It's now 25 years since the Ethiopian famines of the 1980s and the public's unprecedented outpouring of generosity to their fellow human beings on another continent. The question I'm always asked, of course, is: Was it worth it? What, after all, has changed in Ethiopia and in Africa as a whole? A great deal, I answer – for better and worse.
Last week, I was back in Ethiopia, where these two types of change are quite apparent. On the positive front, economic growth has boomed; next year, Ethiopia is expected to be among the world's top five fastest growing economies. Education enrolment has been doubled, malaria death rates halved and HIV-AIDS is on the decline. Mobile telephony is spreading (although it would be faster if privatized) and rural roads are linking remote communities to markets and health and education services.
Above all, although too many people are still reliant on food aid, famine will be avoided this year, as it has been for the past 18 years, as distribution and early warning systems have improved. Certainly, the government could be more transparent, but on the whole, this is a country making progress, in a continent that has been doing likewise.
Then there's the negative change – that of the climate. Many of the villagers I've met mark the mid-1980s as the moment when they really saw how their weather patterns were changing. Since then, increasingly erratic rainfall has forced them to radically alter their farming practices. Communities we visited in Tigray have had to rename the months of the year because the names were based on the seasons. They've now given up, as the pattern of the seasons has changed so quickly. People told us how reduced rainfall has cut their income from farming. This, in turn, strains the social fabric. Thefts are becoming more common, and children are forced out of school to work.
The tension between the positive and negative changes in Ethiopia is palpable. Which direction wins depends on the choices Ethiopians make and, to some extent, on us. And it's not all about us having to make sacrifices; there are opportunities, too. Whether you believe the scientific consensus about climate change, there's an inevitability to the way our own economies are adapting – and a rationale for us to buy into this change.
The inefficiencies of the hydrocarbon economy will be replaced by clean, cheap renewables; carbon finance trading will be a major industry in the near future. China is charging into renewables as Germany already has, with green jobs the fastest expanding new source of employment. Rather than deny these inexorable processes, we should embrace the opportunity they present if we are not to be left behind.
Investing in agriculture in Africa, both through government aid and private funds, is critical; it can also be highly profitable. Of all our undelivered development promises, the rich world's pledges on agriculture are especially crucial.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Africa's lead negotiator at the Copenhagen climate-change conference, told me wearily that he is skeptical about the international community's “funny money” and double bookkeeping. We talked about the promises of new money for agricultural investment made by the G8 in Italy last summer, money to tackle the global food crisis that will radically affect our supermarket prices. We talked about the possible pledges of funds to help poor countries adapt to climate change that could come out of Copenhagen. He fears both may well involve money already pledged elsewhere.
It's imperative that the Canadian government take the necessary steps at Copenhagen to restore Canada's tarnished international reputation with regard to climate change. It has some credibility in holding others to account on development promises. Build on that, as the whole world will be relying on Canadian leadership next summer when Canada plays host to the G8 and G20 summits. We will all be watching, hoping that Prime Minister Stephen Harper steps up to these responsibilities.
Twenty-five years ago, the story was one of Africa starving. Now, despite ongoing food shortages in some regions, there's a new story, one backed by hard statistics, of an Africa rising. The last continent to be developed, with a burgeoning middle class and 900 million producers and consumers, Africa is where some of the best returns on investment will be made in the next few decades. We must partner as we have promised with these people, for the sake of our global economy as well as our global environment, because, in another 25 years, we may need them more than they need us.
Bob Geldof is co-founder of the Africa campaign group ONE.
