Until recently, it looked like Ontario's first minority government since the 1980s would get through at least a year before the inevitable election speculation ramped up.
Then it became clear how much Dalton McGuinty is prepared to test opposition parties with austerity measures such as the ones announced Sunday – a slowing of planned increases to the Ontario Child Benefit and a freeze of social-assistance rates.
Given the urgency of tackling a $16-billion deficit before it leads to a debt crisis, it's a relief that Tuesday's budget won't just see the government in a holding pattern, preoccupied by its own survival. But the defeat of that budget would only give markets and credit raters further reason to worry about the state of the province's finances.
And while it's still a remote possibility, it's no longer unimaginable that Mr. McGuinty has overplayed his hand.
Both the Liberals and Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives, who have made a show of opposing virtually every government policy but are nowhere near election-ready, have been counting on the third-party NDP to back the budget. But in recent weeks, as the Liberals have signalled a sharp shift toward leaner government, New Democrats have begun sending signals that their support shouldn't be taken for granted.
Decisions such as the ones unveiled by the Premier on Sunday are part of the equation. While somewhat offset by efforts to spread the pain, likely including a cancellation of further corporate tax cuts, there are only so many affronts to NDP values that can be crammed into the budget before Andrea Horwath's party feels compelled to vote against it.
Meanwhile, aggressive moves on wage costs may cause New Democrats to see political opportunity. Mr. McGuinty has eaten their lunch by forging a close relationship with organized labour; the chance to finally reclaim some of that support could be too much to pass up.
Perhaps the biggest risk of post-budget volatility comes from policy decisions that disproportionately affect certain opposition-held ridings. How, for instance, will northern members – who make up a significant chunk of the NDP caucus – support a budget that includes a shut-down of the Ontario Northland Transportation Commission?
With the looming cancellations of hospital and other infrastructure projects, there will be more regional flare-ups. If enough of them add up, caucus hawkishness could become a stronger force than strategic considerations – and not just in the NDP.
Absent New Democratic support or abstention, the next best hope for the budget's passage would be Mr. Hudak telling a couple of his MPPs to call in sick when it comes time to vote. But an over-the-top reaction to the cancellation of supports for the provincial horse-racing industry has already shown that Mr. Hudak has tenuous control over his largely rural caucus, and that's before MPPs find out what other cuts land in their backyards.
For all that, both opposition parties know Mr. McGuinty's willingness to test them is born partly of awareness that his Liberals are the closest to being election-ready. The Tories have yet to craft a policy agenda, or even name a new campaign team, and it's unclear how conservatives would campaign against austerity. While slightly more stable, the NDP hasn't had time to fix the sub-par ground game that limited its gains last fall.
So the odds remain that cooler heads will prevail. But a province already in the grips of economic and fiscal upheaval is about to face at least a glimpse of political turmoil on top of it.
Adam Radwanski