Roughly a year ago, Prime Minister Stephen Harper wobbled on the political ropes, or so his opponents believed, retreating in Parliament and forced to resort to a prorogation to save his hide. Today, Mr. Harper runs a stable government that operates almost as if it were a majority.
Mr. Harper's poll standings, for what they count, have improved a notch. He controls his caucus with a customary iron fist. The recession, far from harming his government, proved to be a godsend, allowing him to live out every politician's dream, sprinkling billions of dollars across the country without serious criticism.
Best of all, Mr. Harper's principal political adversaries made him look even better. A politician can't count on the stupidity of adversaries, but when stupidity arrived in the form of a hollow Liberal threat to bring down the government, what could have been better luck? As Frank Sinatra once crooned, Mr. Harper had a very good year.
Once he survived the parliamentary crisis, Mr. Harper did two things that stabilized the government. First, he unveiled a huge stimulus program that, unlike his maladroit efforts in the fall of 2008, responded to the political requirement and economic need to inject public money into a tottering economy. Then, he reinforced discipline on himself and colleagues by handing out one song sheet – called the government's Economic Action Plan – and demanding that all Conservatives sing from it, often and always.
The message was reinforced with ads with blatantly political overtones, paid for by the taxpayers. Scarcely a week passed without Mr. Harper, or occasionally one of his ministers whom he allowed to speak, making one, two or three announcements of a spending project. When necessary, the Conservatives resorted to their advertising attack machine to frighten their opponents.
Nothing was to get in the way of the Action Plan message. Other subjects were banished from the government's agenda, or dealt with swiftly. Distressing files such as the Afghan detainee mess were blunted by partisan attacks, refusal to answer questions, and testimony that rebutted allegations. Ministers were told to put on hold other initiatives.
One file wouldn't go away, because it was an international one: climate change. This file the Prime Minister delegated to Environment Minister Jim Prentice, who essentially spent a year ragging the puck. Mr. Harper literally stayed away from the issue as much as possible, refusing to speak on the subject at home or at the United Nations or at the Copenhagen climate change conference.
Canada is the Bad Boy of the negotiations, and for good reason. But Mr. Harper doesn't care because within his coalition a whole lot of people don't believe the planet is warming, while others think sun spots are the cause, while still others want the least possible done. So the government's approach to climate change has been to tout targets that cannot be met, and tie everything to the U.S. position, knowing that it will weaken in Congress.
Climate change aside, little else diverted the government from its central economic message of spending to combat recession. Since the Liberals had voted for the 2009 budget, they could only chirp – until the foolhardy, empty threat to bring down the government. As for the NDP, fearing political losses, they conveniently switched from being against everything the government did to voting to sustain the government.
The result produced political stability that bids fair to endure well into 2010. The next budget will be a steady-as-she goes affair – more spending for a still-weakened economy – that the opposition might carp about but not enough to precipitate an election.
Moreover, Mr. Harper travelled a lot in the second half of 2009, including to China, which he had ignored, thereby shoring up a weak political flank. Next year, he will play host to the G8 and G20 summits, be seen at the Olympic Games, and escort the Queen around. It would be hard to squander those political opportunities for endless photo-ops and television visuals.
At some point, hard decisions will beckon. Spending will have to be curtailed and interest groups disappointed. None of that had to happen in 2009, which helped make it a very good political year of unexpected stability for Mr. Harper.
