Greg Lyle (former chief of staff for Manitoba premier Gary Filmon, and managing director of the Innovative Research Group): Can the opposition make Canadians care about prorogation? Arguably Canadians already do care. But is prorogation the most important issue for the opposition? I think not.
Two polls that say Canadians are aware of prorogation and a majority don't like it. Other polls have suggested the Conservative numbers are slipping in part due to negative reaction to the prorogation announcement. But the Conservatives don't need 50 per cent. They only need 40 per cent in the right places. The opposition doesn't need issues that have the government off side with half the public. They need issues that have the government offside with 70 per cent of the likely voters.
For Tory opponents, prorogation is further proof of Tory arrogance and lack of accountability. Given the Liberal vote has been running below their brand loyalty (not even all the people who see themselves as Liberals have been willing to vote Liberal) prorogation gives the Liberals an issue they can use to rally their base.
For Jack and Jill Everyday, the Prime Minister's incremental assaults on our democratic traditions can't compete with daily worries like paying down credit cards and finding affordable child care.— Liberal strategist Scott Reid
However, for swing voters and non-voters who might be mobilized to vote for the opposition and against the Tories, prorogation is an “inside the beltway” issue. The fact that prorogation is being used to avoid accountability for how Afghan prisoners were treated is not going to be a major topic of conversation in coffee shops like the Ruby restaurant in Corner Gas. And it is in those conservations that a majority government will be won or lost.
While the opposition and punditry are talking about prorogation and Afghans, the government is moving to steal a march on its opponents by talking about the next big thing in politics – where the country goes now that we have weathered the financial crisis. This involves both the country's economic strategy and its fiscal strategy.
When people at the Ruby talk about current events and politics, they are talking about economic uncertainty and what it means in terms of questions like jobs and retirement savings, not prorogation. Federal and provincial deficits and the decisions they force on government will be the major factor driving political news for the next two or three years.
The government, through its consultation exercise, is now trying to shift channels to the next budget and what it says about the economy and the deficit. If the government succeeds in defining that debate, they are well on their way to winning the next election. If the opposition fails to challenge the government in framing the issue because they are running after prorogation, the opposition will only have itself to blame as Stephen Harper celebrates his majority win.
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff holds a news conference in front of empty halls and the House of Commons on Friday, January 8, 2010.
Scott Reid (former communications director for Paul Martin, and principal with the speechwriting company Feschuk-Reid): Stephen Harper has already overreached on the issue of prorogation. Michael Ignatieff would be well counselled to not do likewise.
Clearly, fresh public opinion data from EKOS suggests the Prime Minister's dismissal of the democratic inconvenience known as Parliament is no hit with Canadians . Perhaps that will serve as a caution to a leader who routinely justifies his actions on the basis of whether or not swing voters care – as opposed to that lonely old standard known as right and wrong.
