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50 ridings to watch in the 2011 election Add to ...

Editor's note (April 1): A week on, after new reports and a flood of feedback, we've updated our predictions for the ridings of Nunavut, Egmont and Saanich-Gulf Islands.

See these ridings in a map of Canada: 50 ridings that could decide the election

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YUKON

1. Yukon

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: Larry Bagnell has been ensconced in Yukon for more than a decade. But his reluctant support for the gun registry makes him vulnerable, the Conservatives are convinced.





NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

2. Western Arctic, NWT

Projection: Leaning NDP

Why it's hot: Dennis Bevington voted to kill the gun registry. Nonetheless, the Conservatives will try to use the issue to take the riding from the NDP.





NUNAVUT

3. Nunavut

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Leona Aglukkaq, the Conservative Health Minister, won Nunavut in a tight three-way race. The Liberals and the NDP are both gunning for this one, but they've been slow to nominate candidates. This is putting both parties at a huge disadvantage - and may indicate that potential candidates don't like their odds.





BRITISH COLUMBIA

4. Burnaby-Douglas, B.C.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: NDP MP Bill Siksay was in for a fight, but he's not running again. This will be a hard-fought contest.



5. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, B.C.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: Liberal MP Keith Martin held the riding by 68 seats, and he's not running. The Tories think they can take it.

6. Newton-North Delta, B.C.

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: Whither the immigrant vote in this riding with a large South Asian presence?





7. Saanich-Gulf Islands, B.C.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Green Leader Elizabeth May has staked her future on taking this riding, campaigning almost exclusively there rather than mounting a national campaign. With Ms. May vying to unseat Gary Lunn, the Conservative Sports Minister, this is a clear Conservative-Green fight.



8. Vancouver Island North, B.C.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Catherine Bell won the riding in 2006 for the NDP and lost it in 2008 to the Conservatives. One of the NDP's best hopes in B.C.



9. Vancouver Kingsway, B.C.

Projection: Leaning NDP

Why it's hot: David Emerson was elected in 2006 as a Liberal, then switched to the Conservatives. When he retired, the voters opted in 2008 for the NDP in a tight three-way race. What's up with this fascinating riding this time?



10. Vancouver South, B.C.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: If you had to bet on one Liberal MP being defeated, this would be a good bet. Former premier Ujjal Dosanjh held the riding in 2008 by 22 votes.





ALBERTA



11. Edmonton-Strathcona, Alta.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: Not having every seat in Alberta is a personal affront to the Conservatives. They want this one back from the NDP





SASKATCHEWAN



12. Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Sask.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: The NDP came sooooo close in 2008, losing a riding they held in the 1990s by fewer than 300 votes. Next time lucky?





MANITOBA

13. Winnipeg North, Man.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: The Liberals snatched this formerly safe NDP seat in a 2010 by-election. The NDP wants it back.



14. Winnipeg South Centre, Man.

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: There is no love lost between Anita Neville and the Tories. The Conservatives came close last time.







ONTARIO

15. Oak Ridges-Markham, Ont.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: In 2008, Paul Calandra barely won against a strong Liberal opponent in a riding that is essentially a two-way race.



16. Brampton West, Ont.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: Brampton and Mississauga are ground zero for Conservative gains at the Liberal's expense. This is one of the most vulnerable ridings in the country for the Liberals.

17. Brampton-Springdale, Ont.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla never got over Nannygate. This is one of the most vulnerable ridings in the country for the Liberals.

18. Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Ont.

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: If the Tories really are galvanizing the immigrant vote, then we'll see it in ridings like this one.

19. Mississauga-Erindale, Ont.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Conservative MP Bob Dechert scraped in with a plurality of 239 votes in 2008. Eminently winnable for the Liberals if they have a good night.

20. York Centre, Ont.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: The Tory candidate, Mark Adler, has built a powerful machine. Liberal MP Ken Dryden will have to fight to hold on.

21. Mississauga South, Ont.

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: A perfect example of a long-held Liberal riding in Greater Toronto that is in danger of going Conservative.

22. Eglinton-Lawrence, Ont.

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: Italian Canadian voters are increasingly trending Conservative, making this perhaps the most winnable riding in Toronto for the Tories.



23. Trinity-Spadina, Ont.

Projection: Leaning NDP

Why it's hot: Every new condo in downtown Toronto delivers more Liberals to Trinity-Spadina. Or so goes the Liberal theory.



24. Guelph, Ont.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: Maybe the most vulnerable Liberal riding in the country. If Guelph University is out for the summer, even more dangerous for Liberals.

25. Kitchener Centre, Ont.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Kitchener was safely Liberal, before switching narrowly to the Conservatives in 2008. Former Liberal MP Karen Redman is running again. Can she win it back, or will the Conservatives become entrenched?

26. Kitchener-Waterloo, Ont.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Winning back the two Kitchener ridings, which were Liberal forever before narrowly going Conservative in 2008, is the sine qua non of a Liberal revival.

27. London North Centre, Ont.

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: Part university, part affluent city centre, part suburb. Liberal now, but vulnerable, especially if the students have left for the summer.

28. London West, Ont.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: The Liberals simply must win back ridings like this one, which went Tory in 2008 for the first time in 20 years.

29. Kingston and the Islands, Ont.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: This was a famous swing riding (Flora Macdonald held it) until Peter Milliken became Speaker of the House. Now he's leaving, and it's in play again.

30. Sault Ste. Marie, Ont.

Projection: Leaning NDP

Why it's hot: This riding will test whether the NDP's rural MPs will suffer from the party's decision to support saving the gun registry. Tony Martin voted to save the registry, and he was vulnerable to start with.





QUEBEC

31. Lac-Saint-Louis, Que.

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: This Montreal riding should be safe for the Liberals, but sports and business figure Larry Smith is running here for the Conservatives.



32. Ahuntsic, Que.

Projection: Leaning Bloc

Why it's hot: The Bloc took this from the Liberals in 2008, but only by a few hundred votes.

33. Papineau, Que.

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: The Bloc would love to claim this Montreal prize held by Justin Trudeau.

34. Outremont, Que.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: The fight between former Liberal cabinet minister Martin Cauchon and NDP deputy leader Thomas Mulcair promises to be one of the most exciting of the entire election.

35. Jeanne-Le Ber, Que.

Projection: Leaning Bloc

Why it's hot: This is former cabinet minister Liza Frulla's old riding and the Liberals would like it back.

36. Gatineau, Que.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: Bloc MP Richard Nadeau won a three-way split race. The best shot the Liberals have for a pickup outside Montreal, but also the NDP's best shot at winning a second seat in Quebec.

37. Pontiac, Que.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Lawrence Cannon, the Foreign Affairs Minister, faces many challenges, including keeping his seat.

38. Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Que.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Many Conservative ridings in Quebec are in peril, including this one in the Saguenay.



39. Jonquière-Alma, Que.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: The Bloc Québécois takes particular aim at Conservative cabinet ministers and will do everything it can to bring the Minister for Veterans Affairs down.

40. Louis-Hébert, Que.

Projection: Leaning Bloc

Why it's hot: This is a Quebec City riding that the Conservatives could take from the Bloc, though lack of Conservative financial support for a hockey arena might put it out of reach.

41. Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Que.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: The refusal to fund a Quebec City hockey arena has put the Conservative seats in this region at risk, especially this one.

42. Beauport-Limoilou, Que.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Another Conservative Quebec City at-risk seat. It was close last time. This time will be even closer.





NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

43. St. John's South-Mount Pearl, Nfld.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: Former Premier Danny Williams's Anyone But Conservative campaign helped send this to the Liberals in 2008. The Tories think they can reclaim it, but it's also the best chance the NDP has to pick up a second seat on the Rock.

44. Avalon, Nfld.

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: An Anyone-But- Conservative Liberal win that the Tories hope to take back.





PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

45. Egmont, PEI

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Fisheries Minister Gail Shea won the riding by fewer than 100 votes last time out. Vulnerable, but her solid performance in cabinet may have increased her support.



NEW BRUNSWICK

46. Fredericton, N.B.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: A long-time Liberal riding that only switched over in 2008 and could switch back.

47. Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, N.B.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: Very winnable for the Conservatives, and a lock if former premier Bernard Lord runs.

48. Saint John, N.B.

Projection: Too close to call

Why it's hot: Liberal MP Paul Zed lost this riding by fewer than 500 votes last time. The Liberals could well take it back.





NOVA SCOTIA



49. Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, N.S.

Projection: Leaning Liberal

Why it's hot: The NDP poll a strong second in this Halifax-area riding, and have held it in the past.



50. South Shore-St. Margaret's, N.S.

Projection: Leaning Conservative

Why it's hot: Barely 1,000 votes separated the Conservatives and the NDP in 2008.



See these ridings in a map of Canada: 50 ridings that could decide the election





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