News

The Liberals suffered a bitter loss to the NDP in the federal by-election Monday in its long-held bastion of Outremont.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives took a riding deep in the heart of Bloc Québécois territory.

But are these signs of long-term trends?

Will Stéphane Dion's leadership come under attack within the Liberal party?

Will the results make Mr. Harper more likely to try to force a spring — or even a fall — election?

Is the NDP finally a force in Quebec?

Is the Bloc about to be outflanked by the Conservatives among nationalist voters?

Or, as some pundits argue, can you extrapolate anything at all from by-elections results which, historically, are poor indicators of what will happen in subsequent general elections.

Mr. Dion today said Quebec voters wanted to send a message to Mr. Harper's government that they want the mission in Afghanistan to end quickly. That's why, he said, they voted for the NDP in Outremont.

What do you think? What questions would you like answered?

Globe senior political writer Jane Taber is online now to offer her analysis and to answer your questions.

Your questions and Ms. Taber's answers will appear at the bottom of this page when the discussion begins.

Ms. Taber is also the co-host of CTV's "Question Period" and has covered Parliament Hill since 1986.

She started her career at The Ottawa Citizen and later became the host of a weekly political affairs program on WTN, "Jane Taber's Ottawa." She has also covered the Hill for The National Post.

Editor's Note: globeandmail.com editors will read and allow or reject each question/comment. Comments/questions may be edited for length or clarity. HTML is not allowed. We will not publish questions/comments that include personal attacks on participants in these discussions, that make false or unsubstantiated allegations, that purport to quote people or reports where the purported quote or fact cannot be easily verified, or questions/comments that include vulgar language or libellous statements. Preference will be given to readers who submit questions/comments using their full name and home town, rather than a pseudonym.

Brodie Fenlon, globeandmail.com: Thank you for joining us Ms. Taber, and thanks to our readers for all the questions. We've had so many, in fact, that I'd like to go straight to them.

Shawn Bull from Canada writes: Were the Quebec by-election results more of a: 1.) Sign that Dion is not the right leader for the Liberals, 2.) A mark against the Liberal party themselves, or 3.) A positive mark towards the NDP and Conservatives in regards to Quebec relations?

Jane Taber: Good question Shawn! I think the results in Quebec are a reflection of the fact that the Liberal policies in Quebec are not what Quebeckers want. So that would be a mark against the Liberal Party. I also think that we are missing the Conservative story here - that the Bloc vote bled to the Tories. The Bloc vote also went to the NDP in Outremont.

Ron White from Calgary writes: Ms. Taber - I am thinking that these by-elections are 'much ado about nothing'. If they were in rural prairie ridings or in the Maritimes they would have been pretty much ignored, but because they were in PQ they seemed to be all the rage. A message was not sent to the current government by voting NDP and not Liberal (how silly is that conclusion?); the Bloc is not in peril and the Conservatives are not ripe for a majority in an election many seem to have set for November. Question: Have the media nothing better to do than focus on this?

Jane Taber: Mr. White. I think you're totally wrong. I think the Quebec by-elections were fascinating. They provided a snapshot as to how the parties are doing, how the parties can mount an election, how well organized they are and how well the parties can communicate. I think there is a lot you can get from the by-elections. As for a Tory majority, many people I am speaking to (and these are not just Tories!) are saying that the Harper Conservatives could be poised to win 25 seats in Quebec. That would certainly propel the Tories toward a majority government. The Bloc vote in the by-elections went, primarily, to the Tories, who were aided by the ADQ.

David Smith from Toronto: Hello Ms Taber. In recent history, Quebec nationalists have been the key to both the Diefenbacker and Mulroney Tory majorities in that Maurice Duplessis and the Union National supported Dief in the polls, and Mulroney recruited a number of Quebec nationalists who later became the core of the Bloc. Do you think that Mario Dumont and his party might attempt to fill such a role for Mr. Harper? Or maybe even Jean Charest?

Jane Taber: Mr. Smith. I can only say that the ADQ did help out the Tories in the by-elections. And, of course, the Tory MPs elected from Quebec in the 2006 general election came from strong ADQ areas. I expect the ADQ will help the Harper Tories in the upcoming federal election.

Brodie Fenlon, globeandmail.com: We had several similar questions on Mr. Dion's future as Liberal Leader. I've grouped some of them together (below). Feel free to give a single answer if you prefer:

Ranald Walton from Hamilton writes: Ms Taber: Do you think there is a possibility that the Liberal Party of Canada will have another leadership selection before the next election? I would think some of the career politicians in the LPC caucus are very concerned about their chances given the blowout in Outremont (not to mention the loss of deposits in the other two ridings!) ...

Dennis Petruk from Canada writes: Jane, do you think Dion will survive this obvious catastrophe for the Liberal Party? After all, it was his hand-picked candidate that failed miserably. Do you think the Conservatives have replaced the Liberals as the Federalist option in Quebec? Is Harper on the cusp of a majority government?

Lloyd Atkinson from Winnipeg writes: Is there any way the Liberals can make a leadership change before the next election? Is it written in stone that they all have to go over the cliff together at the next election before everyone agrees the last leadership convention was a train wreck? Have you seen any sign that Dion may voluntarily step down for the good of the party?

Scott Martin from Ottawa writes: I don't think there's any denying that the Liberal's loss of Outremont, one of their safest seats, is anything less than a serious blow to Stephane Dion ... Do you think that we will see Stephane Dion as the Liberal leader during the next federal election whenever that may be?

Jane Taber: Gentleman: You've all asked questions about Liberal leader Stephane Dion's future and whether he will be replaced before the next election. This is a very hot topic in the corridors of official Ottawa! I don't think he will. I don't think that a leader loses his job based on by-election losses. There is also no real mechanism to replace a leader in this way. I think that Mr. Dion will be the Liberal leader in the next election and his future as leader will depend on how well he does in the next election.

S.G. from Montreal writes: Ms. Taber, I've enjoyed your political reporting for several years. With the presence, at last, of an actual MP from Quebec, do you believe that the NDP has the means to rapidly build a greater infrastructure in this province? The implication here is, can they woo enough 'soft-Liberal' voters, volunteers, and dissatisfied Bloc voters by crafting a message that appeals to a broader base than the protest vote, using a variation of Mr. Harper's 'nation within a united nation' strategy (e.g., 'strong Quebec identity within a strong Canada' or something like that)? And western Dippers might be easier to convince of something like this than western Tories, I think.

Jane Taber: Hi S. G. You raise a good point. There is a view here that Jack Layton and his party should try to topple the government (with the help of the other opposition parties, of course) in next month's Throne Speech. The belief is that he should strike in Quebec while he and his new MP, Thomas Mulcair, are hot. Success breeds success and Mr. Mulcair can use his network to keep trying to improve on this small foothold for the NDP in Quebec. The win in Outremont is very significant for Mr. Layton - this is only the second time that the NDP has elected a Quebec MP and Mr. Mulcair is truly a star candidate. Mr. Layton wooed him and spent a lot of his political capital promoting Mr. Mulcair.

James Bond from London writes: Jane, it seems that the federal Liberals are associated with Pierre Elliott Trudeau's behaviour toward Quebec during the time of patriation and Meech. Do you think, in order for the Liberals to regain the confidence of Francophone Quebec, that they need to support Meech or some future form of Meech?

Jane Taber: Mr. Bond from London! I think that the Liberals believe they have to have a very serious look at their policies vis a vis Quebec. They are not catching on in the province and I know that over the next few days and weeks, probably even months, Stephane Dion and his people will be taking a long and hard look at what their policies are saying to Quebeckers. They need a new way of positioning Mr. Dion in that province.

John Pringle from Victoria writes: Jane, how will the Liberal Party of Canada ever raise enough funds for either another leadership convention or to fight a federal election. It seems to me that ever since Jean Chrétien revised the party funding rules ... they cannot trade influence for donations. Both the NDP and the Conservatives will donate personal funds out of commitment. Is this the beginning of the end for the Liberals?

Jane Taber: Mr. Pringle: You're right! The Liberals are having tremendous difficulty raising money. The party, which was good at getting big cheques from big business, is now trying to revamp the way in which it raises funds but this, obviously, will take some time. Remember, the party president at the time, Stephen LeDrew, was against the change in the fundraising laws. Mr. Harper's government has made it even more difficult. But I don't think this is the beginning of the end for the party.

Harvey Mushman from Cambridge writes: Jane...thank you for taking the time to join us today. We all get the public 'spin' of the Liberal party 'heavy hitters' - oh, I just made an oxy-moron - with respect to these by-election results and in particular the Outremont debacle. But how have Monday's results affected those LPC workers 'in the trenches?' With reports of disorganization, poor decisions, lack of financing and infighting...how does this bode for the Liberals if a general election were called any time soon?

Jane Taber: Mr. Mushman: The view from here is that the by-election results do not bode well for the Liberals in a general election. If an election were to be held tomorrow the Liberals, given their policies in Quebec and organization from Ottawa, would not do well. However, a Liberal official told me yesterday that Mr. Dion has "internalized" the losses in Quebec and is taking them very seriously. He is keen to have a post-mortem and also a look at what to do about Liberal policies in Quebec because right now Quebeckers are not buying what the Liberals have to sell.

Harry from Waterloo writes: I was struck by the Rushmore-like stoniness of the faces of failed leadership candidates behind Mr. Dion as he acknowledged the defeat in Outrement. The performance of the whole party has been something of a mystery. Dion has confused me by maintaining a virtually invisible profile in English-speaking Canada since being elected leader and I wonder if he has been more active and visible in Quebec over that same time. Is there a strategy in the way the liberals are behaving, or are they paralyzed by the realization that they've picked someone who cannot attract public support in either official language?

Jane Taber: Harry: You're very observant! In fact, one of the staffers, who volunteered in Outremont on Monday, mentioned the same thing to me. He noted that Gerard Kennedy, in particular, had a very serious expression on his face. I don't think the Liberals are paralyzed by their choice of leader. Mr. Dion is new and his officials say he is working hard. He spent the summer traveling around the country and he was in the Outremont riding about seven times during the campaign. Liberals will tell you that Jean Chrétien, who ended up winning three majority governments, had a rough first year as opposition leader and that our current Prime Minister stumbled a bit, too. But I don't want to be put in the position of defending Mr. Dion and his strategy. I am just reporting what others have said to me about his presence.

Tim Segulin from Dartmouth, NS writes: Hi Jane. Is it not fair to say that in both cases voters are more likely to have chosen candidates who were already well-known from other political roles rather than the parties they currently represent? If so, is it not a bit dishonest for Harper to claim Roberval as approval for his government, or for Layton to claim Outremont is the beginning of a major upturn in NDP fortunes in Quebec? Layton also claims his 'immediate withdrawal from Afghanistan' policy was a major factor in the NDP win. It would seem a pity for an otherwise principled party like the NDP to exploit this war as a device to win Quebec votes, if that was indeed what they did. IMHO their Afghanistan policy makes no other sense.

Jane Taber: Mr. Segulin: It's interesting that you mention the issue of the war in Afghanistan. I think that the opposition parties felt that troop withdrawal and the mission would be a defining issue in the by-elections. It turned out not to be. However, I think that the Tories can claim a big victory in Roberval and also in Saint Hyacinthe. Tories are telling me - and I've got to check this out - that they won 15,000 more votes than in the 2006 federal election. They are really improving; Quebeckers are listening to what they have to say.

Michael Platonov from Birmingham, Alabama writes: Ms. Taber, reports of Liberal infighting are rampant, but how credible are they given that they stem from the usual anonymous sources or online blogs? P.S. I miss Question Period down here!

Jane Taber: Mr. Platonov: Glad to see that you're a QP watcher!! You can get it on the Internet. Anyway, Liberal infighting - the sources are anonymous because of fears of retribution. But I can tell you these sources are real, live, breathing people. I can't vouch for the blogs!

Doug McLachlan from Edmonton writes: Allegations of media bias and slant seem to accompany every political story but I am struck by how the Outremont win for the NDP is being reported so unswervingly from the perspective of its impact on the Liberals and Dion. At one point the Globe's own headline gave the impression that it was the Conservatives that had ousted the Liberals from their long-time stronghold. Given that part of Jack Layton's appeal when he won the NDP leadership was his supposed ability to help the party make inroads into Quebec, for which Monday's result was the most dramatic example, I'm wondering how you feel he can best capitalize on this success both within Quebec and beyond?

Jane Taber: Mr. McLachlan: As I mentioned before there is a view that the NDP needs to work quickly in Quebec and try to build on their success in Outremont. Their new MP, Mr. Mulcair, is personally popular and he could be used to fan out across the province and try to build a network and an organization. How quickly Mr. Layton acts and how confident he feels with this win, will become apparent very quickly. Indeed, we'll see what happens in a few weeks with the Throne Speech. This will be the first opportunity the opposition has to try to topple the minority Conservative government. It will be fascinating to see how the parties work their way through all of this.

Brodie Fenlon, globeandmail.com: Thank you again, Ms. Taber. A great discussion today and plenty of thoughtful questions. Sorry we couldn't get to all of them. Any final thoughts?

Jane Taber: Thanks Brodie: I really enjoyed the discussion today. The by-elections and all the fall-out from them are just a little taste of what is in store for us this fall. It's going to be thrilling to watch what comes from the Throne Speech and Mr. Harper's first confidence test. Could we be into a federal election next month? Now, that's a topic for another day!

Thanks, Jane