The familiar cycle of retaliation and escalation in the Middle East threatens to spiral out of control.
With the capture of two Israeli soldier by members of Hezbollah, and Israel's response — bombing multiple targets in Lebanon — the prospects for a wider conflagration has grown.
Janice Gross Stein, who was live on-line earlier Monday took your questions on the future of the Middle East.
Janice Gross Stein is a professor of Conflict Management in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto and is the Director of the
Munk Centre for International Studies
. She is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada and currently serves as Vice-Chair of the Advisory Board to the Minister of Defence and as a member of the Board of CARE Canada. Janice Stein was the Massey Lecturer in 2001. She has recently been appointed a Trudeau Fellow and was awarded the Molson Prize by the Canada Council for an outstanding contribution by a social scientist to public debate.
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Michael Snider, globeandmail.com: hello Janice, thanks very much for being with us today. you have a busy hour ahead -- we've received nearly 100 questions so far. Readers, thanks for joining in. Obviously, Janice will not be able to answer the majority of your questions due to volume, but we're going to get to as many as we can. Janice, you just retuned from the Middle East last week. Can you give us a sense of the mood in the region? Is it any different from previous flare-ups?
Janice Gross Stein: In both Ramallah and Jerusalem, there was frustration— at times almost despair — that they found themselves yet again locked into an escalating conflict that they did not want and could not control. In Ramallah, people were already tense as sanctions bit deeper into people's lives and many dreaded the prospect of another round of violence. Surprisingly, there was frustration at the role that the "militants" had played — in precipitating the crisis.
In Jerusalem, there was shock and disappointment that the attacks had crossed the border within the green line. Many worried that the support fror further withdrawals would be undermined if these attacks went unanswered.
In both cities, the conflict seemed almost like a storm that blew out of the sand, unexpected, unpredictable, gritty, and damaging.
Dennis Choptiany from Markham writes: Israel has repeatedly mentioned Syria and Iran in their recent statements (eg. the two soldiers captured by Hezbollah may have been taken to Iran). What is the likelihood that those two countries will be attacked by Israel? Could this current situation be used to bomb Iran's nuclear development installations — even without a provocation?
Janice Gross Stein: Hi Dennis. While it is difficult to rule anything out in an escalating conflict, I don't think that an attack by Israel against Iran is likely — unless there is an explicit act by Iran first. Israel's leaders are certainly exercised that it is Iranian missiles that are being used to bombard its cities in the north, but there would have to be an act directly traceable to Iran. So: I don't think that, without a provocation, Israel will attack Iran's nuclear installations.
Ra Ku from Toronto writes: Dear Prof. Stein, I understand that I don't understand most of what is going on in Middle East: it is just so complicated and so steeped in history I know little about. But how can Israel ever justify dozens of civilians killed in Lebanon?
Janice Gross Stein: Hi Ra Ku. It is impossible to justify killing innocent civilians, and the deaths in Lebanon are heartbreaking. As you know, however, civilians are being killed on both sides of the border — in Haifa and in other northern towns in Israel. It is always innocent civilians who pay the price of war. The challenge is to find a political solution which allow all sides to climb down, take a breath, and see if they can negotiate their way out of this.
