Jack Layton’s grave illness is a devastating reminder of how swiftly fate can change everything. Here’s a man at the peak of his powers who, just a few months ago, achieved an astonishing triumph that took everyone by surprise. He took his party further than it had ever gone. And he’s widely liked and universally respected. He should be able to enjoy it.
But life is brutally unfair sometimes. His new fight will be dark and difficult. Most of us understand this far too well. Almost everyone has shared in the pain and grief of a dreadful diagnosis inflicted on someone we love. Mr. Layton’s struggle feels so personal because we know how hard this is going to be. Everyone hopes Jack will be all right. No one wants to say he might not be.
More than any other federal leader in recent times, Jack Layton is the party’s brand. He kept the NDP on the map even as the country shifted toward the centre. He won 103 seats not because the electorate had shifted left, but because people liked his brand of progressive optimism.
In Quebec, they felt he spoke their language – literally. His colloquial workingman’s French allowed people to ignore his patrician anglo roots. I doubt that most Quebeckers who voted for him had the foggiest idea what’s in the official NDP platform. They didn’t even have the foggiest idea who their local candidates were. It didn’t matter, because they were voting for le bon Jack.
Mr. Layton benefited from several twists of fate. Like a termite-ridden house, the Bloc Québécois was ready to collapse. So were the Liberals. He caused none of this, but was able to capitalize when it happened.
It’s been a while since any federal party’s fortunes were so dependent on one man. Stephen Harper maintains an iron grip on the Conservatives. But if he disappeared tomorrow, plausible successors wouldn’t be hard to find. The NDP has no one else with any profile outside the Press Gallery (except Thomas Mulcair, in Quebec). Certainly no one else possesses Jack’s star power, to say nothing of his superb ability to forge consensus and bury ideological differences for the sake of practical goals – i.e., getting elected. Mr. Layton is quite simply the most likeable federal leader of any party in years. Can you imagine where the NDP would be today if Audrey or Alexa were still in charge? (Who? Precisely.)
When Parliament resumes this fall, we’ll probably be in the peculiar position of having three opposition parties with temporary leaders. This won’t matter the way it would if Mr. Harper still had a minority. He can do whatever he wants now, and nobody can stop him. Yet, Mr. Layton’s absence likely means that Bob Rae (and not Nycole Turmel, Mr. Layton’s greenhorn understudy) will be the most important voice in opposition. Mr. Rae has scarcely any party of his own to lead, but he does have profile, smarts and superb mastery of the sound bite. Also, the Liberals need a merger. Jack said no. But if he’s off the stage, that door might open.
The NDP is much larger and more robust than when Mr. Layton took it over. It has a highly competent team of senior operatives and a gung-ho slate of newcomers whose energy and morale are high. They will be determined to do Mr. Layton proud. Yet, it’s hard to see how the party will be able to spread its wings any further – especially without the man who flew so high and brought it so far.
If toughness and determination alone could win this battle, then Mr. Layton will be back. He has told friends that his father, who was diagnosed with prostate cancer, made the mistake of giving up too soon. He has no intention of doing that. But fate has a way of playing havoc with lives and politics alike – as the world knows far too well.
