John Ibbitson

Boomers and whites will soon be America's new minorities

The Latino birth rate is twice that of whites, which is why the United States is the only industrialized nation with a birth rate that keeps the population stable

John Ibbitson

John Ibbitson

This political fact matters beyond all others: The youngest of our readers will live to see the day when the majority of people in the United States are not white.

Ethnic minorities are now majorities among people under 20 in one out of six counties in the United States, according to an analysis of census data by Kenneth Johnson, of the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire.

Currently, 34 per cent of the U.S. population is non-white. But last year, 48 per cent of all newborns were non-white. The young white population has declined by 5.3 per cent since 2000, while the young non-white population has increased by 15.5 per cent.

“The change is due both to minority kids' gains and to declines in the number of white kids,” Mr. Johnson told USA Today. “This isn't about immigration any more.” Defining race and ethnicity, including the difference between the one and the other, is a dangerous game. Some Latinos - people of Central or South American ancestry - self-identify as white; others do not. Most people consider Latino and Hispanic synonymous terms, though Brazilian Latinos might beg to differ.

Nonetheless, according to census data, the non-Hispanic white population constitutes a mere 57 per cent of the U.S. population under 20, a bare majority. Hispanics make up 21 per cent, blacks 14 per cent.

The Latino birth rate is twice that of whites, which is why the United States is the only industrialized country with a birth rate that keeps the population stable. (All other developed nations are entering into population decline, except for what they bring in through immigration.) The rural population - overwhelmingly white - is declining, while the African-American, Latino and Asian populations are migrating from inner cities to suburbs, increasing the number of minority-majority counties.

In the near future, more minority babies will be born in a year than majority, at which point it will be simply a matter of time before whites become just another minority in the American melting pot.

The political implications are beyond profound. A generational struggle is under way in America between boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) and millennials (those born between 1982 and 2003 according to one definition, although the boundaries vary).

On all the major issues, the two generations clash. On health care, millennials favour a public health-care option; boomers are more inclined to prefer private insurance only.

Most millennials favour gay marriage and the elimination of the ban on gays in the military; boomers are more likely to resist both.

Millennials - with their large non-white cohort - favour liberal immigration policies; boomers are more suspicious of letting in foreigners.

Millennials are more likely than boomers to favour robust action to fight global warming.

The millennials will win all of these battles. Partly, that's because, while boomers split between social liberals and social conservatives, millennials are pretty much all socially liberal. (The liberal boomers outsmarted the conservative boomers by controlling the education curriculum, ensuring that the next generation would think just like them.) There are 17 million more millennials than boomers in the United States. They're the largest generation in U.S. history. Although in Canada they remain an apathetic lot, in the United States, millennials make up 17 per cent of the voting population: They constituted 18 per cent of the vote in the last election. Overwhelmingly, they voted for Barack Obama. He is their President and his agenda is their agenda.

The old white men in the Senate are fighting to keep the President and his young supporters at bay. Health-care reform is in danger of getting bogged down; a cap-and-trade system to fight global warming probably has only even odds of seeing the light of day. The same is true of immigration reform. And expanding gay rights will probably be a second-term Obama priority.

But he will likely get that second term. The Republican base of older whites is diminishing, while more millennials turn 18 every year.

Health-care reform will come. Cap and trade will come. Legal immigration will increase. Discrimination against gays will end. If not this year, then next; if not this term, then next.

Because on all the issues that matter, the millennials - multihued, socially concerned, and now politically engaged - have made up their mind.

As for the boomers, we've had our innings. It's time to get out of the way.

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