals and a summer out of the Ottawa hothouse might give him an opportunity to improve his English, among other things.

Jodey D., Ottawa: I am a little surprised at how much the media speculates on the possibility of a spring election.

Last year, the Conservatives introduced Bill C-16 "An Act to Amend the Canada Elections Act," which established fixed election dates. Early elections can happen only if the government loses the confidence of the House. I know the bill has yet to come into effect, but I would think everyone would scream hypocrisy quite loudly if Harper tried to drop the writ before the bill passed.

It also seems to me that none of the opposition parties want an election as it would likely not be a good election for any of them.

Do you agree with this analysis? If so, why do you think everyone is speculating on an election?

Brian Laghi: Right again. The bill does indeed call for fixed election dates and that makes it more problematic for the PM to walk over to the Governor-General's residence and call for the dissolution of Parliament.

I'm convinced that Michaëlle Jean would accede to his request, to avoid a constitutional crisis. But, as you pont out, the opposition would scream hypocrisy.

If Mr. Harper wants an election now, he has to hope he gets taken down by the opposition — but they don't appear terribly anxious to do so.

Harminder Dhillon: How fair is it for Harper and ilk to read Monday's vote for the ADQ as a vote against separation or a vote for a right-wing tilt?

No doubt, to me, the ADQ rode the anger against "unreasonable accommodation." But labelling it as right-wing or left-wing is a mistake. Had the ADQ campaigned on its two-tier health care system plank, or anti-immigration, anti-abortion, pro-Iraq war etc. and won these votes, it would have been reasonable to call it a shift to the right. "Reasonable accommodation" is a one-trick pony and may not provide sustainable vote support to Tories.

It seems Harper is reading what he wants to read, not necessarily what the voters said.

Brian Laghi: I think you are correct in the sense that a large portion of the ADQ increase was due to a protest vote. André Pratte mentioned this in his discussion yesterday on globe and mail.com André Pratte on the Quebec election

I also think, however, that Quebeckers don't see solutions to the province's problems in either Jean Charest's Liberals or André Boisclair's PQ.

Prominent individuals like former premier Lucien Bouchard have said that Quebec has to get its debt in order and focus on issues like education and research. These are not exclusively conservative notions, of course, but they do tend to that side of the spectrum and they are issues that have received only mild focus.

Second, I think Mr. Dumont has focussed his pitch on members of the middle-class and on suburbanites living outside of the big cities in the same way that Mr. Harper has.

Richard Keefer, Omemee, Ont.: With climate change looming in the background as an issue, and with the Republican-North and industry-friendly perception of the Conservatives, how do you think a warm spring that brings the promise of a smothering summer will tilt voters? . . . [also, I think] Dion has been caught up in poli-sci calculus that has seemed to exclude bold initiatives that would count as real leadership . . . What if — like a political cat on a hot tin roof — he sets the textbooks aside? Can he turn it around?

Brian Laghi: That's a good question. It seems to me that climate change became a top-of-mind concern for Canadians sometime last December/January when we found that the unseasonably warm weather in Ontario and some other parts of the country meant we couldn't take our kids out to the outdoor hockey rinks or to the ski hills (or, in the case of Ottawa, skating on the Rideau Canal).

Climate change, like health care, will probably ebb and flow as an issue, but it will hit the heights again if, for example, there is a crop failure in Western Canada or if brownouts occur in Ontario because of over-use of air conditioning. Climate change is typically an issue for parties that intervene in economies and in society, and Conservatives tend not to be of this ilk. So global warming is not an issue the Tories should feel comfrtable campaigning on.

As for Mr. Dion, he may need the summer to get his sea legs and to practice his English. The good thing is that expectations for Mr. Dion are rather low, so it may not be too difficult for him to come back after the holidays and excede those expectations.

That is, provided there's no election.

D.A. Pratt: Does not the showing of the ADQ in the Quebec election indicate that the real movement in votes is away from politicians who are pursuing their own agenda over the needs of the people as a whole?

Brian Laghi: I think you have a point in the sense that politicians are trying to appeal to people where they live.

Mr. Harper probably started that movement in Canada with tangible tax breaks that are targetted at the lower-middle and middle class. They include things like $100 a month for daycare and other items like help for apprentices.

In Australia, where a lot of these ideas were lifted from, this demographic is known as "the battlers."

I agree that there's a reconnection taking place.

By the way, that's probably why Mr. Harper has to be careful about engineering his own defeat. It might look like he's putting his own agenda ahead of the needs of the people who elect him.

Albin Forone, Toronto: To the extent that Mr. Harper is presently successful, it seems to be because he has been successfully ignoring most of what he and his traditional core constituency "stand for."

However, if Quebec and Ontario's GTA tip the scales for him, won't the functional core of the Conservative Party have shifted well to the left of his Western base?

Brian Laghi: To your first comment, I agree. Mr. Harper's decision to fix the fiscal imbalance by funnelling more money to the provinces ($700 million for Quebec) and his move to recognize Quebec as a "nation" are examples of offending the base of Conservative support in the West and those small-c conservatives who may be angry about the lack of fiscal rectitude.

But because Mr. Harper comes from Alberta, it may well be that voters in that province trust him more on such issues than they would a Conservative leader from, say, Quebec. (Brian Mulroney comes to mind).

Secondly, while I think that Mr. Harper will pay more attention to Quebec and the GTA if those two parts of the county tip the scales, I don't think he will deviate from the conservative notions that guide him.

There are still a lot of conservatives in these parts of the country and they could make up a significant portion of his majority. But they're still conservatives and Mr. Harper is pretty good at finding them.

Jim Sheppard, Executive Editor, globeandmail.com: Brian, thanks again for joining us today. I'm sure our readers appreciated your insight and analysis. Any last thoughts?

Brian Laghi, Ottawa Bureau Chief: Thanks for having me, Jim, and thanks to the readers.

I guess my final thoughts are that Mr. Harper's recent popularity is just that — recent. The budget bounce he received may be ephemeral and the Quebec results still have to be parsed.

For these reasons, a spring campaign may be a little risky, but the prime minister may be calculating that he can catch Stéphane Dion flat-footed and actually gain popularity during the campaign. After all, Mr. Harper is not running against himself, but against the guys on the other side of the House.

By the same token, Mr. Harper might want to use the summer to solidify his gains. A key question is whether Canadians believe they have seen the real Stephen Harper, or whether they need to get to know him a little better.

Jim Sheppard, Executive Editor, globeandmail.com: To our readers: Thanks for joining us today. We're sorry we could not get to all your questions in the hour alloted.