David Li
Age: 48
Position: Pro
Best known as: Director of the Centre for China in the World Economy at Tsinghua University, member of the Central Bank of China’s monetary policy committee.
Fun fact: Displaced to the countryside by the cultural revolution, he came of age during the economic reforms of the 1980s, graduating among the first class from Tsinghua’s School of Economics and Management.
His arguments: There are two preconditions before “a country can claim that a significant period of time belongs to them.” The country must do well internally – socially, economically and politically. And “it must have some international appeal and have some influence in international affairs.” Dr. Li will argue that China is succeeding on both counts.
On China’s progress: China will “most likely” be able to continue its progress at home in the coming decades. “Why? Because the momentum is set.” China’s rulers, he said, are careful and pragmatic enough to know that some political changes are required to accompany the country’s impressive economic achievements. Meanwhile, the population has benefited enough from the economic transformation to have optimism for the future and be patient about political change.
Parallel growth: China’s emergence does not mean the West is headed into decline, nor does it preclude India from rising in parallel. It just means the others have to share the stage. “China’s claim to fame in the 21st century does not diminish other countries’ status or influence. We’re not eating other countries’ lunches.”
China’s smooth rise is not assured: “I’m saying it’s likely.” Much will depend on his own generation and those younger than he buying into the system. “Domestically, I worry about people being too impatient. I worry about young people being too narrowly nationalistic. When they’re too impatient, they’re not able to gradually follow the course of societal progress.”
– Mark MacKinnon
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Niall Ferguson
Age: 47
Position: Pro
Best known as: Professor of history and business at Harvard, senior research fellow at Oxford and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford. Author of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World.
Fun fact: He’s working on a biography of his debating opponent, Henry Kissinger.
On the debate: “Of course it's a great error to reveal these thing before the debate, but I tend to focus, of course, on the economic strengths that China currently is influenced by. I’m also going to talk about the Chinese political system and Chinese social strengths and cultural strengths.”
The other issues: “I also want to talk about, perhaps even more importantly, the weaknesses of the West and the kind of problems that are going to [impact] the United States and its allies in the coming decades. So it's really a two-pronged argument: one about China's strengths and the other about various problems in the West.”
It’s bigger than the economy: “Well, it's clearly not a self-sufficient argument, because economic power doesn’t necessarily or automatically translate into power proper, but I think once you spell out the scale of Chinese economic achievement and the potential that lies ahead, that's a pretty important starting point for any discussion of this nature. Of course the other side has a formidable combination of talent when it comes to geopolitics, so I certainly won't be neglecting that.”
On the rise of China: “I think it's the most important phenomenon of our time. I think this is a hugely important subject and I have greatest respect for the other side, so I think we're going to have a fascinating evening.”
A few words about Mr. Kissinger: “I think this is the kind of debate in which you should expect a good deal of intellectual sophistication. This will not be a partisan debate. As Henry Kissinger's authorized biographer, I'm unlikely to engage in great rhetorical broadsides against him, [but] of course he may feel free to engage in them against me. It's an unusual lineup in that sense.
“One of the principles on which we agreed when I embarked on this is that there would be no holds barred. I'll be as free to speak my mind on Friday night as I will be to speak my mind or write my mind when I finish the book.”
