jsheppard
Globe and Mail Update Published on Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2006 3:00PM EDT Last updated on Monday, Apr. 06, 2009 11:00PM EDT
Ken Dryden and Martha Hall Findlay are not considered by most experts to be among the front-runners in the Liberal leadership race.
But as Jane Taber, The Globe's senior political writer in Ottawa, reports in today's newspaper Front-runners woo Liberal lagards Dryden and Hall Findlay top the list of "good gets" — candidates who are being wooed by the race's leaders in case they drop out.
Among the reasons they would be good gets: Ms. Hall Findlay is seen as a fresh face. Mr. Dryden is known for his credibility and integrity. Both are personally untainted by the sponsorship scandal.
"There is no indication that Ms. Hall Findlay and Mr. Dryden will quit the race any time soon," Ms. Taber writes, "although the chatter among the leadership camps continues to be who will drop out before the vote in December in Montreal."
Ms. Taber was our guest earlier today to discuss her article, the Liberal leadership race, and other federal political topics on our regular weekly political discussion The Hill_Live. The questions and her answers appear at the bottom of this page.
Ms. Taber is also co-host of CTV's "Question Period" and has covered Parliament Hill since 1986. She started her career at The Ottawa Citizen and later became the host of a weekly political affairs program on WTN, "Jane Taber's Ottawa." She has also covered the Hill for The National Post.
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Jim Sheppard, Executive Editor, globeandmail.com: Welcome back, Jane. We always appreciate having you on-line for The Hill_Live. You wrote today that when former Chrétien cabinet minister Maurizio Bevilacqua became the first — and so far the only — candidate to step aside [to throw his support behind Bob Rae], many of his key organizers and caucus supporters went to other leadership camps. Does that mean a "get" at this stage of the campaign is more symbolic than real?
Jane Taber: Jim: Yes, that's exactly what I mean. The so-called "get" is obviously a positive for a candidate. It provides him or her with momentum. Bob Rae was practically beaming at the news conference in which Mr. Bevilacqua announced his intentions. That event, that news conference, was a positive event for Mr. Rae. It showed how his campaign was going forward. It also showed that Liberals can come together. Mr. Bevilacqua is viewed to be a right-wing Liberal. Mr. Rae, a former NDP premier, is considered to the left. Yet, the two are now working together. And it's really not that kind of campaign or race where candidates can really control their delegates. It's a long race and the chatter is that potential delegates are already deciding amongst themselves who to support after the first ballot. Of course, delegates will be tied to a candidate — unless they were elected as independents — on the first ballot. After that, they are free to go anywhere.
Harvey Mushman, Cambridge, Ont.: Jane, thanks for your time today. Do you not think this long, drawn-out leadership process, combined with multitude of "second- string" candidates has done more to hurt the Liberal "brand" than promote it? Public interest, fundraising and membership drives seem pathetic. Is "Joe Q Public" really paying attention anymore?
Jane Taber: Mr. Mushman: Thanks for your interest. You're right that it is a long, drawn-out process. I know that some Liberals are now questioning the length of the race and wondering if they haven't made a mistake in stringing it out for so long. Whether it is hurting the Liberal brand is a good question, too. Recent polls have not shown that it has. I am thinking of the SES Research poll by Nik Nanos, which came out last Friday. Mr. Nanos's poll shows the Conservatives dropping, especially in Quebec. However, the Liberals are not dropping. And yet the Liberals have no leader, appear to be all over the map on Middle East issues and gave a very poor showing in the House of Commons last spring. I think the public is not paying much attention right now. Perhaps, it will after Labour Day.
Steve Walker, Toronto: Jane: A few years ago, Liberal Carolyn Parrish disgraced herself with a public display of anti-Americanism. I later found that Carolyn's rant wasn't atypical of many Liberal MPs. Should Liberal candidates be asked if they hold any ill will towards our largest trading partner? Or would such a question place some candidates at odds with their constituents?
Jane Taber: Mr. Walker: There are Liberal MPs who don't like what the Bush administration is doing. They just voice their opinions in a different way than Ms. Parrish. And it's a fair, legitimate question to ask the candidates or MPs their view on the U.S. The new Green Party leader Elizabeth May provoked headlines over the weekend with her position that the Green Party would try to pull out of NAFTA. She also said quite openly that she has problems with the Bush administration.
Chas Cahill, Ottawa: Hello Jane. I have followed your great career ever since we worked in Ottawa media some years ago. I'm interested in your take on why Bob Rae is in this contest. Surely he's aware that his past sins in Ontario give him a "no-starter" status there? Or would all be forgiven? I would find it difficult to vote for any of these people were I a Liberal and a delegate in December. And I'm not sure that McKenna would save the day even if he were a last-minute entry. What is your take on what looks to be a very dull convention at this point? All the best to you, Charlie.
Jane Taber: Hi Charlie: I'm not so sure that Mr. Rae believes that his tenure as Ontario premier will devastate him. We hear rumblings within the party and from pundits that this is still a problem for him. But we won't see how true that is until we see the results of the delegate-selection process. Delegates to the November-December convention will be chosen in late September during the so-called "super weekend." I'll be very interested to see who "owns" Ontario. I think that will be very telling for Mr. Rae. And I disagree with your characterization that this is going to be a very dull convention. The dull convention was in 2003 when Paul Martin was basically acclaimed. There was a fairly dully convention in 1990 when Jean Chrétien won. This convention seems to be wide open. No one has a good idea of who is going to win and on what ballot. I'm really excited about it and really looking forward to it.
Take care. It was nice to hear from you!
Jim Sheppard, Executive Editor, globeandmail.com: Jane, this is an edited version of a question from Mark Knowles of Toronto: [Has Michael Ignatieff said whether he will] run again in the next election if he loses the leadership race? Seems to me that he only returned to Canada to become Prime Minister and if that doesn't work, then he'll go back to whatever he was doing before.
Jane Taber: Mr. Knowles: It's interesting that you've posed this question. I am working on that very story today for tomorrow's paper after Mr. Ignatieff suggested to the editorial board of The Toronto Star that he might not stick around in federal politics if he does not win the leadership. He was elected in 2006 in the Toronto riding of Etobicoke Lakeshore after Jean Augustine basically freed up her seat for him. Although he and his people canvassed hard and worked the riding, it is a safe Liberal seat.
David Gehring, Ottawa: Hi Jane, thanks for taking our questions. While I do not have a preferred choice among the leadership candidates yet, I always figured Dryden would be one of the strongest contenders in this race. He has solid credentials, national likeability and more federal experience than many of the other candidates (but not too much to link him to the Old Guard). So I am wondering why he is placed near the back of the pack and considered by many to be an early target to drop out and throw his support elsewhere. Is he too vanilla within the spectrum of the other candidates? Has he been lost in the mix?
Jane Taber: Hi Mr. Gehring: I've actually been assigned to write the profile of Ken Dryden (The Globe is writing profiles of all of the candidates. You may have seen the Michael Ignatieff piece by Michael Valpy last Saturday). You are right that Mr. Dryden has a national profile and has solid credentials. But I would argue that he is new to the federal scene and as a result does not have the organization needed to break through to the top tier. As well, although he is a wonderful man to speak to and is filled with enthusiasm and ideas, he is considered wooden, verbose and dull [as a public speaker]. He takes a long time to answer questions and articulate his thoughts. This is a problem for someone who wants to be a leader. As well, he does not speak French. A national leader needs to be able to speak both languages. This was something that Belinda Stronach faced and I think contributed in part to her decision not to seek the leadership.
Ranald Walton, Hamilton, Ont.: Ms Taber: Since the ability to gain power is the main criterion for becoming leader of the Liberal Party, which candidate do you think would have the most electoral success against the new government? Also with the stronger candidates declining to run (McKenna, Manley, Tobin) would you agree with me that this is the weakest slate of leadership hopefuls the Liberal party has fielded in my lifetime (I was born in 1964)?
Jane Taber: Love your question Mr. Walton. It's one of those delicious conversations that we all have here on Parliament Hill. I don't agree that this is a weak slate. I think it's strong, diverse and really quite interesting. I think the fact that there are still 10 candidates in the race speaks to the fact that this is a truly open competition as opposed to previous races. The Liberals are asking themselves now who would be able to beat Stephen Harper. There is a view among some, (and you have to be careful who you are speaking to, what camp they belong to, and how good they are at spinning you) that Bob Rae, Michael Ignatieff and Stéphane Dion have the intellectual gravitas to hold their own against Stephen Harper. Mr. Harper is smart, quick on his feet, decisive and can deliver devastating blows in Question Period and during a potential leadership debate. As well, Mr. Rae and Mr. Ignatieff's French is very good.
Gary Wilson, Calgary: I've found it curious and surprising to see the environment wiped off the radar of current government policy. Where do environmental issues sit as a general priority in the Liberal leadership race and who, in your opinion, can be seen as leading the charge?
Jane Taber: Mr. Wilson: On the contrary, Michael Ignatieff just recently weighed in with his "polluter-pays" plan for the environment. And we've heard from other candidates. Of course, the strongest candidate on this issue would have to be Sté phane Dion, who served as environment minister in the Martin government.
Daniel Sturgis, Rabat, Morocco: Ms. Taber, thank you for fielding questions today. As a Liberal voter, my primary concern is that the two frontrunners — Rae and Ignatieff — are John Kerry-type candidates. Essentially, they may have the clout to win the fragmented Liberal leadership race, but they carry too much political baggage to stand a chance of beating Harper in the federal election. Which candidates do you see potentially merging their campaigns in order to provide a strong and viable alternative?
Jane Taber: Good question, Mr. Sturgis, and all the way from Rabat, too!!! Who goes where and to whom and when . . . these are all burning leadership questions. There is a view among some Liberals that Scott Brison, the very competent candidate from Nova Scotia would at some point throw his support behind Michael Ignatieff. The reasoning for this is fairly weak, however. Mr. Brison and Mr. Ignatieff shared the same view on the extension of the Afghanistan mission, supporting the government on that. There is also a view among some Liberals that there will be an Anybody-but-Ignatieff gang-up on the second ballot. It means that the second or third or fourth candidate on the first ballot could end up the winner as did Joe Clark in 1976. The expectation is that Mr. Ignatieff will win on the first ballot but it's anyone's guess what could happen come the second ballot.
David Ashton, Cloverdale, B.C.: Ms. Taber: GQ, Macleans, The Globe and Mail — Mr. Ignatieff seems to be in the spotlight in the media right now. Is this a case of the media taking sides (i.e., they are hoping that Iggy wins because he'll sell more copies than Dryden or Dion), the media going with the perceived frontrunner or just a crazy coincidence? Is all this media attention helping Ignatieff gain steam going into the final three months of this race or is he peaking too early like Paul Martin did in his much less-contested rise to the leadership of the Liberal Party?
Jane Taber: Mr. Ashton: The issue of the attention being paid to Mr. Ignatieff is a valid one. It's not a coincidence. Mr. Ignatieff is the perceived frontrunner and he is a new entity in Canadian politics. He has been out of the country for so long that Canadians simply don't know who he is. The excellent Michael Valpy piece in The Globe last Saturday was to inform readers as to who is this person who could potentially lead the Liberal Party and go on to become Prime Minister. And you have to admit that Mr. Ignatieff's background is fascinating. It was such a well-researched and fascinating read!!
Uncle Stan: Hi Jane. Thanks for taking my question. You say everyone in the party thinks Ken Dryden has so much credibility and integrity. I agree. Were these not major issues in the last election? Would the Liberal Party not be well-served to elect someone with so much credibility and integrity as leader? Not to mention, he's extremely popular among non-Liberals and extremely bright. I've been watching the race and he seems like the only guy taking aim at Harper! Why is no one paying attention to Ken Dryden?
Jane Taber: Uncle Stan: I think it is a frustration of the Dryden camp that more people are not paying attention to him. He has attracted an extremely loyal following. In fact, he had some fundraising issues earlier in the summer and had to lay off his paid organizers. However, he has a smart group of people around him now who are volunteering their time. That's the kind of loyalty he attracts. Again, the lack of French is a big problem for him. His inexperience in federal politics and in the Liberal Party is also a problem.
Raymond Frizzell, Pincourt, Que.: Hi. My favourite candidate is Gerald Kennedy, I like the fact that he is young, has accomplished quite a bit in his life, and has no ties to Martin or Chrétien. My question to you is: How well do you think he is doing in comparison of the other candidates who are running. Thank you.
Jane Taber: The million-dollar question, Mr. Frizzell, concerns how well Gerard Kennedy is doing. The perception, based on no real hard facts, is that he is among the top four contenders. And you're right. His appeal is his youthfulness and the fact that he has no ties to the Chretien/Martin era. I think he will do well at the convention and may surprise more than a few people.
Joe Palooka, Toronto: Hi Jane. With Maurizio Bevilacqua having joined the Bob Rae camp, might that signal a trend for the other minor candidates to back Rae? Might it also signal an Anybody But Ignatieff campaign? What are the chances of any of the lesser candidates supporting Ignatieff?
Jane Taber: Joe Palooka: There are a great many chances of other candidates going over to Mr. Ignatieff. In fact, I think it will happen and we will see before the convention some other candidates drop out of the race to support Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. Rae, Mr. Dion or Mr. Kennedy.
James R., Niagara Falls, Ont.: I enjoyed your last Q and A very much and I have a couple of doozy questions for you this time around as well. Our country claims that it takes care of all its citizens. But over the last decade or two, it seems that Canada is actually taking care only of those that can take care of themselves. [This happens] through the weakening of social programs, increased taxation, lessening of quality services, and overall ignorance of the Canadian poor. We have seen an increase of care only for those people who can "pay to play." In your opinion, which Liberal leadership candidate would be best-suited to represent the poor of Canada? Also, with every election comes the grandstanding that those seeking to be elected will repair and restore Canadian Medicare to acceptable levels. Yet, with each passing year, we see the door to privatization slowing opening more and more, waiting lists increasing in duration and in the number of people waiting. Recently, a report indicated that the only way Canada can maintain its current Medicare system is through the hiring of foreign doctors because we currently have a shortage of able doctors in university. Fixing our system doesn't appear to be that difficult. It isn't something that will happen overnight, but it seems that a healthy infusion of cash into our Medicare infrastructure would do the trick. Hiring more doctors. Making doctors wages more attractive. Upgrade our current facilities and building new facilities. The answer seems to obvious, but our politicians seem to enjoy using medicare as a method to increase votes rather than actually do anything that would require thought or effort. Why is this?
Jane Taber: James R.: Wow! What a question! The bottom line, though, is that the country is ready now for an intelligent debate about where our health-care system is going. For too long, politicians have been scared to even mention two-tier or public/private health care. However, I believe that is now changing. I think there is a feeling among Canadians that something more needs to happen. Throwing money at the provinces and the system is not the way to go. The Conservatives, I think, are reluctant to give the provinces more money although Mr. Harper has pledged to address the wait-times guarantee issue. It is one of his five priorities. How he is going to do this, without giving the provinces more money and, yet keeping them happy, is going to be a real challenge. We are expecting some answers to this in the fall.
Tim Trimper, Winnipeg: Jane, is there any possible way that Paul Martin changes his mind and takes another crack at the leadership, especially given the weak field?
Jane Taber: Mr. Trimper: NO way that Mr. Martin changes his mind. I can't imagine (or maybe I can) how the party would react if he tried to get back in. There would be an uprising. And I disagree with this notion that the field is weak. I think there are an interesting group of Liberals putting forward their ideas. I think it's a very exciting leadership race, especially since no one can predict the outcome.
Andrea D'Allesandro: Jane, I'm really enjoying this discussion thread. I have another question about Bob Rae. Everybody knows that Bob Rae's campaign is being run by the Chrétien team (John Rae and Eddie Goldenberg, among others) that started the Chrétien-Martin war. What are the implications for the Liberal party if this team gets back into power?
Jane Taber: Ms. D'Allesandro: The Rae team does seem to "Chrétien-heavy." And your question is a good one about what would happen if Mr. Rae becomes leader. I think that the Rae team has to work very hard at ensuring that the cliques and camps of the past are not allowed to re-develop. I think that it is in the interest of the Liberal Party to have new faces, new blood and as a result, new ideas. This will be a huge challenge for Mr. Rae and his supporters because the last thing that a new leader wants to have happen is to be fighting within and not aiming your guns at the government.
Jim Sheppard, Executive Editor, globeandmail.com: Jane, thanks very much for taking so much extra time today to talk to our readers on-line. Your answers provided valuable insight into the Liberal leadership race. Any last thoughts?
Jane Taber: Thanks, Jim. Once again, I enjoyed participating. I always find that Globe readers ask great questions and it's fun to respond to them!!!
Jim Sheppard, Executive Editor, globeandmail.com: To our readers: We're sorry we could not get to all of the many questions you submitted today in the hour alloted for this discussion. If you wish to comment on the discussion, on Ms. Taber's article or the Liberal leadership race, please submit them to our editors in the usual way.
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