One of the most disturbing revelations during the Manley panel’s visit to Afghanistan in 2007 was that Taliban attacks in Kandahar were being directed from sanctuaries in Pakistan. The open border provided an all-too-easy escape route. At that time, suggestions of Pakistani complicity in this subterfuge were common but muted. Given recent testimony at a U.S. Senate hearing by Admiral Mike Mullen, who stepped down as chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff last month, the assumed concerns are now openly acknowledged.
Adm. Mullen declared that “the Haqqani network … acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency.” Cellphones seized during the raid on Osama bin Laden’s home and after the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul provided evidence of direct ties between the ISI and the Haqqani foot soldiers. Moreover, the fact that Osama bin Laden had been safely ensconced for several years in a villa some 30 kilometres from Pakistan’s version of West Point obviously shook the confidence of those in the U.S. military, notably Adm. Mullen, who had regarded Pakistan as a trusted ally. That strategic link has been shattered, and the consequences could be traumatic for the region.
As members of John Manley’s Independent Panel on Canada’s Future Role in Afghanistan, we wondered just how difficult it must be for Canadian soldiers to battle an enemy that had unfettered movement across the Afghan-Pakistani border. We were told that action against the Taliban inside Pakistan was precluded because of Washington’s strategic ties to Islamabad, including the importance of Pakistan as a transit point for U.S. and NATO supplies being shipped to Afghanistan, along with the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear weapons state.
These “strategic” considerations outweighed operational concerns. Turning a blind eye to the Taliban refuge in Pakistan is one thing, but ignoring the overt abetting of attacks in Afghanistan would be quite another.
The public airing of diplomatic disputes between erstwhile allies is a sure sign that the element of trust so vital to effective collaboration has been broken. Adm. Mullen may seem an odd choice to deliver the message, but it was clearly intended to register with Pakistan’s power elite: the army. (Pakistan has sometimes been described derisively as “not a country with an army but rather an army with a country.”) In any event, this dispute will not be easy to repair, and a period of serious strain between the U.S. and Pakistan seems inevitable, with troubling regional consequences.
The U.S.-Pakistani relationship is poisoned, but the Americans are not entirely blameless. They have thrown hundreds of millions of dollars at Pakistan, mainly to the military and without proper conditions. This has contributed to political corruption and irresponsible behaviour by the Pakistani army.
Islamabad will most certainly invoke its China card to counter any drastic U.S. moves, but, as Beijing’s recent decision to cancel a $19-billion mining investment in Pakistan suggests, China is likely to tread nimbly and refrain from actions that would destabilize a region whose borders it shares.
Knowing who your real allies are is a basic axiom for effective diplomacy as well as warfare. Some realignment of strategic links is more than overdue. The U.S. will undoubtedly review its $4-billion to $5-billion annual aid commitment to Pakistan. America’s allies in Afghanistan, including Canada, should do the same. Our panel report alluded to the underlying problem three years ago, saying “Pakistan’s own domestic political upheavals and recurring crises … complicate the region’s geopolitics.”
We recommended then that “Canada, in concert with key allies, should adopt a coherent diplomatic strategy that addresses regional risks and engages all the region’s actors, in particular Pakistan, to establish a more stable security environment.” The need for prudent reflection and serious recalibration of how our fundamental interests can best be served vis-à-vis Pakistan is now even more urgent.
Pakistan has to be pressed to clean up its act, but it can’t be isolated or shunned because its co-operation is key to some sort of broader regional agreement to stabilize Afghanistan.
Derek Burney, a senior strategic adviser to Norton Rose OR LLP, is a former Canadian ambassador to Washington.
