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You knew a federal election was in the wind, or at least that the Harper Conservatives were preparing for the possibility of one, when those full-page newspaper advertisements began.

Paid for by you, dear taxpayer, the ads began running in newspapers across Canada after Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Thursday speech in Cambridge on the economy.

The full-pagers were blatantly, even shamelessly, partisan. Although they contained the requisite Canada logo, they should have borne the Conservative one.

“Tax Cuts and Benefits for You.” Mushy prose praising the government's stimulus package. Misleading twaddle about 80 per cent of stimulus projects already being implemented. Self-congratulations about Canada's superior record relative to those of other countries, “due in no small part to the action taken by the Federal Government.”

The ads, as you would expect from a government facing an election, were mostly political. But that's what we've come to expect from the Harper Conservatives: party money for personal attack ads on television against the Leader of the Opposition; taxpayer money for self-congratulatory ads about the government.

So we knew something might be up before Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff bowed yesterday to one of his predecessors, Mackenzie King, and essentially said: An election this summer if necessary but not necessarily an election.

A game of chicken will now unfold before votes of confidence scheduled for Friday. Already the permanent opposition parties - the Bloc Québécois and the New Democrats - have signalled their desire for an election, as they always do.

More subtle, Mr. Ignatieff laid down conditions for the Conservatives to meet, failing which it would appear that what the overwhelming majority of Canadians do not want will happen: a summer election.

Mr. Ignatieff's conditions were reasonable, but hardly represented a chasm of difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives. If an election were fought on these differences, it would be a very boring contest. Given that summer elections are almost universally unwelcome, it's surprising so many Liberals seem to want one.

Polls have been mildly encouraging for the Liberals, although between elections, polls are not indicative of much of anything. Polls do get politicos slavering, however, and the prospect of possibly winning a minority government got a lot of Liberals giddy with enthusiasm for a vote.

Certainly, the Conservatives have collapsed in Quebec - a province they tried so hard to impress, woo and bribe. The Bloc would, once again, win the largest number of seats there, because so many Quebeckers have settled into the comfort zone of being semi-Canadians. But the Liberals might grab a bunch of seats from the vacuum created by the disappearing Conservatives.

In Ontario, the Liberals feel confident they will pick up seats. Add the anticipated Quebec and Ontario gains together, and the Liberals feel they can win more seats than the Conservatives. They might even squeeze the NDP if some New Democrats think that voting Liberal will better ensure the departure of Mr. Harper from 24 Sussex Dr.

The Conservatives, however, are not without assets, including a vice-grip on the West, and rural Ontario seats. Mr. Harper has already run three elections, so can be considered a seasoned campaigner, whereas Mr. Ignatieff has never been through the fires of a national campaign where small mistakes can blow up in a leader's face.

The Conservatives at least have a “plan” for dealing with the recession, for which the Liberals voted by supporting the last budget. The differences therefore between what the Liberals are demanding and what the Conservatives are doing is small. Apart from extending Employment Insurance temporarily, the Liberal platform is a fog.

It's not issues, therefore, that produced this Liberal brinksmanship, but rather the sense of political advantage today and an accompanying sense that perhaps the fall or next spring would not be as advantageous.

They anticipate the Harperites rolling out many more taxpayer-financed ads all summer. They know that without Parliament sitting, the media loses interest in the opposition. They fear the economy might display more “green shoots.” They don't want to give the Conservatives another budget to show off their wares.

So they drew a line in the sand with their demands. It's a line all right, but remember the line is in the sand, which means it can be quickly erased, depending on how much the Conservatives want to avoid an election.