A decade from now, where and how we work will be so different that we may look back on 2010 the way we do a typewriter or a dial phone today.
But we can predict even now many of the changes and how we can respond to them. In work, as in life, it’s our response to challenges that’s crucial. As Mark Twain once said: “I’m all for progress. It’s change I object to.”
The Conference Board of Canada has just finished a two-year study – Navigating Through the Storm: Leaders and the World of Work in 2020 – and found 10 major changes that leaders need to understand now.
Boomers won’t leave. Generations will mix.
“Generational mixing” will be the norm as aging baby boomers stay on the payroll, either because they will need to earn more before retiring, or because changes in government regulations will make retirement less attractive.
Instead of waves of successive generations flowing through the workforce, boomers, Gen Xers (born 1966 to 1979) and Gen Yers (born 1980 to 2000) will share space, ideas, incomes and job titles.
The visible minority will be white.
A falling domestic birth rate combined with rising immigration will make Canada a country where the majority of urban workers are not white. This trend is already close to reality in Toronto, and it will open enormous opportunities for new products and services, improved access to global markets and a big competitive advantage for Canada.
The challenge? How to integrate visible minorities into every part of working life – especially at the top.
We will all be linked to work 24/7, whether we want to be or not.
A decade ago, BlackBerrys were just starting to tether us to work. IPods, iPhones and iPads didn’t exist. So think how completely technology will connect us a decade from now. Then think of the boundaries we will need to create to keep work from storming through our privacy and leisure time, which are also in for a major redefinition.
We will make more of what we consume, where we consume it.
Consumers today are creating their own books, software games and music. This trend, of producing the products you consume, is called “prosumerism,” and will spread quickly. This will spur producers to make their products consumer-friendly like never before.
The office will be where we say it is.
Work will be more and more delinked from location. The same technologies that keep us on constant call also let us do lots of productive work at a distance – in our living rooms, at a Starbucks or on a beach in Florida.
Social media will be the community halls of the future.
They will also create the factory floor and the office meeting room where groups of workers can collaborate on projects the way they now do socially on Facebook and Twitter.
Real companies will have virtual locations.
Some corporations have an online existence as robust, lively and profitable as their presence in the real world. A decade from now, virtual locations may outnumber bricks and mortar ones, with marketing either being almost all online, or driving consumers there.
Management will be pushed down and out.
Top-down, centralized leadership models will weaken as flexible work formations and management systems create highly decentralized workforces – and decision-making. In other words, if most of the workers are out of the office, sharing jobs or working only online, they’re hard for even General Patton to command and control.
Contingent workers will become unconditionally important.
More part-time, seasonal and contract workers will help companies adjust in advance to quick changes in the type and amount of work that needs to be done. But they will be less loyal and make it harder to enforce a single corporate culture.
Teamwork will be a learned skill, not just a nice attitude.
More outsiders, faster technology, wider networks, more complex problems – these are all arguments for more teamwork. In fact, in the age of mass collaboration, the ability to work on a team, and especially to lead it, will be one of the most important skills in any workplace.
If all these changes make you feel you are alone on the beach awaiting the tsunami, have hope. With the right combination of awareness and skills, the workplace of 2020 can create huge opportunities. In fact, Canada’s business leaders can employ a four-step process to figure out a plan of action:
First, understand the trends. You have to know what’s coming and separate what’s big from what just sounds that way.
Second, clarify the implications. Figure out what all this change will mean for your company or workplace.
Third, identify the needs and opportunities. Not just vaguely, but explicitly. Once you know the organizational changes that have to happen, set the strategies that will enforce those changes and not just react to them.
Finally, be sure your 2020 management team has now or is currently attaining the skills to make the most of these changes. After all, it wasn’t raining when Noah built the ark.
Michael Bloom is the vice-president of organizational effectiveness and learning at the Conference Board of Canada.
